I'm on the road and updates may be minimal and sporadic this week.
Three new polls today. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is still
ahead of Barack Obama, but her lead is a bit smaller than it has
been in the past. On the plus side for her, in Indiana, the first recent
poll gives her a substantial lead over Obama. This is good news indeed
for her since even a small victory in Pennsylvania will not close the
gap with Obama in terms of delegates. Victories in Indiana, West Virginia,
and Kentucky will give her some momentum. On the other hand,
Obama victories in North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota may roughly
cancel them out
and in terms of delegates, things may end up where they are now.
Here isthe primary polling data.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
Indiana
SurveyUSA
Mar. 31
52%
43%
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
Mar. 31
47%
42%
Pennsylvania
SurveyUSA
Mar. 31
53%
41%
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
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