While the polls have close to no predictive value at this stage of the game
(Bill Clinton ranked 11th at this point in 1992), at least the state polls are
more useful than the national polls the media are obsessed with. Being ahead in
Iowa and New Hampshire is a lot more important than being ahead nationally. Thus
I have collected the most recent state polls below for your amusement. But
more interesting, will be to have these to examine, say, 10 months from now.
Remember Harold Wilson's words: In politics, a week is a long time.
Here are just a couple of the things that could happen in the next few months:
A front runner could stumble (ask ex-Sen. George "Macaca" Allen about this)
A new candidate could jump in (Al Gore? Newt Gingrich? Jim Webb?)
April 23 headlines might read: Woman Elected President of France; Is the U.S. next?
McCain, Giuliani and Gingrich collectively have five ex wives. Suppose one wrote a no-holds-barred book.
While all of these are speculative, it is virtually certain that some time next Fall the
swiftboating will start. Count on these attacks:
Clinton: Opportunist with no core principles
Edwards: Trial lawyers are a sleazy lot
Obama: Too inexperienced
Giuliani: Too many wives and mistresses; is pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control
McCain: Hypocrite if he rejects the McCain-Feingold spending limits; not conservative enough
Romney: Used to be fairly liberal on the issues; flip flops too much
When the candidates' histories start getting dredged up, the mud will begin to fly.
Consider one simple example. If you are reading an election Website 21 months before the
election, you are undoubtedly in the top 5% of all voters in terms of interest in and
knowledge of politics. Congratulations! You surely know Barack Obama was a state senator in Illinois.
What was his voting record like? Bet you don't know. Bet almost nobody knows. When the
campaign heats up, everyone will know. Beat the crowd. Find out
now.
Democratic primary
Republican primary
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Alabama
Capital Survey
Jan 17
27%
14%
19%
20%
24%
3%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
Jan 22
32%
15%
18%
13%
40%
11%
California
ARG
Jan 17
36%
6%
33%
33%
18%
3%
Connecticut
ARG
Feb 6
40%
8%
10%
32%
21%
14%
Florida
ARG
Jan 9
30%
14%
15%
30%
15%
2%
Illinois
ARG
Jan 14
30%
5%
36%
33%
24%
12%
Iowa
Zogby
Jan 16
16%
27%
17%
19%
17%
5%
Massachusetts
ARG
Feb 6
35%
19%
24%
29%
30%
7%
Maine
ARG
Feb 6
41%
14%
17%
33%
22%
13%
Michigan
ARG
Jan 7
30%
17%
30%
34%
24%
10%
Missouri
ARG
Jan 9
30%
17%
18%
18%
31%
2%
New Hampshire
Zogby
Jan 17
19%
19%
23%
20%
26%
13%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U
Jan 22
30%
8%
16%
39%
21%
5%
New Mexico
ARG
Jan 13
22%
12%
17%
38%
20%
7%
North Carolina
ARG
Jan 15
26%
30%
19%
34%
26%
2%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U
Jan 28
38%
11%
13%
30%
22%
4%
Pennsylvania
ARG
Jan 8
32%
12%
13%
35%
25%
1%
Rhode Island
Brown U
Jan 27
33%
8%
15%
Vermont
ARG
Feb 6
37%
14%
19%
29%
30%
7%
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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