May 30

Senate map and races Previous report Next report News: Updated May 30 Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%   In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets tomorrow and will decide what to do about Florida and Michigan. Most likely result on Florida is seating all the delegates but with half a vote each. Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot, will be a bit trickier, but undoubtedly some compromise will come out. Chances are Clinton will pick up a few dozen delegates but not enough to make much of a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

Nanyc Pelosi and Harry Reid are now starting to push the supers, many of whom are representatives or senators, to get off the fence. After Wednesday, when the Montana and South Dakota voters have spoken, there is no excuse saying "I'm waiting to see what the voters want." By Wednesday morning, every Democratic voter who wanted to speak will have had the opportunity. It is expected that large numbers of supers will commit next week.

No primary polls today, but we have several general election polls.

Of special note is a Rasmussen poll for MS-B, where appointed senator Roger Wicker is trying to get elected to the rest of Trent Lott's term. It is a dead heat between Wicker and former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), a conservative Democrat, with Musgrove ahead 47% to 46%. The Democrats are very likely to pick up Republican seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico and have reasonable chances in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. If now Mississippi (and North Carolina) are in play, as recent polls suggest, the Republicans have major battles on their hands in 10 senatorial contests. A year ago nobody would have believed in five battles to be possible. Only one Democrat, Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is in any danger, and probably not that much, really. At this point, a Democratic win of 5-10 seats in the Senate looks very plausible.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

From the table below, it is clear that Obama's lead is now about 200 delegates.

Delegates

Needed to win: 2026

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com