Feb. 17 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

 
Senate map with polls
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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  


News from the Votemaster

While the polls have close to no predictive value at this stage of the game (Bill Clinton ranked 11th at this point in 1992), at least the state polls are more useful than the national polls the media are obsessed with. Being ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire is a lot more important than being ahead nationally. Thus I have collected the most recent state polls below for your amusement. But more interesting, will be to have these to examine, say, 10 months from now.

Remember Harold Wilson's words: In politics, a week is a long time. Here are just a couple of the things that could happen in the next few months:

  • A front runner could stumble (ask ex-Sen. George "Macaca" Allen about this)
  • A new candidate could jump in (Al Gore? Newt Gingrich? Jim Webb?)
  • April 23 headlines might read: Woman Elected President of France; Is the U.S. next?
  • McCain, Giuliani and Gingrich collectively have five ex wives. Suppose one wrote a no-holds-barred book.

While all of these are speculative, it is virtually certain that some time next Fall the swiftboating will start. Count on these attacks:

  • Clinton: Opportunist with no core principles
  • Edwards: Trial lawyers are a sleazy lot
  • Obama: Too inexperienced
  • Giuliani: Too many wives and mistresses; is pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control
  • McCain: Hypocrite if he rejects the McCain-Feingold spending limits; not conservative enough
  • Romney: Used to be fairly liberal on the issues; flip flops too much

When the candidates' histories start getting dredged up, the mud will begin to fly. Consider one simple example. If you are reading an election Website 21 months before the election, you are undoubtedly in the top 5% of all voters in terms of interest in and knowledge of politics. Congratulations! You surely know Barack Obama was a state senator in Illinois. What was his voting record like? Bet you don't know. Bet almost nobody knows. When the campaign heats up, everyone will know. Beat the crowd. Find out now.

      Democratic primary Republican primary
State Pollster End date Clinton Edwards Obama Giuliani McCain Romney
Alabama Capital Survey Jan 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%
California ARG Jan 17 36% 6% 33% 33% 18% 3%
Connecticut ARG Feb 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%
Florida ARG Jan 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%
Illinois ARG Jan 14 30% 5% 36% 33% 24% 12%
Iowa Zogby Jan 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%
Massachusetts ARG Feb 6 35% 19% 24% 29% 30% 7%
Maine ARG Feb 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%
Michigan ARG Jan 7 30% 17% 30% 34% 24% 10%
Missouri ARG Jan 9 30% 17% 18% 18% 31% 2%
New Hampshire Zogby Jan 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U Jan 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%
New Mexico ARG Jan 13 22% 12% 17% 38% 20% 7%
North Carolina ARG Jan 15 26% 30% 19% 34% 26% 2%
Ohio Quinnipiac U Jan 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%
Pennsylvania ARG Jan 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%
Rhode Island Brown U Jan 27 33% 8% 15%      
Vermont ARG Feb 6 37% 14% 19% 29% 30% 7%

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races:           President       Senate       House      

This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.




This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.




This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.



-- The Votemaster
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WWW www.electoral-vote.com

absentee ballot for overseas voter