Gubernatorial Races 2010

While many people are focused on the midterm congressional elections already, there are other elections in 2010 that may be even more important: governors races in 36 states in 2010, as well as two more in 2009. These 38 races are especially important this cycle because the House will be reapportioned after the 2010 census, which means that the gerrymanders will crawl out from under their logs and bask in the sun, as they always do once in a decade. In nearly all states, congressional districts are set by law, which means the state legislature gets to draw the district boundaries and then the governor gets to sign or veto the law. If the legislature and governor are from the same party, they can do pretty much whatever they want to and can be expected to draw the boundaries to benefit their party. Of course, if a state has only one representative, like Alaska, there is not much they can do. But in a state like Florida, with 25 representatives now and more expected after 2010, there is enormous potential for mischief.

On the other hand, if the governor's mansion and state legislature are controlled by different parties, all bets are off. If the legislature comes up with a one-side plan, the governor will veto it. This pretty much forces the legislature to limit its dreams. Typically, the result is a compromise that protects all the incumbents and maintains the status quo, unless the state gains or loses one or more representatives, in which case there is much horse trading about the new boundaries, but the result can't favor the majority party too much or the governor won't bite. With so many governorships up for grabs this cycle, a dozen or more House seats hang in the balance.

All off-site references open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it.

Competitive Gubernatorial Races in Alphabetical Order by State

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Jan Brewer (R)	Terry Goddard (D)	Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) got her job when term-limited Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) took a job in the cabinet. Since she wasn't elected, she may be vulnerable to a primary challenge, possibly from Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker or Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio. The most likely Democratic candidate is Attorney General Terry Goddard. Since the most recent person to be elected governor was a Democrat in an otherwise somewhat Republican state, this race has to be considered a tossup at this point.

California

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Jerry Brown (D)	Open seat. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) is term limited so the biggest prize of all in terms of possibilities to gerrymander House districts is up for grabs. It looks like the Democrats are going to run former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown. Brown's father, Pat Brown, was also a former governor. On the Republican side, the main candidates seem to be Meg Whitman, a former CEO of eBay and the state insurance commissioner, Steve Poizner. Both are billionaires. Also running is former congressman Tom Campbell (R), but he will have a tough time outspending the billionaires. Given the Democratic lean of the state, any of these would be swimming upstream against any Democrat, but especially against Brown, who is very well known in the state.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bill Ritter (D)	Scott McInnis (R)	Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) will be going for his second term in this increasingly blue state. His choice of Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) to replace Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) was bizarre at best, especially considering there were plenty of Democratic members of the House eager for the job. So far, former House member Scott McInnis seems like the most likely Republican in the race.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	With Gov. Jody Rell's announced retirement, this has become a wide open race with the Democrats having a good chance to pick up the governor's mansion. Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz is probably going to run and 2006 senatorial primary winner Ned Lamont might run too. The Republican side is completely open. Former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley (R) has already announced as has Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) but others are waiting in the wings.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bill McCollum (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Open seat. With Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the seat of retired senator Mel Martinez, the governor's race was suddenly thrown wide open. Surprisingly, it settled down on both sides very fast, with Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Chief Financial Office Alex Sink (D) becoming the overwhelming favorites to get their party's respective nominations. Both are well know statewide. It could be a close race.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chet Culver (D)	Terry Brandstad (R)	Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state. However, his popularity is dropping and he could be vulnerable. The most likely Republican is former four-term governor Terry Branstad. Since Branstad is a proven vote getter, albeit a decade ago, he could be a tough competitor.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Quinn (D)	(R)	Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) became governor when his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich, was impeached and convicted. So far, Quinn doesn't appear touched by the state's boundless corruption, but when you weren't elected to your current office, you are always vulnerable. He will probably face a primary with Comptroller Dan Hynes. The Republicans don't have a stellar candidate here, with half a dozen poorly known candidates slugging it out for the nomination. Former state Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna might have a slight edge over the pack.

