Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 311   Bush 227

Final polls Election:poll comparison Polling data     Key Previous report News   Strong Kerry (113) Weak Kerry (132) Barely Kerry (66) Exactly tied (0) Barely Bush (42) Weak Bush (40) Strong Bush (145) Needed to win: 270

Nov. 17

Exit polls at 4 p.m.

Welcome	FAQ	Donations	Electoral college
Electoral college graph	Compare the pollsters	Cartograms	Animated map
State poll graphs	State poll tables	Predicted final results	Averaged polls
Political humor	Political websites	Articles and books	Kerry and Bush records
Senate races	More data	Enhancements	Posters

News from the Votemaster

Here are the 4 p.m. exit poll data. The 4 p.m. exit polls were slightly skewed towards women since women tend to vote earlier in the day than men. The 4 p.m. polls had 58% women and 42% men, whereas the actual vote consisted of 52% women and 48% men. Since women are slightly more Democratic than men (by 7%), the exit poll at 4 p.m. is biased by a small amount towards Kerry. If 6% of the sample is made 7% more Republican, Bush gains about 0.4%. The later exit polls are not as pure a sample because actual tallied results were blended in as they became available.

-- The votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com