Health Care Vote: Four Republican Senators Say "I'm with Them"

As expected, the vote on competing health care plans took place in the Senate yesterday. And, as expected, neither the Republican plan ("make it easier for people to buy junk insurance") or the Democratic plan ("extend the Obamacare subsidies") came within a country mile of the 60 votes needed for the legislation to make it through the chamber.

So, is this a loss for the Democrats? There is certainly a narrative along those lines out there. It goes something like this: "The Democrats had the upper hand during the shutdown, then caved in exchange for what was likely to just be a meaningless show vote. Now we know it WAS a meaningless show vote, so the party got NOTHING out of the shutdown. What a waste!"

That's not a crazypants way to look at things. But surely readers can anticipate that is not our take. As we wrote a couple of times the week the shutdown ended, there was zero chance the Democrats were going to actually get the subsidies extended. The Republican senators made it clear that was a non-starter for them. Should that hurdle have been overcome, then it was on to the House. The votes MIGHT have been there in the House, but maybe not, and on top of that, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would have tried to avoid bringing the legislation to the floor. Should both chambers have passed the bill, then it would have run into the brick wall (well, maybe terra cotta, since it's flimsier and orange-r) that is Donald Trump. He was never, ever, ever going to sign off on a bill helping extend the signature program of Barack Obama, whom he perceives as one of his main enemies.

The Democrats did get SOME stuff of substance back then, like the SNAP extension. And they got their vote. And now that the vote has been held, they've got something to wield during this election cycle. They can say "The only idea the Republicans have is useless junk insurance. We Democrats are the ones who are trying to actually bring costs down and to get people covered." That's already pretty good, and on top of that, four GOP senators crossed the aisle to vote with the Democrats yesterday: Susan Collins (ME), Josh Hawley (MO) and Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan (both AK). So, the blue team can also say, "See? Even the Republicans know that our approach is the way forward, even if many of them are too afraid of Donald Trump to admit it."

And now, with attempts at a "fix" having failed, a lot of Americans are going to get badly bitten by much higher insurance premiums. Obviously, the people who were getting Obamacare subsidies will be hit hard. And when many of those people, who skew younger and healthier, drop off the rolls, then non-Obamacare policies will go up in cost, either because insurers' costs will go up, or because insurers can get away with more in a less-price-competitive market.

What's going to happen, to use the metaphor we've deployed a number of times at this point, is that a lot of Americans are about to touch the stove. In the short term, that really, really stinks. It's a damn shame that the voters—or, better yet, their elected representatives—can't anticipate and respond to problems BEFORE they become painful. But history shows that is just not how it works in the U.S. political system. A president had to be assassinated by a disappointed office seeker before civil service reform could be enacted. People had to see their elders starving and dying before old-age insurance could be adopted. People had to see cops attacking Black people with dogs, and "uppity" activists hanging from trees, before civil rights legislation could be implemented.

So, the potential silver lining here, as we've noted before, is that maybe this will be the impetus for real change in the American health care system. Because, for far too many people, what the country has right now just is not working. (Z)

Too Much Winning?: Watch Truth Social, Because Trump's Gotta Be Livid Right Now

For readers who care about, well, people, the above item is a bit of a downer. It's possible that this one will lift folks' spirits, because Donald Trump and his administration suffered a trio of unusually high-profile setbacks yesterday.

We're going to organize this by geography, working north to south, since we can't think of a better option. We're going to assign the first setback to northeast Pennsylvania, because that is where Kilmar Abrego Garcia was being held, at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center. Yesterday, Judge Paula Xinis, who sits as part of the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland, ruled that the White House has failed to produce any of the necessary documents or evidence to justify the continued incarceration of Abrego Garcia, and so she ordered him released, immediately.

The fundamental problem here, for those who are fuzzy on the details, is that the charges against Abrego Garcia were trumped up (literally and metaphorically), apparently because he was detained by accident in the first place. There is little chance of an actual conviction from an American court, so the administration really wanted to send Abrego Garcia abroad, ideally to the most hellish hellhole they could find. But no nation, even the hellholes, would take him. So, facing the business end of Xinis' gavel, the administration has apparently already released Abrego Garcia. They say they will appeal, and it's also possible they'll find yet another excuse to pick him up and detain him. But maybe, just maybe, the administration will finally accept that this one is a loser, and is not worth any more black eyes, and will leave him and his family in peace. That would not only be the right thing to do, it would be the smart thing, even if Stephen Miller thinks otherwise.

Next up, since it's definitely south of northern Pennsylvania, is Indianapolis, IN. There, the Indiana state Senate held its long-awaited vote on redistricting. And the senators poked Trump in the eye, bigly. When we wrote our sorta preview of the vote, we implied that there might just be enough Democrats and anti-gerrymandering Republicans to eke out a victory. We were not correct about that. In fact, the final vote was 31-18 against. That 31 is all of the Democrats in the chamber, plus 21 Republican members. Put another way, even a majority of Republican state senators voted against the bill. This despite a relentless pressure campaign from the Trump administration.

Now that Trump has definitively lost, he and his allies are threatening revenge against the 21 apostates. We wonder if he, and the angry supporters (e.g., Turning Point USA) who are promising to back his campaign of recrimination, will actually follow through in 6 months (Indiana's primaries are on May 5). Between now and then, Trump will end up in a hundred more catfights, and will train his sights on dozens and dozens of additional enemies. Might the Hoosiers eventually drop off the list? It's possible.

If Trump & Co. do attempt to take revenge, then that will be a monumentally stupid, and an incredibly selfish and childish, decision. But inasmuch as Trump regularly does things that are stupid, selfish and childish, that is certainly possible. To start, as we have already pointed out, it's going to be all hands (and all dollars) on deck time for the GOP in 2026, and it is incredibly foolish to waste resources on internecine squabbles. To paraphrase LBJ, you want everyone inside the tent pissing out, not inside the tent pissing on each other.

