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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 238   Bush 291

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (147)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (60)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (31)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (9)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (88)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (31)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (172)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 14 New polls: FL MI NJ NC OH OK PA WI RSS

News from the Votemaster

Good news for George Bush, Ralph Nader, you, and me but no good news for John Kerry today. The good news for Bush is that he is now ahead by 1% in Florida , 48% to 47% and 1% in Pennsylvania , neither of which is statistically significant, of course. But this tiny shift in two key states puts him ahead in the electoral college again.

More good news for Bush is the Strategic Vision (R) poll in Ohio. They have Bush ahead 52% to 40%. However, the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll has Ohio as an exact tie at 47% each. To paraphrase Shakespeare: Something is rotten in the state of Ohio. Given the MoE of 3% these two results are not compatible. The Strategic Vision poll was taken Sept. 10-12 and the Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 6-12, so the Strategic Vision poll is more recent, but such a large change in such a short time is unlikely. Nevertheless, since Strategic Vision is more recent, it goes into the map and the spreadsheet.

The good news for Nader is that the Florida Divisions of Elections is putting him on the ballot despite a court order not to do so. In the old days, when Mayor Daley stole elections for the Democrats, at least he did it by getting dead people to vote in the dark of night. The Republicans are a lot more brazen. I suspect we haven't heard the last of this story.

The good news for you is the site has a new feature today. Many people have asked me for cartograms. Well, not quite. Actually, nobody has asked me for cartograms. But many people have ask for warped and distorted maps of the U.S. showing the states in proportion to their electoral votes. But I knew what they meant. These things are called cartograms and are widely used to show how different states, countries, or regions differ on some variable, such as population, beef production, or CDs purchased. The problem was finding a blank cartogram and writing the software. Mike at www.kerryedwardslinks.com made me a blank cartogram. Then Eric Paulson of Viking Web Development. wrote the software to color in the cartogram. Thanks to both of you. If you like this feature, you might want to check out their respective websites. Today's cartogram is here and will be updated daily. The old ones will be archived just as the maps are. The EVs are not listed in the cartogram. For once, Montana is too small to put any useful information in it. Your homework assignment for tomorrow is to memorize all the EVs.

For me, the good news is a new poll in Oklahoma so the projected final results does not show Kerry winning there, an exceedingly unlikely occurence.

Thanks to your generous donations, I am running ads for the site again. The current ones are listed at the bottom of the Donations page. I am also now looking at college newspaper websites as a place to run more ads. I'll keep you informed and again, thank you very much!

Projected Senate: 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
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-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com
overseas voter, absentee ballot

Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)