Oct. 28 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 51   GOP 48   Ties 1
House Dem 203   GOP 213   Ties 19

House races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report
Without Rasmussen

strong Dem Strong Dem (48)
weak Dem Weak Dem (1)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (4)
weak GOP Weak GOP (4)
strong GOP Strong GOP (40)
strong Ind Strong Ind (0)
weak Ind Weak Ind (0)
barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: AR CA CO GA ID IL KY LA MD NV NY OH PA WV iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR CO IL IN NV ND PA WI PDA

PW logo Johnson Maintains Lead in Close Race with Feingold Paul Headed for Big Win in Kentucky
Clinton Tried to Push Meek Out of Race Another Poll Shows Chafee in the Lead
Bonus Quote of the Day Voters Like Everyone Less

News from the Votemaster            

Campaign Spending May Reach 4 Billion Dollars     Permalink

The Center for Responsive Politics is estimating that this year the campaigns may spend about $4 billion. So far, the candidates themselves have raised $1.7 billion, the party committees have raised $1.1 billion, and outside groups have raised $400 million. This comes to a total of $3.2 billion so far, but the last 2 weeks have been a frenzy of raising money and buying ads. The candidates are likely to pass the $2 billion mark by themselves. Already the expenditures have passed the 2000 campaign, which was a presidential election year.

Another source of campaign funding is other politicians. House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has given the DCCC $1.75 million this cycle and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) has donated $1.6 million to the group he runs. Another big Democratic donor is Henry Waxman (D-CA), who has ponied up $850,000 so far. It is legal (and expected) that incumbent members of the House give some of the money they raise to the DCCC or NRSC, depending on which party they are in. Likewise, senators are expected to turn over some of their cash to the DSCC or NRSC. Generally it is members who are good fundraisers but are in no danger themselves who are the biggest contributors to the party committees.

The Hill: GOP to Set to Capture the House     Permalink

The Hill, a Washington Newspaper that follows what is going on in Congress, has released the final set of its House polls, which now total 42 districts. The polls were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland (see below). Based on their survey of 17,000 likely voters, The Hill is now predicting the Republicans will pick up something like 50 or so seats, enough to get a majority in the House.

Among other findings, long-term Democratic congressmen such as Allen Boyd (D-FL), Chet Edwards (D-TX), and John Spratt (D-SC) are all down by double digits. Also, an astounding 46% view the incumbency of their own representative as a negative factor. Normally, people like their own representative. They just don't like anyone else's. However, this 46% figure exhibits a strong partisan divide with Republicans opposing their representative 65% to 17% and Democrats supporting him or her by 67% to 16%. That is not entirely surprising, though, since the 42 districts polled are all districts viewed as likely to flip, and most of them have a Democratic incumbent.

Democratic Coalition Drifting Apart     Permalink

Key parts of the coalition that brought Barack Obama and the Democrats to power in 2008 are moving towards the Republicans according to a new NY Times/CBS poll. Women, independents, Roman Catholics, and the poor, all groups that voted strongly for the Democrats in 2008 and formed the backbone of the Democrats majority, are less solidly Democratic now. Many people are so unhappy with the state of the nation that they just want to get rid of the people in power. This poll agrees with many others that show people angry with the Democrats and prepared to vote for the Republicans--even though they hate the Republicans even more than they hate the Democrats. It is not very logical but shows that many voters are so angry at Washington that they are willing to try anything, even things they have tried before and know don't work.

To make this picture even more confusing, another poll shows that while people are angry with Obama, that doesn't mean they won't vote for him in 2012. A clear majority of all voters said that a Republican victory this year would not affect how they vote in 2012. Among independents, it was 62%. In other words, people are voting Republican this year to send the Democrats a message, not because they like the Republicans or intend to vote for them in the future.