On top of that, those 21 Republicans are also politicians, and they have a better sense of dynamics of their home district than do Donald Trump, or Mike Johnson, or Trump's pollster Tony Fabrizio. It is improbable that all 21 of them decided to fall on their swords, and to sacrifice their careers, all at the same time. Surely they must have good reason to believe that voting against the bill is more politically viable than voting for it. So, if Trump tries to take them all down, he risks yet another black eye if a whole bunch of them (or all of them) survive.

And speaking of the politics of the situation, we have not really been able to understand why Hoosier Republican voters so dislike this gerrymandering push, other than the general anti-gerrymandering arguments about fairness and representation. We read a few pieces on the subject, and they weren't particularly enlightening. We did get an e-mail from reader R.K. in Indianapolis on the subject, however:

I was raised in Indiana and have lived here for most of my life and have been following the redistricting news with particular interest since it turned to Indiana. While I don't believe your analysis of some of the reasons why Indiana was the first to refuse the redistricting call of Trump was wrong, I believe there is an element you're missing that was highlighted by State Senator Spencer Deery (R) where he said "As long as I have breath, I will use my voice to resist a federal government that attempts to bully, direct, and control this state or any state."

Quite simply, Indiana has a pretty significant Little Brother Syndrome streak throughout the state and wants to be seen as Very Important and worth taking seriously. This is why we have put so much effort into sports hosting (Amateur Sports Capital of the World!) and why Barack Obama won here in 2008 (the Democratic primaries were decided in Indiana that year, so they had to actually show up and talk to us!). This Little Brother Syndrome also infects the local politicians to the breaking point you just saw here, where the more the federal government tried to strong-arm the local politicians, the more local politicians fought back on impulse to say "No, you don't get to take away our autonomy. We matter too!"

Throw in a couple weeks of national attention for Indiana and fawning articles about how brave those Republican senators were for standing up to Trump, and I highly doubt many of them have to worry about their jobs for quite a while.

Sounds very plausible to us. And if you're trying to decide whether you should trust our assessment of Indiana politics, or R.K. in Indianapolis' assessment, we suggest you really ought to go with R.K. in Indianapolis.

After the matter was decided, Johnson talked to reporters and said it really doesn't matter, and he's still bullish on the Republicans' prospects in Indiana. When we saw that, it immediately brought to mind a word that has a lot of the same letters as "bullish," and they are even in a similar order. Keep in mind that the whole point here was to break up a D+21 district. There is NO WAY a district like that flips, pretty much ever. Certainly not under the conditions likely to be in effect next year. When a politician peddles obvious spin, they have to make it seem like they believe it. There is no way Johnson believes this kind of tripe, which is why we are generally unimpressed with his skillz (and yes, we deliberately spelled that with a 'z').

And now, our final stop, in Alexandria, VA. For the second time in as many weeks, the administration tried to indict New York AG Letitia James for mortgage fraud. And for the second time in as many weeks, the administration failed to indict New York AG Letitia James for mortgage fraud, as a grand jury once again refused to buy what the government's attorneys were selling. We shall now state the obvious, namely that if Trump & Co. can't even get a grand jury indictment, there is no way they get a jury conviction.

We are not sure what the administration thinks it is achieving with this crusade against James. Is it exciting the base that Trump is taking on a Black woman? Maybe, but we doubt it, especially because he also keeps losing to that very same Black woman. We assume that the whole thing is just an outlet for Trump's rage, and it makes him feel better that he's making her jump through hoops and that he's forcing her to pay for legal representation (though we wonder if there's maybe some sort of GoFundMe that is helping defray those costs).

Whatever is going on with James, the fact is that Trump's shtick has always been "tough" and "powerful" and "winner." And every time he gets beaten, part of the facade crumbles away. With the New York AG, as with Abrego Garcia, as with the Indiana senators, just dropping the matter isn't merely the decent thing to do, it's the smart thing to do. But this is not an administration, or a president, known for doing the smart thing. (Z)

Governance, Trump-Style, Part I: Ho, Hum, Just Your Run of the Mill Tanker Capture

We remain unsure of what Donald Trump is trying to achieve with his personal war against Venezuela, and in particular against the maritime fleet of Venezuela. Is it that military actions against brown people make MAGA Nation feel, uh, tingly in the pants, as it were? Is this a distraction from Epstein Mobilier? Is he trying to create a state of war so as to unlock powers contained within legislation like the Alien Enemies Act of 1798? Does Trump regard Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro as a personal rival and enemy? Is Trump trying to gain access to Venezuelan mineral and oil deposits (akin to his interest in Greenland)? Could be any, all, or none of these things.

We do think we understand the latest incident, though. As most readers will know by now, the U.S. Navy boarded and seized a Venezuelan oil tanker that was sailing under the name Skipper. The U.S. is going to keep the boat and the oil within it, and will presumably sell to the highest bidder.

Of all the various actions undertaken against the Venezuelans by the Trump government, this one is far and away the most legal. There was actually a warrant, issued by a federal judge, allowing for the tanker to be seized. And the process of securing that warrant actually began under the Joe Biden administration, because Venezuela was violating the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran, and was using that particular ship (previously under the name Adisa) to continue to trade with the Iranians.

The current administration loves to stick it to both Iran and to Venezuela, so this was a two-fer on that account. Meanwhile, Donald Trump loves free money more than he loves life itself. And when it's free money that is flowing into the government's coffers, well, he generally sees that as a presidential slush fund. We have no idea how much money a tanker and about 1.1 million barrels of oil will go for, but we have no doubt that Trump will begin announcing plans to send considerably more than that amount to farmers, and then to voters in the form of checks, and then to personal savings accounts for 6-year-olds, and then to three other projects. He always spends money he doesn't actually have, and then spends it again, and again and again. After all, that's basically how he built his real estate portfolio.

All of this said, we have absolutely no doubt that the main reason the tanker was seized was to shift the narrative away from the "double tap" attack on the Venezuelan fishing boat. While the administration has steadfastly refused to release video of the second, probably illegal, strike on the fishermen, it could not get video of the tanker seizure out there fast enough. You can see American helicopters approaching the ship, and then you can see personnel (we're guessing Navy SEALs) rappelling down to the deck of the ship, and... well, it all reads like an episode of G.I. Joe, or maybe a Steven Seagal movie from the 1990s. And in case there is any doubt this was a PR move, the first White House official to make the footage public was... "Attorney General" Pam Bondi. Last we checked, even a real AG is not in the military chain of command.

