Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 259
News from the Votemaster
Just when it started to get exciting--the candidates are almost tied now--the data stops :-(. No new polls today except for a Rasmussen tracking poll for the month of August in Minnesota showing Kerry ahead by 4%. Since this poll is older than our current Minnesota poll, it won't be included.
Rasmussen also ran a poll Wednesday and Thursday asking which candidate's position people prefer on which issue. Bush is favored on the war in Iraq and taxes. Kerry is favored on social security, education, and health care.
The Senate page has updates on four states today: Colorado, Florida, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.
CNN had a story about the electoral college yesterday. They put the score at Kerry 264, Bush, 274. We agree on 46 states but differ on four states. CNN gives Wisconsin to Kerry; I have it currently for Bush. Personally, I think they are right, but the last poll puts Bush ahead. CNN awards Nevada and Tennessee to Bush; I have them for Kerry at the moment. Both are close. It is premature to call Nevada for Bush. It has gone back and forth several times. It is really a tossup. Tennessee should be an easy win for Bush, but the polls say otherwise and the many emails I have had from people in Tennessee also suggest otherwise. Finally, there is Colorado. In recent years it has gone Republican, but the polls say it is a tie now. The conventional wisdom would paint it red, but the data paints it white right now. It is interesting to note that if CNN is right except for Nevada, it is an exact tie, 269 to 269.
And finally, Colleen Shannon has also turned the maps into a movie. It differs somewhat from Matt Massie's movie in terms of extra information presented and features. Both can be found on the More data page.
To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. If you are visiting for the first time, welcome. This site has far more about the election than just the map. See the Welcome page for more details.