Maine

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) is term limited, giving the Republicans a shot in this once strongly Republican state. However, they don't have a lot of potential candidates. While both senators are Republicans, it is doubtful that either one wants the job. Both representatives are Democrats. Most likely, a state legislator or rich businessman will get the nomination. It may not be worth that much, however, since the the state is quite blue and the only way senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe stay in the saddle is by bucking their own party much of the time. A possible Democratic candidate is Attorney General Steve Rowe, who is definitely interested, but 20 other Democrats have filed to run as well. One wild card is the possibility of an independent governor; two of the past five governors have been independents.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Martin O'Malley (D)	(R)	Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) will be running for a second term in this very blue state. Early in his term he raised taxes, which lowered his approval ratings somewhat. If former one-term governor Bob Erlich (R) wants to get his old job back, he might have a chance. Without Erlich, the likely GOP nominee will probably be Larry Hogan, son of a former Republican congressman and he will lose badly.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Term-limited governor Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) is leaving, which is probably a good thing for the Democrats as she was not all that popular. Also, the economy of her state is a complete disaster, although it is not really her fault that General Motors has had little interest in the past 30 years in producing cars that people actually want to buy. Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) is next in line and may try to grab the brass ring, however, Flint mayor Don Williamson (D) and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) may challenge him in a primary. The Republicans have plenty of possibles here, including Attorney General Mike Cox (R), Secretary of State Terri Land (R), and quite a few members of Congress. Michigan definitely offers the Republicans a good shot at a pickup.

Minnesota

Challender	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Some people are talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible presidential nominee in 2012. He hasn't discouraged that kind of talk, and he decided not to run for a third term in 2010 to concentrate on his presidential run. The mayor of Minneapolis, R.T. Rybak (DFL) is running but there are likely to be more candidates shortly. The Republican field is fluid due to Pawlenty's unexpected withdrawal from the race. Former senator Norm Coleman (R) might hop in.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Gibbons (R)	(D)	Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) has been up to his ears in scandals since day 1, including a messy divorce in which the state's first lady refused to move out of the governor's mansion. Then there were shady land deals, a bribery investigation, illegal campaign donations, and more. He will certainly be challenged in a primary, possibly by Attorney General Brian Sandoval. The highest-profile Democrat running is Sen. Harry Reid's son, Rory, but mayor of Sin City, Oscar Goodman, might challenge him. Or Goodman might run as an independent. A lot depends on whether this is a two-way race (Democrat favored) or a three-way race (Republican favored).

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
David Paterson (D)	(R)	Politics is a blood sport in New York. This time will be no exception. Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) succeeded to the governor's mansion when Eliot Spitzer resigned after being ensnared in a prostitution sting. Paterson, the state's first black governor as well as the nation's first blind governor, has done a singularly poor job so far, in no small part due to the clumsy way he handled appointing Hillary Clinton's successor. If Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D), son of former governor Mario Cuomo (D), challenges Paterson in a primary, the polls show Cuomo winning in a landslide. If Cuomo is the nominee, no serious Republican will enter the race and Cuomo will be elected governor. If, however, Paterson somehow wins the primary, or Cuomo decides not to run, then former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani will probably enter the race and at least make it interesting. Giuliani probably won't risk facing the popular Cuomo since even he can get just so much mileage from saying "9/11" once a minute for 10 months. Currently the only Republican announced is former representative Rick Lazio.

Rhode Island

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Term-limited Gov. Don Carcieri (R-RI) has to call it quits in 2010 and whichever Democrat wins the primary will be the heavy favorite in the general election. The Democratic bench is deep here, with Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Treasurer Frank Caprio the most likely candidates to top a primary. Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts all mulling over their chances. The Republicans have nobody of note available and will probably have to settle for a former state legislator or a rich businessman as the sacrificial lamb in this extremely blue state. The only wildcard would be the possible entry of former senator Lincoln Chafee (R) as an independent. He might just do it, too.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Wisconsin law allows Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) to run for a third term but he has decided not to. Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D) is running to succeed him since the lieutenant governor, Barbara Lawton is not interested in the job. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is mulling a bid.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Vermont was one of the Republicans' few bright spots in New England. If four-term governor Jim Douglas (R-VT) had run for a fifth two-year term, he'd probably win, but he is not running, so the Democrats have the edge now. Possible Dems are former lieutenant governor Doug Racine, Secretary of State Deborah Marowitz, and Treasurer Jeb Spaulding. One Republican candidate so far is Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. There might be more later though.