Perhaps this will successfully deflect attention from the "double tap" scandal, though we tend to doubt it. It's even possible that it will make things worse. As The Bulwark's William Kristol observes, the tanker incident raises a pretty obvious question along the lines of "If the U.S. can take a giant oil tanker without killing anyone, why can't it take a tiny fishing boat without killing anyone?" It's almost like the administration WANTED to kill people. In any case, Venezuela is shaping up to be one of the sleeper issues of the 2026 campaign cycle. And remember, true MAGA patriots don't want the U.S. involved in foreign wars. That includes starting them. (Z)

Governance, Trump-Style, Part II: I Am Donald, Man of Peace

We've probably pointed out before that Theodore Roosevelt is the only person to have received both a Nobel Peace Prize and the Medal of Honor. In his time, it was not incongruous to be both a great warrior and a man of peace.

In our time, by contrast, it largely is incongruous. It's no secret that Donald Trump badly wants to join the Nobel Peace Prize club, in part because that makes him a more historic figure, and in part because it "ties" him with Barack Obama. But that is exceedingly unlikely to happen, in part because the Trump administration keeps killing innocent civilians, and in part because the people who vote on the Nobel despise Trump and everything he stands for.

That doesn't mean that Trump and his underlings are giving up, though. Back in February and March, the DOGEys ripped apart the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP), apparently because peace is not a good investment of the government's money (even a relatively paltry $65 million a year). USIP isn't quite dead yet, it's just mostly dead, like the Man in Black. However, it's not the U.S. Institute for Peace anymore, either. As of last week, it is known as The Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace.

Does this kind of branding actually work on anyone? Beyond the fact that Trump is obviously not a man of peace, he literally tried to kill this part of the government just months ago. If such branding does work, then why not expand it? The Bedminster Golf Course of Peace. The Trump Tower of Peace. Peace-a-Lago. The Peace Wing of the White House. We can only assume that this is some lackey (Secretary of State Marco Rubio?) trying to kiss Trump's posterior. Though it is possible that it is the doing of someone who wants to save USIP until a non-Trump president is in power, and who knows that there is no way Trump will kill it while his name is on it.

And speaking of kissing posterior, FIFA clearly misstepped when it awarded the 2026 World Cup to the U.S. There are many ways Trump could throw a wrench into the proceedings, and given his propensity for using sports to promote his political agenda, there's every risk he might do some of those things. That could be ICE patrols at games. It could be barring fans from certain (read: sh**hole) countries. It could even be detaining members of some of the competing teams.

That said, the last two World Cups were held in Qatar and Russia. So, FIFA leadership knows a thing or two about how to handle leaders who are corrupt, or bigoted, or authoritarian, or all of the above. In particular, FIFA President Gianni Infantino knows that such leaders tend to be suckers for shiny beads and shallow flattery. And so, last month, FIFA announced the creation of a brand-new award, the FIFA Peace Prize. And last week, FIFA announced that the inaugural winner of the FIFA Peace Prize is—surprise!—one Donald J. Trump. There's an almost delightful synergy there. If you were to poll people, and ask them to name the most famously corrupt organization in the world, we suspect that the top two finishers would be FIFA and the Trump Organization. And now, they've come together in a celebration of their... commonalities.

By all indications, Trump was thrilled by the "honor." It's absolutely stunning to us that someone who was a businessman for half a century, and who has been on the world stage for more than a decade, is apparently blissfully unaware when he is being played like a fiddle. It makes one wonder, and worry, about what happens when Trump is with someone like Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin behind closed doors, with stakes rather more significant than a football tournament. (Z)

Governance, Trump-Style, Part III: It Would Seem D.C. Is Too Woke...

We must apologize, as we do not live our lives based on what is written on 8chan, Gab or the Fox message boards. So, with things like this, we don't know if the point is to please the base (which is increasingly displeased these days) or if it's to allow people within the administration to vent their rage. Probably a bit from Column A and a bit from Column B.

Whatever is happening, the Trump administration's War on Woke was taken to some pretty big, and yet at the same time unbelievably trivial, extremes in the past week. To start—and our thanks to all the readers who sent us this story—there has been a font change at the Department of State. A couple of years ago, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken ordered the Department to start using a sans-serif font, Calibri, for all documents. The reason is that sans-serif fonts in general, and Calibri in particular, are easier to read for people with poor eyesight, dyslexia, etc.

Now, Marco Rubio has ordered the Department to switch back to a serif font, namely Times New Roman. In his memo announcing the change, he decreed that the switch to Calibri was "another wasteful DEI program," and that Times New Roman is more formal and more professional. This is part of a broader effort from the White House called "One Voice for America's Foreign Relations." So, it's Making America Great Again, one font at a time.

Of course, there are other Cabinet secretaries who are always looking for a chance to curry favor by worshiping at the anti-woke altar. One of those is Secretary of "Education" Linda McMahon. Her degree may be in French, but she helped run a wrestling promotion for many years, so she's obviously well qualified for her job. Because it was a necessary part of a court filing, the world is now aware of a 6-page list of words and phrases forbidden at DoEd subsidiary Head Start. Among those are "disability," "trauma," "women," "gender," "hate speech," "identity," "inclusive," "feminism," "racism" and "segregation." Wow. One hopes nobody at Head Start ever needs to address, say, the entire 1960s.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., over at the Department of "Health" and "Human Services," is another one who needs to stay in Trump's good graces. After all, he was once a Democrat, and after that was a rival for the presidency. His anti-woke tithe, this week, involves the official portrait of former HHS assistant secretary Adm. Rachel Levine. Levine is well known as the highest-ranking transgender person in the history of the U.S. government. And now, the plaque under her picture bears her deadname. No matter how much you dislike the person, and what they stand for, isn't this just unbelievably small and petty? Of course, Trump likes small and petty.