Politician Speaks the Truth     Permalink

A politician speaking the unvarnished truth is so rare that it is actually newsworthy. Yesterday, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell was asked what his main goal for the next two years is and he said: "the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president." Now recall that McConnell is not chairman of the Republican National Committee, for whom this could be reasonably said to be his day job. McConnell is head of the Republican caucus in the Senate and would normally have talked about his legislative goals, such as repealing the healh-insurance law, seeing that the Bush tax cuts are made permanent, etc. But in an unguarded moment, he actually said what he was thinking. The DNC instantly seized on this remark and made a video out of it.

Palin Endorsement Map Now Available     Permalink

If you have lost track of who former Alaska governor Sarah Palin has endorsed and how well they have done, the Washington Post has produced a nice interactive map showing who her tweets have been supporting and how well they have worked. She has endorsed 56 candidates. Her won-lost record would be the envy of any major-league baseball player: she's batting .776 with 7 more at bats to go.

Today's Polls: AR CA CO GA ID IL KY LA MD NV NY OH PA WV + 19 House polls     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln* 36% John Boozman 48%     Oct 08 Oct 20 U. of Arkansas
California Barbara Boxer* 50% Carly Fiorina 45%     Oct 20 Oct 26 Opinion Research
Colorado Michael Bennet* 43% Ken Buck 42%     Oct 24 Oct 26 RBI Strategies
Colorado Michael Bennet* 44% Ken Buck 48%     Oct 25 Oct 25 Rasmussen
Colorado Michael Bennet* 46% Ken Buck 47%     Oct 20 Oct 26 Opinion Research
Georgia Mike Thurmond 29% Johnny Isakson* 59%     Oct 24 Oct 24 Rasmussen
Idaho Tom Sullivan 20% Mike Crapo* 64%     Oct 20 Oct 22 Mason Dixon
Idaho Tom Sullivan 20% Mike Crapo* 64%     Oct 20 Oct 22 Penn Schoen Berland
Illinois Alexi Giannoulias 42% Mark Kirk 46%     Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Kentucky Jack Conway 43% Rand Paul 50%     Oct 20 Oct 26 Opinion Research
Louisiana Charlie Melancon 38% David Vitter* 50%     Oct 21 Oct 24 Clarus
Maryland Barbara Mikulski* 64% Eric Wargotz 27%     Oct 19 Oct 22 Washington Post
Nevada Harry Reid* 45% Sharron Angle 49%     Oct 20 Oct 26 Opinion Research
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 57% Joseph DioGuardi 34%     Oct 18 Oct 24 Quinnipiac U.
Ohio Lee Fisher 37% Rob Portman 52%     Oct 22 Oct 26 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 40% Pat Toomey 48%     Oct 18 Oct 24 Franklin+Marshall Coll.
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 45% Pat Toomey 49%     Oct 20 Oct 26 Opinion Research
West Virginia Joe Manchin 49% John Raese 46%     Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen

New House Polls

CD Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
CO-03 John Salazar* 43% Scott Tipton 47%     Oct 19 Oct 21 Penn Schoen Berland
FL-02 Allen Boyd* 38% Steve Southerland 50%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Penn Schoen Berland
GA-08 Jim Marshall* 37% Austin Scott 50%     Oct 19 Oct 21 Penn Schoen Berland
IA-03 Leonard Boswell* 49% Brad Zaun 37%     Oct 19 Oct 21 Penn Schoen Berland
ID-01 Walt Minnick* 44% Raul Labrador 41%     Oct 20 Oct 22 Mason Dixon
ID-02 Mike Crawford 17% Mike Simpson* 67%     Oct 20 Oct 22 Mason Dixon
IN-07 Andre Carson* 50% Marvin Scott 37%     Oct 19 Oct 21 EPIC MRA
IN-09 Baron Hill* 46% Todd Young 44%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Penn Schoen Berland
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy* 45% Rick Berg 44%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Penn Schoen Berland
NJ-03 John Adler* 46% Jon Runyan 45%     Oct 23 Oct 24 Rutgers/Eagleton
NY-19 John Hall* 47% Nan Hayworth 46%     Oct 23 Oct 26 Siena Coll.
NY-24 Mike Arcuri* 48% Richard Hanna 43%     Oct 23 Oct 25 Siena Coll.
PA-10 Chris Carney* 45% Thomas Marino 39%     Oct 17 Oct 21 Lycoming Coll.
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski* 43% Lou Barletta 48%     Oct 19 Oct 21 Penn Schoen Berland
SC-05 John Spratt* 39% Mick Mulvaney 49%     Oct 16 Oct 20 Penn Schoen Berland
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin* 45% Kristi Noem 42%     Oct 16 Oct 19 Penn Schoen Berland
TX-17 Chet Edwards* 40% Bill Flores 52%     Oct 19 Oct 21 Penn Schoen Berland
WA-09 Adam Smith* 49% Dick Muri 46%     Oct 22 Oct 25 SurveyUSA
WI-08 Steve Kagen* 37% Reid Ribble 40%     Oct 23 Oct 24 PPP

