May 22

Senate map and races Previous report Next report News: Updated May 22 Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%   In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

Something odd happened Tuesday: Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton solidly among working class white voters in Oregon. He won in all age groups except over 60 and he won among voters making under $50,000 a year and he won among voters without college degrees. Given the demographics of Oregon, nearly all these people are white. Thus it indeed seems he has an Appalachia problem rather than a generic blue-collar problem. He will no doubt work on this by emphasizing bread-and-butter issues like jobs and mortgage relief in the general election. Earlier in the year he talked about a big plan to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, a project that would create a lot of jobs. He might put that back on the table as a way to appeal to Appalachian voters, many of whom are hurting economically.

The saga of Vito Fossella (R-NY) in NY-13 is not over. The Hill reports that he may go to jail for drunken driving (not for having two families, that's fine). If he goes to jail, there will be immense pressure on him to resign from Congress to avoid bad PR. If he resigns before July 1, Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) has the option of calling a special election. Given that Democrats have won three contested special elections in a row in highly Republican territory, Paterson may well call a special election in this D+1 district and the Democrats may pick up another House seat. If Fossella stays in the House until after July 1, the seat will remain vacant until January.

The senatorial committees have reported their April numbers as follows:

The congressional committees have also reported on April as follows:

No new primary polls today, but there are several general election polls.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Delegates

Needed to win: 2026

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com