Apr. 03

Main page Previous report Next report     Strong Dem (48) Weak Dem (1) Barely Dem (2) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (1) Weak GOP (4) Strong GOP (44) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

The Republicans have 21 seats at stake in 2008 and the Democrats have just 12. Nevertheless, many of these are safe seats, so the numbers don't tell the whole story. Below are the races expected to be competitive. However, potential retirements in half a dozen states could easily change the picture. See also our list of all 2008 Senate races.

Colorado

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(D)	When he was first elected in 1996, Wayne Allard promised to serve only two terms. True to his word, he has announced he will not run for a third term. Colorado has been trending Democratic in recent years. While George Bush carried the state by 6% in 2004, Colorado also elected Ken Salazar (D) to the Senate the same year and just elected Bill Ritter (D) governor by 15%. Furthermore, the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. Colorado will be the Democrats' number 1 target in 2008. Rep. Mark Udall and Denver mayor John Hickenlooper are the most likely Democratic challengers.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mary Landrieu (D)	(R)	Mary Landrieu is one of the two Democrats who barely squeaked by in 2002, having won in a runoff with 52%. The Republicans have her in their crosshairs. They might try to blame hurricane Katrina on her (or more specifically, her response to it), but that would be playing with fire as she would would likely then blame the Republican administration. Her net approval rating is +10%--not great--so this is one of the Republicans best chances for a pickup. Landrieu trivia: Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of New Orleans from 1970 to 1978, and her brother is the current Lt. Governor of Louisiana.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Norm Coleman (R)	(D)	Norm Coleman will be the Democrats top target in the Senate in 2008. He won his seat in 2002 by a tiny margin after his Democratic opponent, Paul Wellstone, was killed in a plane crash two weeks before the election. The Democrats hastily got former Vice President Walter Mondale to take Wellstone's slot on the ticket, but Mondale was unable to do what Frank Lautenberg pulled off in New Jersey--suddenly jump in and win. Both parties are keenly aware that in Nov. 2006, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) crushed Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) by over 20% for an open Senate seat.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Sununu (R)	(D)	John Sununu had not really been on the radar until Nov. 7, 2006, when a political tsunami hit New Hampshire. John Lynch (D) was reelected to a second two-year term with an incredible 74% of the vote, the largest percentage in a gubernatorial race in state history. A totally unknown antiwar activist, Carol Shea-Porter (D), defeated incumbent congressman Jeb Bradley (R) in NH-01 and lawyer Paul Hodes (D) defeated incumbent congressman Charlie Bass (R) in NH-02. The Democrats also swept to power in both houses of the state legislature for the first time since 1874. In this climate, if Gov. Lynch decides to run for the Senate instead of for governor in 2008, Sununu is in deep dudu. Sununu trivia: His father was governor of New Hampshire and Bush 41's chief of staff.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Johnson (D)	(R)	Tim Johnson is one of the two most endangered Democratic senators. He got just 50% of the vote in 2000 against John Thune, who ran again in 2004 and beat Tom Daschle. Furthermore, South Dakota is a heavily Republican state. Despite his narrow win in 2002, Johnson has a +46% net approval rating, so the people of South Dakota like the way he is doing his job. Unfortunately, Johnson suffered a cerebral hemorrhage Dec. 13, 2006. He was operated on immediately. If he lives, he can continue to serve in Senate no matter what his condition. Sen. Karl Mundt (R-SD) had a stroke in 1969 and continued to serve for three years without once visiting the Senate. If Johnson declines to run for reelection, the Democratic nominee will almost certainly be Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD), South Dakota's at-large congresswoman, who was reelected in 2006 with 70% of the vote. Although young (36), she has generations of experience: her grandfather was governor of SD, her grandmother was Secretary of State, and her father was a state senator.