Senate Races 2010

While the 2010 election is a long way off, one fact stands out right now: the Democrats will be defending 18 seats and the Republicans will also be defending 18 seats. However, more Republicans are retiring than Democrats, as listed on the Senate retirements page. In races where there is only one serious competitor for his or her party's nomination, that person is shown below, even though the nominee is not certain until the primary is finished.

The most competitive races are shown first, in alphabetical order by state. Then come the safe Democratic seats and then the safe Republican seats.

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Competitive Senate Races in Alphabetical Order by State

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Blanche Lincoln (D)	(R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). Nevertheless, her popularity is way down and she is facing a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). On the Republican side, there are multiple candidates, including Rep. John Boozman, who is probably the strongest candidate but he has to get through a primary first.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Michael Bennet (D)	Jane Norton (R)	Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010. Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning. He will also have to fend off a primary challenge from former Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff (D). Fortunately for him, President Obama has already endorsed him in the primary. The most likely Republican candidate is former lieutenant governor Jane Norton. However, the recent announcement of Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) that he is retiring may prompt Romanoff to switch to the governor's race--unless Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper enters it.

Delaware

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Mike Castle (R)	When Joe Biden became Vice President, Gov. Ruth Minner appointed a placeholder, Ted Kaufman, to the seat. Kaufman is not running in 2010, so the state's lone representative, Mike Castle (R) has decided to go for a promotion, even though he is 70. Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, the state's Attorney General has decided not to run, so Chris Coons, executive of the state's largest county has jumped in the race. Castle is better known, but Delaware is a very blue state. Could be close.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	When Mel Martinez retired from the Senate earlier this year, Gov. Crist appointed a placeholder, George LeMieux, to serve out Martinez' term and then retire in 2010. After some hesitation, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) decided to run for the job. Initially he was the favorite. However, there is going to be a nasty primary between former state House majority leader Marco Rubio (R) and Crist. Conservatives will back Rubio, forcing Crist to tack to the right during the primary, which is Aug. 24. This means even if Crist wins, he has little time to tack back to the center. But recently polling has shown that Crist might actually lose the primary to Rubio. For Democrats, the race is wide open with the only announced candidate so far being Rep Kendrick Meek, who is not well known in the state. If it ends up Crist vs. Meek, Crist will win handily.

Illinois

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Alexi Giannoulias (D)	Mark Kirk (R)	After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement. Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic primary and will face Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the general election. Although Illinois is a blue state, Giannoulias' family owns a small bank that is in financial trouble. While the bank isn't under investigation for anything, just being associated with a poorly performing bank is not a good place to be right now. The race is expected to be close.

Indiana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	(R)	Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. If Sen. Evan Bayh had decided to run again, he would have won easily, but he has had enough of how Washington works and decided to retire from politics. His departure completely completely shakes up the race and makes it a tossup.

Kentucky

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. While he was a great pitcher, he was hardly a great senator. His age and lack of fundraising drove him from the 2010 race, so the Republican establishment picked a succesor, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Only their plan was messed up by the son of Rep. Ron Paul, Rand Paul, who entered the race, forcing a nasty primary. The Democrats also have two contenders, Lt.Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, and Attorney General Jack Conway. Thus we have two primaries with four possible outcomes of who the candidates will be.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
David Vitter (R)	Charlie Melancon (D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a frequest flyer at the establishment of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. Perhaps once. Perhaps twice. Perhaps 1000 times. Vitter might even face a primary challenger from porn star Stormy Daniels. Even though she has no political background, she is guaranteed lots of press coverage and photos. So far the only announced Democrat is Rep. Charlie Melancon.

Missouri

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Roy Blunt (R)	Robin Carnahan (D)	Four-term senator Kit Bond (R) has decided to call it quits. He will be 77 at the end of another term and he's not interested, so we have an open seat in a key swing state. The other Missouri senator is a Democrat, Claire McCaskill. Robin Carnahan (D), the current Missouri Secretary of State and a member of a Missouri dynasty is running and is the favorite. Father Mel was governor. Mother Jean was senator. Brother Russ is a congressman. Needless to say, the Carnahan name is pretty well known in Missouri. A serious primary challenge seems unlikely Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the almost certain Republican nominee at this point. He, too, has dynastic tendencies. His son, Matt Blunt, was governor from 2005 to 2009.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Harry Reid (D)	(R)	The gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, and Harry Reid is high on the Republican's target list. Reid's popularity in the state is low, so the Republicans will certainly do their best to unseat him. Their biggest problem is lack of a candidate. There will be a primary between a former state party chairwoman and son of a famous college basketball coach, and some others, but no popular elected politician. So the race is more Reid's to lose than the Republican's to win. One factor that may help Reid is that the Tea Party candidate, Job Ashjian, has qualified for the ballot,

