Hot House Races in 2010

Below is a list of House races likely to be top priority in 2010. These were all very close (5% or less in 2008). Races where the candidate of the dominant party (by PVI) won by 4-5% are probably not so competitive and are not listed unless there is some other reason to do so. See also the House retirements page. More races will be added over time.

AL-02      PVI: R+16

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bobby Bright (D)	Martha Roby (R)	Bobby Bright was mayor of Montgomery and pulled off an upset by winning this otherwise conservative district against state representative Jay Love by 0.6%. At the same time, John McCain won the district by 26%. The Republicans will be gunning for Bright in 2010. The expected Republican candidate is Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby.

AL-05      PVI: R+12

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Parker Griffith (D)	(R)	Parker Griffith, a former state senator and now freshman representative won an open seat in this Republican district. The Republicans are surely going to go after him big time in 2010. One potential candidate is Les Phillip, a right-wing, black, former naval aviator and businessman. If he is nominated, it will be interesting to see if the local rednecks prefer a moderate white guy or a right-wing black guy. But probably there will be more Republican entrants.

CA-03      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dan Lungren (R)	Bill Durston (D)	Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) is likely to be challenged for the third straight time by physician Bill Durston (D). Lungren won by 6 points in 2008, but the race has attracted the DCCC's attention (and money) and Lungren may be in for a much tougher fight this time. While Lungren hasn't gotten the nomination yet, with the DCCC's tacit backing, a primary challenger seems improbable.

CA-04      PVI: R+10

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom McClintock (R)	(D)	This was an open seat in 2008 after Rep. John Doolittle retired in a series of scandals that tied him closely to convicted felon Jack Abramoff. It was a bitter contest and McClintock won by 0.5% against retired Air Force pilot Charlie Brown. Could be close again in 2010 despite the Republican tilt of the district.

CO-04      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Betsy Markey (D)	(R)	Betsy Markey toppled firebrand Marilyn Musgrave in 2008 in this moderately Republicann district largely because Musgrave was so over the top that even Republicans couldn't stand her any more. The most likely Republican candidate is state representative Cory Gardner, who is doing a good job of fundraising. However, Markey is no slouch; she raised $950,000 through Sept. 2009. But given the lean of the district, it could be close.

CA-44      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ken Calvert (R)	Bill Hedrick (D)	This race really wasn't on the radar as everyone expected nine-term congressman Ken Calvert to cruise to another 20-point win, as he did in 2004 and 2006. But he won by only 2 points against an unknown challenger. However, that challenger, Bill Hedrick, is a lot better known and more experienced now. He is running again and this time the DCCC will back him with expertise and funds.

DE-AL      PVI: D+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(R)	John Carney (D)	When Rep. Mike Castle decided to run for the Senate, he pretty much turned his seat over to the Democrats. Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) has announced he is running for it but the Republicans have almost no one of any stature to put up against him.

FL-08      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Alan Grayson (D)	(R)	Alan Grayson was a a lawyer with a special interest in suing defense contractors like Halliburton. As a brand new freshman, he started making waves in the House practically on day 1 when he asked the Fed Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, how much bailout money had been given to specific banks and what collateral the public got in return. Kohn was not amused. Grayson later described the Republican health plan as: "die quickly." This made him a big hero among the netroots who will raise money for him, but his district is pretty evenly split, so remarks like this may cut both ways. Several Republicans are already testing the waters for a potential run but none have committed yet.

FL-10      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bill Young (R)	Charlie Justice (D)	Bill Young has been elected to the House 18 times, usually with not much opposition, but in 2010 his luck may be running out. State Senate minority leader Charlie Justice (D) has announced a challenge to Young that Young will not be able to ignore. The district, just west of Tampa Bay, is R+01, and with a serious opponent this time, the 78-year-old congressman may decide to retire, leading to a open seat in a swing district. Either way, this once-sure Republican seat is now a tossup.

FL-24      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Suzanne Kosmas (D)	(R)	As a freshwoman representative who won a tough fight in a somewhat Republican district, Suzanne Kosmas knew she would have a battle on her hands in 2010. To her good fortune, quite a few Republicans smell blood in the water, but it could be their own in a bloody primary.

GA-12      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Barrow (D)	(R)	This district is highly competitive although Barack Obama took it by 9 points, largely due to the black turnout, which will probably be lower in 2010. The Republicans may have found a candidate in wealthy orthopedic surgeon and Iraq veteran Lt. Col. Wayne Mosley, who can afford to self fund his candidacy. But the record of rich newbies challenging incumbents is not good.

ID-01      PVI: R+18

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Walt Minnick (D)	(R)	Walt Minnick didn't actually win this seat; rather, the incumbent, Bill Sali lost it due to his confrontational attitude. McCain swept the district by 20 points, so with a better candidate, the Republicans might win it back. Sali is looking at a rematch, but the reasons he lost in 2008 are likely to still be present in 2010 unless he can learn to tone down his personality a lot. However, Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward and state representative Ken Roberts are also likely to enter the primary.

IL-10      PVI: D+6

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	With Mark Kirk running for the Senate, his seat in this swing district in the Chicago suburbs opened up. State representative Beth Coulsohn and businessman Dick Green may battle for the Republican nomination. On the Democratic side, it may be Dan Seals, who has already run twice for the seat, vs. state representative Julie Hamos. It is likely to be a close race no matter who the nominees are.

LA-02      PVI: D+25

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joseph Cao (R)	(D)	This is a hugely Democratic district that the Republican won because the incumbent, "Dollar Bill" Jefferson was caught with $90,000 in his freezer. The Democrats almost certainly win it back in 2010. Two state representatives, Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta will duke it out in a primary, but either one will bury Cao.

LA-03      PVI: R+12

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	With Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) now running for the Senate against Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), Melancon's seat is up for grabs in this heavily Republican (R+12) district. In the great Louisiana tradition, a free-for-all is expected in the primaries.

LA-04      PVI: R+11

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Fleming (R)	(D)	John Fleming, a physician, won this race by a mere 350 votes in a runoff, the closest House race in the country. Given that kind of margin, the Democrats will try hard to knock him off.

MD-01      PVI: R+13

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Frank Kratovil (D)	(R)	This was an open seat because a Republican challenger, Andy Harris, knocked off the Republican incumbent, Wayne Gilchrest from the right in the primary and then proved too much to stomach in the general election, even for a very Republican district. If the Republicans can come up with someone a bit more moderate, they stand a good chance to get the seat back. However, if Harris runs again--and he says he will--Kratovil, now an incumbent, might survive. still, if Harris is defeated in a primary by a more moderate Republican, the odds will change.

MI-07      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Schauer (D)	(R)	Mark Schauer knocked off incumbent Tim Walberg here by about 2%, but that is close enough that the Republicans will mount a serious challenge to him, especially since it is "their" district (R+2). In particular, Walberg wants his job back, but he may have competition for the nomination.

MI-09      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gary Peters (D)	(R)	Freshman Gary Peters got only 52% of the vote in 2008, although the district is slightly Democratic. As a result, he is likely to be a target. He is in slightly better shape than Mark Schauer, though, because his district is D+2 instead of R+2.

MN-03      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Erik Paulsen (R)	(D)	Freshman Erik Paulsen won this exactly evenly split district with only 48% of the vote in a three-way race in 2008. There is some evidence that the Independence Party candidate hurt the Democrat more than he hurt Paulsen. Furthermore, Obama carried the district with 52% of the vote. All in all, Paulsen will definitely be on the Democrats' radar in 2010. There is no obvious Democratic challenger yet.

MN-06      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Michele Bachmann (R)	(D)	Michele Bachmann looked like she would win easily until she made some incendiary remarks calling for McCarthy-like investigations of members of Congress for alleged anti-Americanism. These comments raised $1 million for her challenger in 24 hours and he nearly took her down. Democrats really despise her and will go all out to get her in 2010. Although her district is R+7, she is so wacky, that she will really have to fight in 2010. The most likely challenger is the assistant majority leader of the state Senate, Tarryl Clark. If Clark is chosen at a springtime party convention, she probably won't face any primary opponents and this will be one of the hottest races in 2010.

MS-01      PVI: R+14

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Travis Childers (D)	(R)	Travis Childers won a special election last year and then won the general election but he may face a far stronger opponent next year in state senator Alan Nunnelee (R) in this heavily Republican district.

NV-03      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dina Titus (D)	(R)	Dina Titus, the former minority leader in the state Senate and unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate in 2006, got only 48% of the vote in 2008, 1% less than Obama although the district is D+2. The Republicans have two potential candidates here: John Guedry, a former bank executive who can self fund is campaign, and Clark County Republican chairman Brian Scroggins. They may face off in a primary.

NJ-03      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Adler (D)	(R)	State senator John Adler won this open seat in a swing district in 2008 by 4 points. It is likely to be competitive again in 2010.

NJ-07      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Leonard Lance (R)	(D)	Freshman Leonard Lance got just 51% of the vote in a district in which Obama also got 51% of the vote. These numbers alone guarantee a big fight and a close race in 2010. Also, a freshman in the minority won't be able to bring home much bacon in his first term. The person he beat, Linda Stender, has already run twice in this district so the the Democrats may look for someone else next time.

NH-02      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Rep. Paul Hodes is running for the Senate, which enticed the man he beat for the House seat, Charlie Bass, to try to get his old job back. However, Bass may have to face a fire-breathing right-wing radio host, Jennifer Horn (the 2008 nominee) in a very bloody ideological primary. The Democrats will probably have an easier time of it, as attorney Ann Kuster seems to be the only serious candidate.

NM-02      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Teague (D)	(R)	Harry Teague (D) picked up this seat in 2008 when the incumbent, Steve Pearce (R), made an unsuccessful run for the Senate. Pearce may now want his old job back. The district is moderately Republican, so he has a decent shot at getting it, too. As of the end of Sept. 2009, Teague had $760,000 in the bank to Pearce's $460,000. It will be a big slugest.

