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News from the Votemaster

Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson (R) and Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) have joined the race for the Republican nomination for President. Thompson was a popular governor and then cabinet secretary in the Bush administration. His biggest problem will probably be people confusing him with former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) who seems interested in running too but has not yet announced.

Tancredo is a one-issue candidate--immigration--who has no chance of winning but who has a big chance of making immigration a topic the other candidates cannot avoid, something they desperately want to do because the Republican party is badly split on this issue. Tancredo and the other build-a-big-electric-fence types don't want any more immigrants, especially not Mexicans. On the other hand, big business loves immigrants because they work for peanuts and don't complain. Karl Rove also sees a pro-immigrant policy as helping to peel Latinos away from the Democrats. Consequently, Republicans don't want to talk about immigration at all. Tancredo's entry makes the subject hard to avoid since he is Johnny-one-note on immigration. Every time he makes an inflammatory statement, the press will ask the other candidates to respond, something they would rather not do. For the Democrats the situation is simpler. They are pro-immigrant and anti-fence as the only constituency within the party that wants to keep immigrants out is organized labor, and they are a shadow of their former selves. Besides, the immigrants tend to take low-skill jobs that don't threated unionized factory workers directly.

Here are some more state polls. As usual, Iowa is the most important, but take all this data with a barrel of salt.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%
 
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%
 
Arkansas ARG Mar. 23 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%
 
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%
 
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%
 
Delaware FDU Feb. 25 34% 19% 10% 0% 0% 0%
 
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%
 
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%
 
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%
Iowa ARG Mar. 22 34% 33% 16% 29% 29% 10%
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%
 
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%
 
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%
 
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35% 0%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%
 
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%
 
Nevada Susquehanna Mar. 9 32% 17% 16% 34% 19% 19%
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%
 
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%
 
New Jersey FDU Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%
 
New Mexico ARG Feb. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%
 
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%
 
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%
 
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%
 
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%
 
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%
 
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%
 
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15% 0% 0% 0%
 
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%
 
Texas ARG Mar. 23 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%
 
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%
 
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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