Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 290   Bush 244

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News from the Votemaster

The three "new" polls today are not really new, but they are better than what I had.

A reader suggested some enhancements to the Excel spreadsheet, which I have adopted. I think it is now more informative and more readable as well. Once issue concerns citing the polls used. I have had numerous e-mails to the effect "My grandmother lives in state X and she says there is no way [candidate Y] is going to win state X as you claim. Needless to say, most states are diverse by geography, ethnicity, social class, and more, so there may well be some voters your grandmother does not talk to much. In a professional poll with 500-1000 respondents, the various groups are (hopefully) sampled in proportion to their numbers in the population.

Very briefly summarized, most state polls are commissioned by local TV stations or newspapers and carried out by a polling company. For the battleground states, the national media sometimes commission polls. In the new Excel format, I list who ran the poll and when it ended. In a few cases, the TV station or newspaper keeps the identity of the polling company secret, in which case I cite the folks who paid for it rather than the folks who did it. This new information may not convince your grandmother, but now at least she knows whether to argue with Zogby or Rasmussen.

-- The votemaster