Likely Democratic States in Alphabetical Order

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Mike Beebe (D)	(R)	Gov. Mike Beebe (D-AR) is highly popular and is unlikely to attract any serious primary or general election challengers.

Hawaii

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. While it is hard for Republicans to win anything in Hawaii, term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) managed to pull it off twice. But she will be a tough act for another Republican to follow in this very blue state. Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R-HI) will try, but the odds favor one of the Democrats, which include Rep. Neil Abercrombie, and possibly Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann and various state legislators. But Abercrombie is the favorite in both the primary and the general election.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Deval Patrick (D)	(R)	Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) is the nation's second elected black governor. Despite a mediocre performance and low approval ratings if he decides to run for reelection--and there is no sign he won't--he will win easily because there are simply no credible Republicans in Massachusetts. In theory, former governor Mitt Romney (R) could run again, but he has other fish to fry and he moved so far to the right during the Republican primaries of 2008 that he would probably lose anyway. And Patrick can count on his good friend Barack Obama to help him in any way he can. Patrick's only worry is a primary challenge from a fellow Democrat, possibly state Treasurer Timothy Cahill.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Lynch (D)	(R)	If Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) wants a fourth 2-year term, there is nothing the Republicans can do do stop him. He won his last two elections in landslides and the state is bluer than ever. Their only hope is that he retires as he has already said he is not running for the state's open Senate seat. The Republican bench in New Hampshire is extremely thin. There is a small chance that former senator John Sununu will run, but most likely he won't unless Lynch retires.

New Mexico

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) is term limited. Lt. Gov Diane Denish (D-NM) is sure to run for the Democratic nomination, but actor Val Kilmer may challenge her. Enough famous and rich celebrities have been elected to public office that she can't just dismiss him. What about the Republicans? Well, Obama carried the state in a landslide, the Democrats control both Senate seats, all three House seats, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the state legislature (by nearly 2 to 1 margins). The Republicans control nothing, so the prospects aren't very good for them here. Probably the only Republican with any chance at all is former representative Heather Wilson (R), who was defeated in the Republican senatorial primary last year but she has said she won't run. A local district attorney, Susana Martinez is the only announced candidate so far.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ted Strickland (D)	(R)	Ted Strickland crushed his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 and has remained relatively popular since then. But with the Ohio economy in the toilet people need to blame someone and the governor is always on everyone's short list. Still, he has no serious Democratic opposition and probably not much serious Republican opposition either. Former representative John Kasich (R) is running and Secretary of State Kevin Coughlin (R) might, too. No matter who the Republican nominee is, Strickland starts out in the lead.

Oregon

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D-OR) won't be on the ballot in 2010, but the Democrats have no shortage of candidates, including former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, Rep. Peter DeFazio, and state Senate President Peter Courtney. But former governor John Kitzhaber's presence in the race may scare the others away. The Republicans have few feasible candidates here. Obama won the state in a landslide and an incumbent Republican senator was sent packing, so even without knowing the candidates, it is clear the Democrat has the edge.

Pennsylvania

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. With two-term governor Ed Rendell (D-PA), retiring in 2010, the governor's mansion in a key swing state will be up for grabs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) is running and so is Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett (R). The Democratic field is still open but the Democrats now have a huge voter registration margin as a result of the Clinton-Obama primary, a battle that was dissed by many Democrats at the time, but now is the gift that keeps on giving.