Finally, the White House itself is fighting its own particular battle, with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt taking the lead. A federal judge has ordered the administration to provide sign language interpreters for Leavitt's and Trump's public appearances, when practicable. The White House claims that it's not practicable, in most cases, and that using ASL interpreters "would severely intrude on the President's prerogative to control the image he presents to the public."

We don't really even understand what that last part means. Is he really better able to communicate with non-hearing people if they aren't able to understand what he's saying? Actually, maybe so. Even those of us who can hear don't understand what he's saying, much of the time. As to the "practicable" part, one cannot take that seriously. It would be very easy to hire a full-time ASL interpreter, and to give them additional duties when they are not busy signing. And if that doesn't work, there is a Washington D.C.-based bureau that hires out ASL interpreters by the hour. It is called Hands in Motion American Sign Language Interpreting Service and it is located 6 blocks from the White House. It's a 7-minute drive, or a 16-minute walk. So unless Trump or Leavitt have a message that MUST BE COMMUNICATED IN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES, they can easily get a signer.

Pretty much everything in this item is about basic decency, and trying to include everyone, even if they are different in one way or another. It's really depressing how many people in this administration not only disagree with that philosophy, but take active pleasure in doing things to be exclusionary. Though again, it's at least possible this is about politics, and making sure white noncollege men feel they are still #1. If so, we have no doubt that changing the plaque on a photo hanging in an office building in DC, or telling non-hearing people "tough luck," will make voters in 2026 completely forget about the price of insurance, or the cost of milk, or that their family farm is about to fail. (Z)

Governance, Trump-Style, Part IV: ...But Not Racist Enough

If "less inclusion" is the yin, then "more exclusion" is the yang. And in this case, we are absolutely confident that the goal is to pander to white voters in advance of the 2026 elections.

As we have written before, one of the biggest challenges of Donald Trump's style of leadership—demagoguery—is that there's a constant need for new scapegoats. For example, when was the last time you heard him talk about MS-13 or the border wall? Those things have largely lost their salience, in part because he clearly has no real ability to do anything about MS-13 or the border wall.

This week, at a rally in Minnesota, Trump unveiled a new bugaboo. Actually, it's an old bugaboo, but he's been leaning into it in a manner not previously seen from him. The new target is Somali-Americans in general, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN) in particular. It is true that they, and she, are somewhat evergreen targets because they are both brown and Muslim. But Trump's remarks this week, both at a Cabinet meeting and at one of his rallies, could—and please be assured we do not write this lightly—have come right from the mouth of Adolf Hitler. The man who ostensibly represents all Americans described Omar as "garbage" and said that Somalia "stinks and we don't want them in our country," while also adding that Somalia itself is "barely a country."

Incidentally, in case you are thinking about your 2028 presidential vote, when J.D. Vance heard Trump say those things, he pounded the table and applauded. Based on the ample evidence available to us, we think that when Trump says these hateful things about Somalis (and other non-white people), he really means it. On the other hand, Vance is married to a woman who is both brown and Hindu, and before he was MAGA, he behaved decently toward people. So, our guess is that he doesn't really believe it, he's just performing for the benefit of Trump and of the base. Truth be told, we're not 100% sure which is worse, someone who is speaking hateful words, or someone whose lust for power is so great they are willing to pretend they believe those hateful words.

ICE has already gotten the news that Somalis are the target du jour (we'd guess Stephen Miller broke the land speed record rushing to his phone, so he could communicate that to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and her underlings). So, ICE has been patrolling the Somali-heavy neighborhoods of Minneapolis. As per usual, being a citizen affords no protection if you have the wrong "look."

Not only do we have a pretty good idea as to what the goal is here, we also have a pretty good idea as to what "inspired" Team Trump to shift its focus to Somali-Americans. Last Friday, a confrontation between a couple of Somali-Americans and a Cinnabon employee named Crystal Wilsey in a small town in Wisconsin was caught on video. It's a little unclear what set things off, but Wilsey was very angry that she was being filmed, so she responded by proudly proclaiming that "I am a racist," making an obscene gesture, and slurring the two Somalis with the racial slur you are never supposed to use, particularly on camera. Wilsey was fired and immediately became the focal point of a lot of "When did it become a crime to be white?" carping; she's since received donations well north of $100,000.

Do you really think it's a coincidence that within 48 hours of Wilsey going viral, Trump and his underlings were leaning into hatred of Somali Americans? We certainly don't. In effect, the response to Wilsey was like a focus group poll—this is the kind of thing YOUR voters want to hear. It is abundantly clear, from the election results of the last few weeks, not to mention approval ratings, that Trump and his movement are losing right now. And he's doing the only things he knows to do in order to try to flip the script. But things are likely to get worse for him and for MAGA. And when they do, particularly if devastating losses in the midterms appear to be imminent, he's going to get worse and worse. If and when he does, heaven help us all, but in particular those he would scapegoat. (Z)

Crazypants Gubernatorial Candidate News: Republican Prospects Dim a Bit in Ohio, Minnesota

Republican muckety mucks might not admit it on the record, but they know they've got a potential candidate quality problem in Ohio. And, this week, they got one in Minnesota, as well.

Starting with the Buckeye State, Vivek Ramaswamy has cleared the Republican field of any serious competition, largely because he has the White House and the GOP establishment fully behind him. However, he's got some pretty serious weaknesses. He's crazypants, first of all, and says a lot of impolitic things, particularly about women. He's also got no experience in public office, and there are certainly some people who don't believe the governorship of a large state should be an entry-level job. Oh, and he's brown. Just as there are some Democrats (and even more Republicans) who won't vote for a woman, there are some Republicans who won't vote for a non-white person.

