Apr. 19

Senate map with polls Previous report Next report News: Updated Apr. 19 Both beat McCain ≥ 5% McCain beats both ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5% Obama > Clinton by < 5% Clinton > Obama by < 5% Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%   In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

We have a whole batch of new general election polls today. Here they are:

With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties. With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties. Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true. Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses. Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play. If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes and the new House would choose the President. For the maps and details, click on the Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain links above.

Stu Rothenberg has come out with new ratings on House races. However, some of these are definitely arguable.. For example, he rates Nancy Boyda's seat (KS-02) as a tossup, despite an extremely bitter Republican primary between former congressman Jim Ryun and state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Defeating an incumbent is hard enough without the opposition being bitterly divided.

A bill that would have reimbursed states for getting rid of their untrustworthy electronic voting machines and would have replace them with good old paper ballots got a majority of votes in the House but failed to get the necessary 2/3 for fast track adoption. As a result, many electronic voting machines will be used in November, with all the well-known problems of these machines, such as the inability to do recounts. For more on this, click here.

Here are the new primary polls today.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

WWW www.electoral-vote.com