Likely Republican States in Alphabetical Order

Alabama

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL) is term limited but Alabama is fairly blue at the state level, with the Democrats controlling both houses of the state legislature. However, at the federal level, the Republicans dominate, so the gubernational race is likely to be very competitive. Rep. Artur Davis (D) and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) are running and there may be others. Davis is black, which will definitely help given the expected large black turnout in Democratic primaries. On the Republican side, there are numerous potential candidates among the statewide officers, including the Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Sean Parnell (R)	(D)	Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) is almost assuredly eyeing a presidential run in 2012. For her, the question is she better off (1) being governor, (2) being senator, or (3) none of the above. If she decides that being governor is best, all she has to do it run. She'll win easily. The disadvantage of running as governor is that she is far from Iowa and even farther from New Hampshire. Makes it hard to campaign. If she wanted to be senator, she would have to beat Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in what would be a nasty primary, but she has already ruled that out.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. With Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) term limited, anything could happen here. Republican hopefuls include Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Karen Handel, and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. The only Democrat holding statewide office who is considering a race is Attorney General Thurbert Baker. The state is fairly red, however, so it is likely that the Republicans can hold the fort.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Butch Otter (R)	(D)	Gov. Butch Otter (R-ID) will run for re-election and win. There is nothing the Democrats can do to prevent it. End of story.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Parkinson (D)	Sam Brownback (R)	Open seat. Term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) accepted a job in the Cabinet rather than run for the open Kansas Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who is running for governor. The new governor is Mark Parkinson, currently a Democrat, but formerly a Republican. Nominally, he is up for election in 2010, but he may decide to retire, especially if he decides he has no chance at all against the popular Brownback. No matter who the Democrat is, Brownback is extremely likely to win this one.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Heineman (R)	(D)	Then Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R-NE) inherited his job when Gov. Mike Johanns became Secretary of Agriculture but Heineman ran on his own in 2006 and won convincingly. He is expected to run in 2010 and win convincingly again. The Democrats are likely to nominate a state legislator such as Steve Lathrop or Tom White, but neither one has much of a chance.

Oklahoma

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) is term limited so this will be an open seat in the reddest state in the country (McCain got 66% of the vote here, vs. a 65% in Wyoming and a mere 63% in Utah). In fact, Oklahoma is the only state in which McCain carried every county. Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D-OK) is running as is Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D), but the Republicans have a flotilla of prospects, including Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), former representative J.C. Watts (R), and Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett (R). Nevertheless, the situation is not hopeless for the Democrats as they currently control every single statewide office.

South Carolina

		Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) is term limited and more interested in running for President than being governor anyway. In political terms, South Carolina is where the South starts now that Virginia is rapidly trending blue and North Carolina has become a swing state (Obama carried both). As a consequence, the Republican nominee is practically a shoo in, so a vigorously contested primary is likely. The likely contenders are Attorney General, Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov., Andre Bauer, and Rep. Greshman Barret, but others are contemplating jumping in. The Democratic bench here is exceedingly weak, so the nominee is likely to be either a former official or a state senator not up for reelection in 2010. While not completly hopeless (a Democrat, Jim Hodges, was governor 1999-2003), this is one of the Democrats' least likely pickups.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Were he not term limited, the popular governor, Mike Rounds, could easily win a third term, then a fourth one, and then a fifth one. Despite the Republican tilt of the state in presidential elections, one of the senators (Tim Johnson) and the only representative (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) are Democrats. In fact, Herseth Sandlin may be interested in becoming governor, a job her grandfather once held. If she runs, she'll probably win, too. If she doesn't run, there are half a dozen Republicans interested in the job and they will slug it out and whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Tennessee is a bit of an anomaly: while dependably Republican in both federal and state elections, the departing two-term gvernor is Democrat Phil Bredesen. If former U.S. senator Bill Frist (R) had decided to run, he would probably have won, but he has decided not to. Likely Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, and Rep. Zach Wamp. Since the outgoing governor is one of them, the Democrats certainly aren't going to abandon this race., but currently they have no high-profile contenders.

Texas

?	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), soon to be the longest serving governor in Texas history, is going to be a humdinger. Only he won't be battling a Democrat; he'll be battling a fellow Republican, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in a bitter primary. Senate Republicans pleaded with her not to run as she would probably win and leave behind an open Senate seat. The Hutchison-Perry primary will be ideological and bloody.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gary herbert (R)	(D)	When Barack Obama appointed former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (R) as ambassador to China, he got rid of a potential 2012 opponent but created a special gubernatorial election in Utah in 2010. The man who became governor in his place, Gary Herbert, is running and is the favorite. The Democrats are trying to entice the mayor of Salt Lake County, Peter Corroon (D) to run, but even if he did, he would be a distant long shot.

Wyoming

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Wyoming is the Republican's #1 pickup opportunity as Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) is term limited and the Democrats have nobody to replace him. Lots of Republicans are champing at the bit and whoever wins the Republican primary will be elected governor. Former Wyoming House majority leader Ron Micheli (R) is expected to announce soon.