Meanwhile, the near-certain Democratic nominee is Amy Acton. To the extent that Democrats can come up with a "nightmare" matchup for Ramaswamy, she's it. First, she's a woman, and things like abortion access are going to be key issues in this campaign. She's also got extensive experience in the public sector, having served in the Ohio Department of Health, rising to be director of that agency. She has name recognition, and a reservoir of goodwill, from her role in leading the state's response to COVID. It is true that some anti-vaxxers/MAGA types hate her for her work during the pandemic, but those folks were never going to vote Democratic anyhow.

When Acton first announced, polls had her trailing Ramaswamy by as much as 10 points. But more recent polling suggests strongly that she's pulled even, or nearly so. In fact, in two of the last three polls of the race, she led her likely GOP opponent by a point. That includes the new poll from Emerson released this week, which has Acton with 46% support and Ramaswamy with 45%.

Naturally, any poll taken nearly a year before Election Day must be taken with several grains of salt. That said, there are several things about this one that should make the Republicans at least a little nervous. First, Emerson tends to have a slight Republican lean, and so it's less likely that the pollster is overestimating Acton than it would be if this was, say, a PPP poll. Second, and somewhat consistent with the first point, Ramaswamy's best poll of the cycle was from Emerson. Back in August, the pollster had him up 49% to 39%. This suggests there's been real movement, and that this is not just statistical noise.

And the scariest thing, from the GOP perspective, is found in the crosstabs of the new Emerson poll. Back in August, Ramaswamy's lead was being powered by men, who broke for him by nearly 20 points, 54% to 36%. Women voters, at that time, were about evenly split, with 44% for him, 42% for her. In the new poll, Ramaswamy still has a big lead among male voters, 55% to 35%. However, women have swung dramatically toward Acton, now favoring her 56% to 37%.

It is almost impossible that such movement is statistical noise; the pollster almost certainly is capturing real movement toward the Democratic candidate. And when it's so clear what's making Acton competitive, it sends a useful signal to her as to what her campaign themes should be (think: women's issues, like reproductive choice, and affordability issues that women voters are particularly likely to care about, like child care costs). It also sends a useful signal to the many pro-women PACs as to where they should be spending their money.

Meanwhile, there's also a big-time Senate race in Ohio in 2026, and Acton and former senator Sherrod Brown (D) are somewhat joined at the hip. If her tide rises, his probably does, as well. In the last three polls of the likely race against Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Brown was up by 3 (48% to 45%), up by 1 (49% to 48%), and down by 3 (46% to 49%). The worst of those three was the same Emerson poll that had good news for Acton. But Brown is a wily veteran politico, and we would guess that he and Acton are going to be able to put together a much more unified 1-2 messaging punch than Husted and Ramaswamy, primarily because Ramaswamy has loose lips and does not stay on script.

Moving on to Minnesota, the prize for kookiest gubernatorial candidate of the 2026 cycle has already been locked up. It's the MyPillow guy, Mike Lindell (Q), who has been hinting at a run for months, and who officially announced yesterday that he will try to win the right to challenge incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN).

We do not claim to have our finger on the pulse of Minnesota politics. And we recognize that this is a state that has been known to elect some pretty unorthodox people, like Jesse Ventura. But we simply cannot see a world where the people of Minnesota, who are known for being pretty centrist and very down-to-earth, would EVER elect Mike Lindell. And that's before you consider the headwinds that are likely to be caused by Donald Trump's increasing unpopularity, since Lindell is just a Trump avatar/clone.

Assuming we are right, then Lindell can only have one possible impact here. Because he is "a candidate" and because he will presumably stay in through the primaries (August 11), he's going to have a platform, which is what he really cares about. And he's going to be a constant reminder of the nuttiest parts of Trumpism, particularly the conspiratorial thinking about the 2020 elections. He'll be an anchor around the neck of Republican candidates, up and down the ballot, in a year where, once again, Trumpism looks to be out of favor.

We don't dismiss the possibility that Walz could lose his reelection bid, though we wouldn't bet on it, since he's pretty popular, and he polls 5-7 points ahead of all of the potential Republican challengers. What we are sure of is that Lindell is not going to take Walz down. And he's almost certainly going to make it harder for any other Republican who might have a real shot to take Walz down. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: What Did He Know, and When Did He Know It?

We're not going to have a Christmas game today, since we've already got this headline game. But we will have four new games next week, and we will also start revealing answers and high scorers. So, you still have a few days to take your best shot at these:

• Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part I: Ugly Sweaters
• Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part II: Christmas Movie Trivia
• Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part III: Pictograms
• Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part IV: Three Little Words
• Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part V: Shakespeare Sings His Hits

The most recent headline game was actually 2 weeks ago, due to illness last week. We gave the hint that "we made a deliberate grammar error in two headlines (the same basic grammar error in each case), and if you notice what it is, it's a very big clue" and we actually also snuck in that the theme was "pretty elementary." We later added: "If you are still working on the headline theme, we'll say that if we wanted to keep things nice and airy, we would have written headlines that incorporated the letters 'H,' 'O' and 'N,' just like we used 'U' and 'I.'"

And here is the solution, courtesy of reader P.D. in Lanham, MD:

Elementary indeed! These are all chemical symbols of various elements:

• Abuse of Power, Part II: Not a Good Time to Be on the President's Enemies' List—"Be" is the symbol for beryllium, atomic number 4.
• Abuse of Power, Part III: Kash Patel, In Save-My-Neck Mode, Is Kicking Himself—"In" is the symbol for indium, atomic number 49.
• Thanksgiving Games: Easy As Pie, Part II—"As" is the symbol for arsenic, atomic number 33.
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Don't Cry No Tears—"No" is the symbol for nobelium, atomic number 102.
• This Week in Schadenfreude: Putting the I in AI?—"I" is the symbol for iodine, atomic number 53.
• This Week in Freudenfreude: Thank U, Part II—"U" is the symbol for uranium, atomic number 92.

(and note that "Pd" is the symbol for palladium, atomic number 46)

And "H," "O," and "N," from the Sunday clue are hydrogen, oxygen and nitrogen—the main components of air. And from this item's headline, "He" is helium. Oh, and the grammar error was improper capitalization of prepositions.

Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:

D.B. in Glendale, CA M.H. in Ottawa, ON, Canada G.M.K. in Mishawaka, IN S.K. in Ardmore, PA T.F. in Craftsbury Common, VT R.S. in Landing, NJ M.M. in Dunellen, NJ M.K. in Long Branch, NJ P.H. in Ft. Lauderdale, FL M.S. in Canton, NY R.G. in Baltimore, MD J.E. in San Jose, CA G.A. in North Bay, ON, Canada E.W. in Skaneateles, NY J.R. in Orlando, FL S.T. in Federal Way, WA D.M. in Oakland, CA D.E. in Ann Arbor, MI M.W. in Altea, Spain P.D. in Lanham H.B. in Toronto, ON, Canada B.P. in Salt Lake City, UT D.L. in Springfield, IL M.W. in Newington, CT J.L.G. in Boston, MA

J.N. in Zionsville, IN S.W. in Winter Garden, FL K.H. in Albuquerque, NM R.R. in Chewelah, WA M.A. in Soquel, CA K.J. in Toronto, ON, Canada G.W. in Avon, CT T.K. in Manchester, MO E.B. in Hannover, Germany C.J. in Boulder, CO L.C. in Brookline, MA M.J. in Oakdale, MN B.H. in Sherman Oaks, CA A.O'N. in Wiesbaden, Germany K.R. in Austin, TX P.J. in Quakertown, PA J.F. in Fayetteville, NC R.D. in Cheshire, CT T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts E.S. in Cincinnati, OH T.T. in Conway, AR D.O. in Brookline, MA S.G. in Durham, NC M.N. in Lake Ann, MI G.S. in Basingstoke, England, UK

The 50th correct response was received at 6:31 p.m. PT on Saturday, November 29.

For this week's theme, it relies on one "word" per headline, and it's in the category Mathematics. Or maybe History. It does NOT include the headline on racism, because we don't want to make a game of that. For a hint, we'll note that the 50 readers who appear on next week's list will definitely be able to say they came, they saw, they conquered. And finally, we must thank reader D.M. in Grand Rapids, MI, who gave us the idea.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "December 12 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Nuzzi Book Did Not Sell Well, to Say the Least

The Olivia Nuzzi story has been getting a LOT of coverage for the past couple of months. This is not a surprise. First, because the media, even the "serious" media, loves any excuse to cover a salacious story. Second, because the story came out drip by drip by drip, as opposed to all at once. That meant there were "new" angles to cover a couple of times a week. Gotta fill those column inches! (Or, gotta light those pixels!)

For those who did not pay attention—and we don't blame you—Nuzzi was (and may think she still is) a journalist. She caught on with some pretty big-time publications before she'd even graduated college, and drew some pretty high-profile assignments. In 2023, she was covering the presidential campaign for New York magazine, during which she wrote a widely circulated and very flattering feature about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and another piece critical of Joe Biden. After the campaign was long over, and Donald Trump was again in office, it came out that Nuzzi had an affair of some sort with Kennedy. The exact nature of the affair is in dispute—Kennedy says he barely remembers meeting Nuzzi, Nuzzi says it was more of an emotional affair, other sources say it turned physical.

This is the very first time we have so much as mentioned Nuzzi's name on this site, and the reason is that we could not see the relevance of this story, even given the massive coverage it's gotten. Nuzzi has been an attention-seeker, and someone looking to gain wealth and fame through whatever path presents itself, for years. RFK Jr. is a sleazeball extraordinaire who has inherited the family habit of cheating on romantic partners left, right and center. Whatever he did or did not do with Nuzzi, he's done with many women who were not his wife. And speaking of that wife, Cheryl Hines, she has... accepted (?) his infidelities, we guess. By that we mean, she did not leave him, but she DID move to Washington, so she could keep an eye on him.

We only provide this information so all readers are on the same page. We really don't care about the sex lives of any of these people, as that's their business, and they can swing in whatever way they want to swing. We do get some unpleasant she's-being-brainwashed vibes from Hines, but even if it was enough to be actionable, it's not like there's anything we could do about it.

What we do deplore, however, is the public behavior of these people. RFK Jr.'s willingness to profit off of his loony, conspiratorial ideas about health, and his willingness to let people die in service of his MAHA agenda, are reprehensible. Hines' recent whiny book, in which she blames all of her problems on the Democrats, is not a great look either. And, of course, we disdain Nuzzi's unethical behavior in reporting on a political campaign in which she was personally involved with one of the candidates. We also disdain her lightning-quick move to cash in on the whole scandal, with an I'm-a-martyr book entitled American Canto that was published this week.

In view of our less-than-warm feelings about Nuzzi's professional behavior, we most certainly feel some schadenfreude over the fact that the volume landed with an absolute thud. The publisher, Simon & Schuster, did everything possible to give it a profitable launch. There were dozens of media hits. Reviews in The New York Times and The Washington Post. Prominent placement on Amazon. An advertising campaign. If our upcoming holiday-themed book of Trump-inspired Christmas carols, The Grift of the MAGAi, had that kind of backing, it would have sold millions of copies. At least, that's our guess.

By contrast, in its first week, the Nuzzi book sold 1,156 copies in hardcover. Heck, you can do better than that by slapping fake Dianetics dust jackets on a book, and tricking Scientologists as they make their weekly mass purchases (which they do to keep the book a perpetual "bestseller"). Nuzzi claims she doesn't care about the poor sales figures, and that she wrote the book for people in 10, 20, or 30 years, when she will be vindicated. Anyone who believes that, raise your hand. Yeah, we didn't think so.

What we REALLY want now is a reason to make RFK Jr. the star of "This Week in Schadenfreude," rather than just a supporting player. Are you listening, Santa? (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Thank U, Part III

The day after Veterans' Day, we put a note at the top of the page that said that while we agree with thanking veterans, there are other people in our society who deserve thanks, too, and asked if readers agree. The response to that was overwhelming, so we split the responses into three parts, which have taken a while to complete, because of interruptions to our production schedule. Here is Part I, if you'd like to look back, and here is Part II. Today, we conclude with a few messages about the military, reporters, and people in the sciences, as well as a few we couldn't quite categorize:

B.Z. in Baltimore, MD writes: I had two grandfathers, an unremarkable number for certain. A more remarkable thing about them is that one served in an artillery role in World War II, and one of them was a Conscientious Objector, refused to be drafted and served alternative service as an orderly in a mental hospital instead. I think my CO grandfather is also worthy of recognition, both for his service and for his commitment to his beliefs.

