Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

Apr. 02

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

	Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
	McCain beats both ≥ 5%
	Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
	Obama > Clinton by < 5%
	Clinton > Obama by < 5%
	Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%

In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better. Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly But white centers are statistical ties.

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News from the Votemaster

I'm on the road and updates may be minimal and sporadic this week.

Three new polls today. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is still ahead of Barack Obama, but her lead is a bit smaller than it has been in the past. On the plus side for her, in Indiana, the first recent poll gives her a substantial lead over Obama. This is good news indeed for her since even a small victory in Pennsylvania will not close the gap with Obama in terms of delegates. Victories in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky will give her some momentum. On the other hand, Obama victories in North Carolina, Montana, and South Dakota may roughly cancel them out and in terms of delegates, things may end up where they are now.

Here isthe primary polling data.

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	McCain	Huckabee	Paul
Indiana	SurveyUSA	Mar. 31	52%	43%
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	Mar. 31	47%	42%
Pennsylvania	SurveyUSA	Mar. 31	53%	41%

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source	Clinton	Obama	BHO-HRC	Edwards	McCain	Romney	Huckabee	Paul
Washington Post	1501	1631	+130		1334		278
NY Times	1472	1626	+154	12	1162	142	232	5
AP	1500	1632	+132	18	1334	257	278	14
CNN	1486	1626	+140	26	1325	255	267	16
ABC	1497	1628	+131	32	1267	273	272	14
CBS	1492	1625	+133	26	1241	149	231	10
MSNBC	1507	1638	+131	26	1266	293	262	14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster