May 13 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 59   GOP 40   Ties 1
House Dem 257   GOP 178  

Map of the 2010 Senate Races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem
weak Dem Weak Dem
barely Dem Barely Dem
tied Exactly tied
barely GOP Barely GOP
weak GOP Weak GOP
strong GOP Strong GOP
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): PA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Utah Attorney General Mistakenly Posts Candidacy on Twitter Palin Writing a Book
Bush in 2012? Specter's Words of Wisdom
Rubio Welcomes Crist to the Race McAuliffe Gets Big Endorsement in Virginia

News from the Votemaster

Crist Will Run for the Senate     Permalink

Florida's popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, announced yesterday that he is not going to run for reelection as governor but will run for the open Senate seat Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) is vacating. NRSC chairman John Cornyn is ecstatic and endorsed him instantly as this this move increases the chance the Republicans can hold the seat. But it is not a done deal yet. Former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio (R), a telegenic young Cuban-American, is also running for the Republican nomination. Rubio is very conservative and will attack Crist from the right. In fact, he already launched an ad attacking Crist for appearing with President Obama and willingly accepting stimulus funds. Florida has a closed primary, so only registed Republicans can vote in it and many of them consider Crist to be a moderate, which is a dirty word to them. A bitter ideological primary is now a certainty and it is Aug. 24, 2010, giving the winner little time to heal wounds and rebuild his warchest. Also certain is that conservative Republicans from other states will be helping Rubio and pouring money into his campaign. On the other hand, the Democrats don't have a strong candidate yet, and without one, even a wounded Crist will be the favorite to win the general election.

Interestingly, Cornyn has refused to endorse Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania senatorial primary even though Cornyn and Toomey agree on everything and Cornyn and Crist have numerous differences, for example on the environment and on some gay rights such as civil unions. The reason, of course, is that Cornyn thinks Crist can win and doesn't think Toomey can win, so why back a loser?

Crist's move completely shakes up Florida politics. With Crist not running for reelection, there will be a battle royal for the governorship. The state's Chief Financial Officer (treasurer), Alex Sink, is probably going to run on the Democratic side, opening up her position. Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) is probably going to run for his party's nomination. Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson (R) may run as well, and possibly Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R) may also try to grab the brass ring. That would mean that all four state offices will be vacant, greatly increasing the chances the Democrats can can go from one office (Sink) to two or three.

McAuliffe Gets Big Union Endorsement     Permalink

Terry McAuliffe (D), Mr. Moneybags to Bill and Hillary Clinton, is running for governor of Virginia and got a key endorsement yesterday, from the Service Employees International Union. McAuliffe has never held public office before, but he has been a phenomenal fundraiser for Democrats in the past and now for himself. He is clearly the 800-pound gorilla in the Democratic primary against state legislators Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran. The primary is in about a month, June 9th, and the general election is this Fall.

Gillibrand Supports Medicare for All     Permalink

Appointed senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is losing no time moving to the left for her possible primary against one or more Democratic House members. When she represented NY-20, a conservative upstate district, she supported gun owners' rights, which terminally irritated many downstaters. Three Democratic representatives, Steve Israel, Carolyn Maloney, and Carolyn McCarthy, have all threatened to primary her from the left. So what does Gillibrand do? She comes out in favor of a public option in the health care reform plan, something that will endear her to the left wing of the NY Democratic Party. And she does it on Daily Kos to boot. (English translation: Hello Netroots. I am well aware you don't trust the market on this one. I hear you.) Whether the ploy will keep one or more of the House members out of the race remains to be seen, but no one should underestimate this young woman's very considerable political skills.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster