Superguru Charlie Cook has an interesting
article on party
affiliation. He reports on a Gallup poll that asks people which party people identify with or
lean towards. In this poll, the Democrats lead 50.4% to 40.2%, with the rest refusing to state
a preference. While presidential elections depend largely on the personality of the candidates,
and to some extent Senate elections do too, many people don't know much about their congressman
and just vote their favorite party's candidate. This poll does not bode well for the Republicans
chances of picking up the 15 seats they need to recapture the House in 2008. Cook goes on to point
out that in such a climate, we can expect some elderly Republican representatives to throw in the
towel and retire rather than face defeat. Such open seats will mean the
Republicans have to play defense as well as offense.
Presidential campaigns have a funny way of turning on unexpected events. Dave Michaels on
PoliticalDerby.com
has compiled a
potential list.
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