May 02

Senate map and races Previous report Next report News: Updated May 02 Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%   In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

We have new polls in both Indiana and North Carolina today, as well as one in Oregon.

We also have some general election polls.

Finally, here are all the polls for both Indiana and North Carolina for the past two weeks.

President Bush is the least popular President since polling began in the 1940s. According to a new CNN poll, 71% of Americans disapprove of the way he is doing his job. No President has ever topped 70% before, not even Richard Nixon before he resigned. This is going to put John McCain on the spot in September. Does he want to allow Bush to speak at the Republican National Convention? The poll numbers suggest telling Bush to go cut some brush on his "ranch" (which is just a normal house without any livestock) but the 29% who think Bush is OK are a key part of the Republican base and they have their doubts about McCain to start with. Insulting the President isn't going to win their hearts and minds. Obama has now thrown Rev. Wright under the bus. Is McCain going to do the same with Bush? Presidents have to make tough choices and this one will be watched closely. If McCain tells Bush to stay in Texas he may gain some independents at the price of alienating his base. If he invites Bush to speak, the Democrats are going to yell "Bush III" which will scare the independents. Maybe McCain could compromise and invite Bush to speak at 3 A.M. Central Time to an empty hall?

Several supers went public yesterday. Also one super switched in an especially painful moment for Hillary Clinton. Joe Andrew, former chairman of the DNC appointed by then-President Bill Clinton jumped ship and announced he is now for Obama. Below is the current score from seven different sources. The mean of these numbers is Clinton 1596, Obama 1733 for a total of 3329 delegates accounted for so far. The number of delegates is expected to be 4047 (but could change depending on the special elections in MS-01 and LA-06 later this month as well as potential seating of Florida and Michigan). This means that 718 delegates are yet to announce or be chosen. To reach 2024, Obama needs 291 and Clinton needs 428. In terms of percentages, Obama needs 41% of the rest and Clinton needs 60% of the rest.

Actually, it is tougher for Clinton than that appears. North Carolina and Indiana vote on Tuesday. Suppose Obama wins 55% of North Carolina's 115 pledged delegates for a total of 63 and Clinton wins 55% of Indiana's pledged delegates for a total of 40. Then Clinton will have 1636 and Obama will have 1796 with 615 left to go. Then as of Wednesday, Obama will need 228/615 = 37% of the rest and Clinton will need 388/615 = 63%. The remaining "states" are Guam (4 delegates), West Virginia (28 delegates), Kentucky (51 delegates), Oregon (52 delegates), Puerto Rico (55 delegates), Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates). Clinton is expected to Win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico and Obama is expected to win Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Nobody has a clue who is going to win Guam. In fact, probably 99% of the voters don't know what it is, where it is, or why it has something to do with Democrats. Actually, it is in the southern Mariana Islands in the Pacific Ocean, which are in the news quite a bit because they are one of the few places you can run a sweatshop (especially in the northern Marianas) and exploit workers and still get a "Made in U.S.A." label on the clothes you make there. The Marianas are a U.S. territory. Guam was won from Spain in the war of 1898. The rest were acquired as booty from defeated Japan after WWII.

Delegates

Needed to win: 2025

Here is another source for delegate totals.

In a special election in LA-06, it looks like Democrats are poised to take a heavily Republican seat as Don Cazayoux (D) is leading Woody Jenkins (R) 50% to 41% according to a new SurveyUSA poll. The election is tomorrow.

Check back Monday for a detailed analysis of how delegates are chosen in Indiana.

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