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M.S. in Canton, NY, writes: On Veterans Day, and again the next day, you mentioned the importance of recognizing the support provided by spouses of those who serve in the military. My parents are buried together at Arlington National Cemetery. My mother passed away first, in 1996. Burials at Arlington are carefully scripted, but despite that—or maybe because of it—they are also very moving. One of the officiants read a description of her life, and it included a line that I momentarily thought was simply a mistake, until I heard the second half: "She served her country in World War II... as a loyal Navy wife." I had never thought of it that way, but instantly realized that it was so true.

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G.R. in Tarzana, CA, writes: Real reporters and journalists who work hard to get the truth out regarding things that the powers that be, from all sides of the spectrum, would rather not get out. And of course, people like yourselves, who use their own time and money to help enlighten us about what is really going on, so that we can not only be more informed about our world, but so that we can occasionally take a deep breath and move a step back from the precipice, if only for a few moments.

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A.I. in Honolulu, HI, writes: In this age of abundant misinformation, rampant propaganda and blatant lying, I would like to thank all the journalists and other members of the free press (including some bloggers) who seek the truth and strive to keep the public informed. Especially when they face open hostility and even mortal threats from politicians and pundits, they deserve our gratitude for trying to keep the light shining.

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R.R. in Pasadena, CA, writes: I was raised to thank people, so I do it all the time just as a second nature, even for small things like holding a door. It smooths the world over to give people a bit of gratitude for doing something, and hopefully encourages them to do other nice things. So, thanks to everyone who says thanks.

This also made me think of my mom, not just because she was a nurse (which has already been mentioned). She grew up in a Mormon family and was working at the big hospital in my conservative home town when the AIDS crisis lit off in the early 1980s. At the time, it was affecting pretty much only gay men, who weren't exactly favored by people in red America (or really in blue, either, back then). A lot of the doctors and nurses were hesitant to give them care, both because of the danger but also because, at some level, they thought that gay men "deserved" their fate for their "evil ways." My mom was an IV specialist, so all she did was run around giving IVs to everyone in the hospital... including the gay men. One mistake and she might have contracted AIDS and died (and at the time they weren't sure it couldn't be spread at home either). As one of the people most at risk she had legitimacy in talking about it, and she apparently shamed the hospital staff who weren't treating the patients properly into doing so. I have never gotten the details of exactly how that was done, but it was always clear that my mom got a lot of respect that an average nurse wouldn't receive, so she must have had a large impact on what was going on and reminding doctors and nurses of their oaths to treat everyone in need.

I can't thank my mom anymore, so thanks to the people out there who stand up to an injustice, no matter how small, and refuse to go along with treating people as less than human, especially when they are in desperate need of help.

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L.C. in Southfield, MI, writes: Laboratory technologists and technicians. Doctors and nurses were thanked profusely during the pandemic—understandable, as they are the faces of health care—but we in the lab kept test results churning out 24/7. We are mostly invisible, and earn a pittance of what doctors and nurses make, but an estimated 80% of medical diagnoses are based on the results we provide.

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S.S. in Lynchburg, VA, writes: Please recognize engineers and scientists. They make sacrifices for our country, grinding through grueling training that not many Americans are willing to endure. In fact, Chinese citizens choose to make this sacrifice for their country at a rate nearly double that of Americans. This gap is creating one of the greatest threats to the American military. Our military can't match our adversaries soldier for soldier. It is highly dependent on science and technology to provide a force multiplier.

Engineers and scientists also create the power systems, infrastructure and production capability that make our economy run. They make us safer and improve our quality of life. For all this, you would think our country would be eager to express its gratitude, but instead our popular media generally disparages scientists and engineers. The negative portrayal weakens our country by discouraging citizens from entering these fields. Even worse, it creates a public mistrust of scientific information, leading our government to follow disastrously bad policies.

Scientists and engineers make a huge contribution to keeping our country free. Showing appreciation for their service is not only the decent thing to do. It also makes America stronger, safer and a better place to live.

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R.P. in Somerville, MA, writes: I don't know if it was necessary to throw shade at doctors for getting more glory and salary than other medical workers. Doctors also face more lawsuits, since the buck for medical decision-making ultimately stops with them. They get there by doing way more training, including ongoing education, often take on more work like teaching without extra pay, and on top of that, are often very much are in the thick of it with nurses, PAs, and other medical workers. Also, doctor salaries in some specialties are stagnant compared with other medical practitioners.

I think your intent was to highlight workers like paramedics, EMTs, nurses, PAs, etc, which is valid. And many doctors are pompous asses, for sure. But it came across like a class commentary. You guys can do better.

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J.K. in New York City, NY, writes: My wife is an emergency medicine doctor at a VA hospital. VA emergency departments are often rough places, with a lot of vets who have had hard lives. She sees a lot of substance abuse, people who neglect their health, and people with mental illness and trauma. She specializes in women veterans. Sexual military trauma is very common. VA systems are often not set up for women's health, and as you can imagine, the politics of care for women vets is brutal.

During COVID there was a VA leadership crisis, where many managers and department heads disappeared. There was a serious shortage of supplies and very scary chaos, where care for some had to be sacrificed in ways that were not clearly planned or understood. My wife had to wrap herself in a garbage bag to use as a "gown" and had to oven-heat her one N95 mask to re-sterilize it. At the worst point, the ED was crowded with people dying in the halls. Vets weren't allowed visitors and she had to tell isolated people who were dying that they were seen and being cared for, even if it felt like they were being left alone. COVID is still an open wound for emergency doctors. The VA, like all thoughtful medicine, tries to emphasize primary care, but the emergency department is often the only help that many vets seek, so it is clogged-up with non-emergencies, including chronic conditions that go untreated. It's very difficult work. Patients are often belligerent and even violent. Doctors are often defensive, angry, and scared of patients.