New Hampshire

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kelly Ayotte (R)	Paul Hodes (D)	Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was going to become Secretary of Commerce and then he changed his mind. He abstained on the stimulus bill (which was de facto the same as voting for cloture) but took a lot of heat for it from NH Republicans. Then he withdrew and said he wouldn't run in 2010 either, creating an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) has already said he is running and is unlikely to be challenged by any other Democrat. Republicans lucked out when Kelly Ayotte, the state's Attorney General said she would run. However, she was appointed to the AG job and this is her first actual run for public office. The GOP establishment quickly rallied around her. However, she is being challenged from the right by Ovide Lamontagne, which could lead to a nasty ideological primary.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Burr (R)	(D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan (D) at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. While the Democrats' strongest candidate, Attorney General Roy Cooper, decided against a run, their #2 choice, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, is contemplating one.

Ohio

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rob Portman (R)	(D)	Sen. George Voinovich is retiring after two terms in the Senate, creating an open seat in a swing state. This will one of the most bitterly fought races in 2010. Former congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is the likely nominee for the Republicans. He was also director of the budget during the Bush administration, which will be a handicap as the Democrats will accuse him of causing the recession. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is running as is Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, a terrible campaigner, is nevertheless the choice of the establishment. Brunner is an insurgent, but polls show them fairly close.

Safe Democrats in Alphabetical Order by State

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Boxer (D)	Carly Fiorina (R)	Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). If Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) had challenged her, she might have had to sweat a bit. But since he said he is retiring from public office in 2010, she is a shoo-in for reelection. Her Republican opponent is most likely Carly Fiorina, who was heralded when she became the first woman to run a big computer company (Hewlett Packard) and then heralded again when she was the first CEO of either gender to be fired from a big computer company for incompetence. However, she first has to get past tea partier Chuck DeVore and millionaire and frequent candidate Tom Campbell in a primary. If they split the right-wing vote, she will probably make it past them.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Blumenthal (D)	(R)	With Chris Dodd's retirement at the end of this year, the way has been opened for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) to run for the seat. He is the odds-on favorite. Former representative Rob Simmons (R) is going to run for the GOP nomination. However, Simmons will have a competitive primary against WWE CEO Linda McMahon, and brokerage owner and author Peter Schiff.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Daniel Inouye (D)	(R)	Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 but has said he plans to run for a ninth term. He will probably win easily unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) decides to run, in which case it could be a contest. Still, Republicans are scarce on the ground in Hawaii and in an Inouye-Lingle matchup, Inouye would be the favorite. Even if Inouye retires, the Democrats are likely to hold the seat as their bench is deep here.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Mikulski (D)	(R)	Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to, and since she likes her job, the Republicans can't count on a retirement, either.

New York-A

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Schumer (D)	(R)	The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer, but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some statewide exposure to run for some other office later. Remember, this is the guy who ran the DSCC for two cycles and knocked off 14 sitting Republicans. He did so primarily due to his ability to raise mountains of money for other people. If he could do that for a mayor in far-off Alaska, imagine what he can do for himself. Schumer is invincible.

