Apr. 11

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News from the Votemaster

Former Georgia congressman Bob Barr is running for the nomination of the Libertarian Party for President. He is likely to inherit a lot of the enthusiastic support Ron Paul (who ran for President on the Libertarian ticket on 1988 and came in third with over 400,000 votes) had. Barr is likely to drain off more Republican votes from John McCain than Ralph Nader will drain off from the Democratic nominee. Many traditional Republicans don't like McCain and don't trust him and may see a vote for Barr as a way to send a message to the Republican party. After what happened in Florida in 2000, few Democrats are going to be willing to throw their vote away this time. Don't put too much stock in statements like "If {Hillary | Barack} doesn't win the nomination, I'm staying home." It's all bluster. By November most will hold their noses and vote for the Democrat.

If you don't know anything about the Libertarians, check them out on Wikipedia. It is by far the largest third party in America, has run candidates for President in the past nine elections and has 600 party members holding local office around the country. It also has a consistent platform that it has had for decades emphasizing free markets, free trade, and the basic idea that consenting adults should be able to do whatever they want to if it doesn't directly hurt anyone else (such as own a gun, visit a prostitute, or have an abortion). It is already on the 2008 ballot in more than half the states and is working on the rest. In a close election, it could be a factor.

Puerto Rico is is considered a "state" for purposes of sending delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It is allocated 63 of them. The first poll there shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama for the June 1 primary 50% to 37%. She is generally popular with Latinos, of which Puerto Rico has many. Also, many Puerto Ricans have relatives in New York City and they have undoubtedly sent back the word that she is somebody they can count on.

Howard Dean has said that the candidate he most feared was Mitt Romney, in part because he is a good speaker. He also cited Romney's personal fortune (probably in the $250 million ballpark). McCain's no pauper though. His beer-heiress wife is estimated to be worth at least at least $100 million. But McCain doesn't drink beer (or other forms of alcohol).

No new polls today.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com