My wife takes time to thank her patients for their service—when she first started working at the VA some 20 years ago, she thought the phrase was cliched and hackneyed. But over the years she's come to see and deeply believe that thanks is definitely deserved and that the vets sacrificed so much that is not recoverable. Many generally feel unseen. When they see her genuineness they often feel moved and appreciative. There are many, many doctors, nurses, and other staff who pour their souls into trying to do the best they can in what is often an overwhelming and even depressing system. While it is true and important that the VA needs to be improved in many ways, I think the repercussions of war and even the possibilities of war makes a horrible situation inevitable for many.

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D.E. in Fremont, CA, writes: Blood donors! Repeat: Altruistic blood donation is the backbone of a safe, reliable and equitable blood system. Donors whose only incentive is to help others (as opposed to paid donors or even donors motivated by social pressure, such as at workplace blood drives) are likelier to answer screening questions honestly, contributing to a safer blood supply. Those who qualify through screening and then donate blood regularly are literally saving lives.

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A.S. in Lenora Hills, CA, writes: On the topic of thanking people: how about a round of applause for immigrants. Those who work our farms, build our houses, clean our houses and offices, drive our taxis, care for our children, mow our lawns, sell us gas and beer and pork rinds, deliver our packages, bus our tables, cook our restaurant orders, wash our clothes, fix our cars, treat our illnesses, design our houses, teach our children, rent our houses, design our landscapes, invent new medicines, develop apps for our phones, teach our college students, police our streets, employ people in their businesses, invest in our country, go to war for our country and/or serve in government. They have made this country what it is.

P.S. I'm a descendant of immigrants—fourth generation. Aren't we (almost) all.

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S.B. in Hood River, OR, writes: I would like to add animal shelter technicians to the list of unsung heroes. These people have a job that is often unpleasant, sometimes heart-rending, and for little pay. They do it for the love of the animals. They work very hard to make life in the shelter, which is stressful for the animals, as comfortable as possible. Having worked with animal rescue organizations for many years, I have firsthand knowledge of these amazing people.

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J.C. in Bloomington, IL, writes: I wanted to thank you for the segment you did on the thanks we all owe to workers of many stripes—not just veterans.

As the son of a union carpenter/cabinetmaker, I've always tried to remember to thank my father for his dedication to his craft every Labor Day. While he's not out there saving lives, people who work in the trades are what I consider America's backbone. They make tangible products with their hands and the really good ones make items which will last many lifetimes.

So here's a thanks to all the tradesmen out there! Especially you, dad!

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R.T. in Arlington, TX, writes: I would like to extend your notion of people deserving thanks. I have an adult child with special needs who works as a night cleaner at a local university. He struggles with moderate depression, and I have used similar sentiments to encourage him. He is a hero to me simply because he gets up and goes to work every day, earning the living he receives. What he does is work that few others would accept and he should be proud of it for that reason alone. I wish we could find a way as a society to thank people for being decent, for working to take care of themselves and their families, and not being trouble to the community. Kant said to be happy we need someone to love, something to do, and something to hope for. Work itself deserves more respect than it gets.

We also got a couple of "pushback" messages in response to our original posting; we thought we'd close with those:

J.R. in Grand Rapids, MI, writes: I really love you guys (please let me know the best way to donate, since I'm way overdue to do so). However, I'm a lawyer who is 6'4" who wears custom suits (I'm a hard guy to fit) and (sometimes) wears Allen Edmonds shoes (they're really good and comfortable shoes that last a long time). I'm also the recipient of awards from my local Legal Aid office and from the State Bar of Michigan (in 2023) for my outstanding pro bono work which I have earned while working as a sole practitioner without a firm behind me, albeit with some great employees. You can make a good living, wear good clothes, and still serve the people who really need help—I've been doing it for 43 years now.

Sorry to quibble, but that one got to me. I realize this is not truly a correction, but I didn't know where else to send it. Keep up the great work.

And I work downtown in a historic office building. If any of you are ever unlucky enough to be in Grand Rapids, please stop by for a visit.

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J.A. in Manchester, NH, writes: As a veteran, I'm very grateful for what you wrote thanking us. And it was also very thoughtful of you to follow up and show gratitude to those others who go about their daily lives making life a little easier for their fellow citizens.

My one and only issue... when you noted you think about the teachers, you excluded yourselves.

I have shared my background before but I'll summarize again: I grew up in less than ideal circumstances in an environment where my intellect was suppressed (I'll spare you the less pleasant details). Fast forward to me at 34. I was in a bad marriage that was ending (thankfully without kids, who would have gotten hurt) and I started taking classes part time at night at Bridgewater State College (MA). Turned out I was good at it. So I transferred to another postal facility so I could work overnight and graduate from the honors program with a double (Poli-Sci and History).

But the difference was the professors. They saw something in me that they challenged and, for lack of a better way of putting it, pushed me to develop. They encouraged critical analysis and lateral thinking. Best of all, they were able to do that without imposing their views, but rather, enabling me to refine my own.

Because of them, I was able to go on to law school obtain a J.D. and since then, I've been fortunate enough to work in the background making life a little easier for low wage earners and now for employees at the VA who render care to our veterans.

But as my career winds down (I turn 62 next month), I never forget that without people like you challenging students and helping them develop their analytical skills, I would have likely been on a different path.

So, without further delay, allow me to thank you for what you do. It's very necessary, especially in the age of social media and hyper-disinformation.

Our thanks to J.A. in Manchester (and others) for the kind words! As to J.R. in Grand Rapids, we only chose Allen Edmonds because we couldn't remember the brand name we actually wanted to use, which was Berluti Alessandro. Sorry about that, and as to donations, there are a couple of buttons on the upper right hand corner of the page, depending on what suits your needs best.

Allow us to extend our appreciation to everyone who sent in messages, and we'll be back to the normal format for this feature next week. Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

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