New York-B

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	(R)	Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton when she became Secretary of State. She has only one term of experience in the House, so she will be a target. However, in 2008 she got 68% of the vote in a somewhat (R+3) Republican district and she has a 100% rating from the NRA, so many Republicans clearly find her acceptable. She is also a prodigious fundraiser. By 2010 she will be well known in the state. Nevertheless, several representatives were mulling a primary challenge. Rep. Steve Israel pulled out when Rahm Emanuel told him that if he ran, the President would personally campaign against him. Representatives Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy also threatened her with primaries and both backed down under pressure. The Republicans were hoping for Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki but neither is interested in the race. Another factor is that her guardian angel is Chuck Schumer, the state's powerful senior senator, who will do what it takes to protect her.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ron Wyden (D)	(R)	Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated. He probably won't even be tested very hard.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	Pat Toomey (R)	Arlen Specter's switch back to the Democrats took everyone by surprise. He was elected to the Senate five times as a Republican in a blue state. As a Democrat, it will be even easier, especially if former representative Pat Toomey, who is very conservative, is the Republican nominee, as expected. Rather than risk losing his job, Specter switched parties. While Democrats on the left have been grumbling about Specter being a DINO (Democrat In Name Only), the party establishment supports his switch. However, he will first have to get past a primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a retired Vice-Admiral in the Navy.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Pat Leahy (D)	(R)	Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010. The only Republican who has even an outside chance of taking him down is Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), but Douglas is up for reelection in 2010. Like Jodi Rell in Connecticut, why would have give up an almost sure thing to be reelected as governor for a real longshot at a Senate seat?

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Patty Murray (D)	(R)	Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. While the Republicans will surely mount a serious challenge to her, she would be the clear favorite for a fourth term even if the Republicans had a deep bench here, which they don't.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Russ Feingold (D)	(R)	What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. He should cruise to an easy reelection. It is doubtful that the Republicans will even be able to recruit a serious candidate against him.

Safe Republicans in Alphabetical Order by State

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Shelby (R)	(D)	Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He is also sitting on a huge pile of cash ($13 million) and won praise in his state for opposing the Wall St. bailout. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again no matter which sacrificial lamb the Democrats come up with.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Lisa Murkowski (R)	(D)	Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. Her only threat in red Alaska is if Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) decides that she needs some Washington experience to add to her resume prior to her potential 2012 run for President. While Palin was attacked for lack of experience during her Vice Presidential run in 2008, she does have experience in beating Murkowskis in primaries, having beaten Lisa's father, Frank in the 2006 Republican primary. However, Palin has said she is not running for the Senate. If she sticks with that, Murkowski is safe.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John McCain (R)	(D)	A bit out of the blue, John McCain now has to pay more attention to what was until now an easy reelection campaign. He is going to be challenged in a primary by former congressman J.D. Hayworth and attacked for proposing to make illegals citizens. If he tries to out-Tancredo Simcox, he will antagonize the state's large Latino population, which will hurt him in the general election. If he goes back to supporting the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill (which he cowrote), he will infuriate the right wing of his own party. Still, with former governor Janet Napolitano (D) now safely relocated to Washington, the Democrats don't have an A-list candidate to run against McCain.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Johnny Isakson (R)	(D)	Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010. The Democrats are unlikely to even come up with a first-tier challenger.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Crapo (R)	(D)	Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. He will cruise to reelection in 2010--if he runs. He was treated for prostate cancer in 2000 and again in 2005 and might decide to retire, but even if he does retire, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain the seat.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Grassley (R)	(D)	Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable and recently negotiated a good committee assignment for the 112th Congress, so he has no intention of retiring.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(R)	(D)	Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius had run, she might have won, but since she opted for Secretary of Health and Human Services, the winner of the Republican primary will be elected senator. Two House Republicans, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, will battle it out for the Republican nomination.

North Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
(D)	John Hoeven (R)	Byron Dorgan's unexpected decision to retire in 2011 has opened up this race completely. Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) jumped in immediately after Dorgan's announcement. The state's sole representative, Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), who has a safe seat in the House decided not to run for it, so the Democrats have no one. Thye might try to convince former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp to run, but it is almost a lost cause against the popular Hoeven.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tom Coburn (R)	(D)	Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He's safe unless Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) decides to challenge him, in which case he might have to work hard to keep his job. However, Henry has said he won't run. But people have been known to change their minds. Without Henry as their nominee, the Democrats have no chance at all here. If Coburn retires, all bets are off.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jim DeMint (R)	(D)	Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe. The Democrats don't have any plausible candidates at all. He might even end up running unopposed.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John Thune (R)	(D)	John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats are really going to gun for him this time to get revenge. One potential candidate is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the state's sole representative. She has a proven track record of winning statewide by large margins and would be a serious challenger if she decides to go for a promotion to the Senate. But she may decide she would rather be governor, like her grandfather, or wait until Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retires. She's only 38, just got married, and is expecting her first child. Chances are she will decline to run in 2010 knowing she has plenty of time later on.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Robert Bennett (R)	(D)	Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He won by 40 points last time. He'll be a U.S. senator until the cows come home.