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

WWW www.electoral-vote.com

Recent Headlines (clickable)

Oct27 Today's Polls: CA CT IL IN KY MD NC NV OH PA WI WV FL-08 IN-01/02 KY-03 MD-01 NJ-03/06 NY-20 VA-02/09
Oct27 Cook Predicts Republicans Will Capture the House
Oct27 Profile of Boehner
Oct27 Democratic Campaigns Have More Money Than Republican Ones
Oct27 Fiorina Hospitalized
Oct27 Today's Polls: CA CT IL IN KY MD NC NV OH PA WI WV FL-08 IN-01 IN-02 KY-03 MD-01 NJ-03 NJ-06 NY-20 VA-02 VA-09
Oct26 One Week to Go
Oct26 Enthusiasm Gap Hard to Measure
Oct26 Preview of 2012 Senate Races
Oct26 Today's Polls: AZ CO CT FL GA IL IN SC WV CA-20 HI-01 HI-02 MA-04 MA-10 MI-01 OR-01 OR-05 SD-AL
Oct25 Could O'Donnell Cost Republicans Two Senate Seats?
Oct25 We Might Not Know Who Won Before December
Oct25 Historic Split in Congress Possible
Oct25 Six Governors' Races to Watch
Oct25 Could O'Donnell Cost Republicans Two Senate Seats
Oct25 Huckabee Attacks Republicans
Oct25 Public Believes Facts that Don't Happen to Be True
Oct25 Today's Polls: CA CO FL IL IN ND OH PA KY-06 ME-01 ME-02 NJ-03
Oct24 Tea Party Study Shows Groups Have No Structure
Oct24 Obama May Be Secretly Hoping for a Republican Congress
Oct24 NRCC Gets 0 Million Credit Line
Oct24 Three Candidates Spend Quarter of a Billion Dollars
Oct24 Today's Polls: FL MD WA-02
Oct23 Democrats Support Tea Party Candidates
Oct23 State Legislatures Up for Grabs
Oct23 Young Voters Bored by Politics
Oct23 Today's Polls: AR CA CT IL MO NY PA WA WV MA-04 MD-01 MI-03 MI-07 MI-09 MI-15 ND-AL PA-06 SD-AL WA-08
Oct22 Bill Clinton Campaigning As If He Were President
Oct22 The Unseen Battle: State Legislatures
Oct22 DCCC Borrows 7 Million
Oct22 Early Voting in Nevada
Oct22 Today's Polls: AR CT NY PA MA-04 MD-01 MI-07 MI-09 ND-AL PA-06
Oct21 Today's Polls: AK AR CA FL IL KY MD MO NY OH WV + 11 House polls
Oct21 New Icon Available
Oct21 Sestak and Toomey Debate in Pennsylvania
Oct21 Democrats Fighting for Safe Districts
Oct21 Bill Schneider: Obama too Cerebral
Oct21 Republicans Lead in New House Polls
Oct21 Today's Polls: AK AR CA FL IL KY MD MO NY OH WV AZ-05 IL-14 IL-17 MS-01 NH-01 NY-19 NY-24 OR-05 PA-08 PA-10 WI-08
Oct20 Early Voting Starting in 32 States