NY-13      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike McMahon (D)	(R)	Freshman Mike McMahon won this one in 2008 as a result of serious of freak accidents, starting with the arrest for drunken driving of the incumbent, followed by the discovery that said incumbent had two families, one in New York and one in Virginia. Then the Republican candidate--whose son tried unsuccessfully to get the Libertarian nomination to defeat his father--died and was replaced by someone the top Republican in the district vowed to defeat. Hard for any Democrat to lose under those conditions. Now McMahon has to actually beat a serious Republican in an R+4 district.

NY-20      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Scott Murphy (D)	(R)	Scott Murphy won his seat in a bitterly fought special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand after she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat in the Senate. The district leans Republican, but Democrats have won the past three elections here, so Murphy certainly has a chance to hang on, but he can expect a serious challenge.

NY-23      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	With the appointment of Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) as Secretary of the Army, a special election will be held here. whoever wins it will have to fight hard to hold the district as it is very closely split. The Democrat in the special election is lawyer Bill Owens. The Republican is state assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. But Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman might be a spoiler in the special election.

NY-24      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Arcuri (D)	(R)	Former prosecutor Mike Arcuri won his second term in 2008 in this slightly Republican district by a mere 2 points, making him a likely Republican target in 2010.

NY-29      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Eric Massa (D)	(R)	New York is a blue state, but upstate districts like this one are hard on Democrats. Eric Massa is a Navy veteran and former Pentagon aide, so that helps, but the Republicans will be after him hammer and tongs in 2010 since he got only 51% of the vote in 2008. Corning mayor Tom Reed (R) is a likely opponent.

OH-01      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Driehaus (D)	Steve Chabot (R)	This was a close race in 2008, with Driehaus knocking off seven-term congressman Steve Chabot by 2 points. It will be hotly contested in 2010. In fact, Chabot has already announced he wants his old job back. Without Barack Obama on the ballot in 2010 to raise turnout in a district more than a quarter black, Driehaus may have a harder time, but now he is the incumbent, which will help a lot.

OH-15      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mary-Jo Kilroy (D)	(R)	This was an open seat vacated by Rep. Deborah Pryce. It was a very close race that took weeks to count. Ultimately, Mary Jo Kilroy won on her second try, defeating state senator Steve Stivers by 0.8%. The Republicans want it back and Stivers is their man again. One problem Kilroy will have is that she won on the strength of the vote from the immense Ohio State University in 2008. Students are notoriusly flakey voters and if they go party instead of voting on election day 2010, Stivers could win this time.

OH-18      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Zack Space (D)	(R)	OH-18 is a decidedly (R+7) Republican district. The seat was formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resigned in disgrace, which gave Zack Space an easy shot in 2006. The Democratic wave of 2008 made him a sophomore. Now he is on his end. In his favor, though (besides incumbency), is a divided opposition. State senator Bob Gibbs, 2008 candidate Fred Dailey, magistrate Jeanne Moll, and businessman Patrick Carlisle are all battling it out for the Republican nomination.

PA-03      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kathy Dahlkemper (D)	(R)	Kathy Dahlkemper knocked off a seven-term Republican congressman, Phil English, on her first run for public office, and in a slightly Republican district to boot. That says something about her campaigning skills. Nevertheless, the Republicans will try mightily get get back "their" seat. Businessmen John Onorato and Paul Huber are in as in narcotics agent Elaine Surma with more to come in all likelihood.

PA-06      PVI: D+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	With the incumbent, Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA), running for governor, the Democrats have a good shot at this open seat in a somewhat Democratic district. Physician Manan Trivedi and journalist Doug Pike (son of former congressman Otis Pike) will slug it out for the Democratic nomination. U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, Businessman Steve Welch, state representative Curt Schroder, and Chester County official Ryan Costello will battle for the Republican nod. Obama got 56% of the vote here in 2008 so it will be an uphill climb for whoever wins the Republican primary.

PA-07      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	Pat Meehan (R)	When Joe Sestak decided to challenge Arlen Specter in a senatorial primary, he left behind an open seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. Two state representatives, Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali, are contending for the Democratic nomination. The Republican nomination will almost certainly go to former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan.

PA-11      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Paul Kanjorski (D)	(R)	Many people thought this 12-term congressman was a goner in 2008, but he managed to hang on. But the Republicans smelled victory and will come after him hammer and tongs in 2010.

VA-02      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Glenn Nye (D)	(R)	Glenn Nye got 52% of the vote in an R+5 district, which immediately makes him an NRCC target for 2010. So far it is not clear who the Republican challenger will be. The previous incumbent, Thelma Drake is not running, but half a dozen other Republicans are, which could lead to an expensive primary.

VA-05      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Perriello (D)	(R)	Republican incumbent Virgil Goode should have won this one easily, but he put his foot in his mouth and went down to defeat by about 750 votes. This district includes liberal Charlottesville, but also conservative areas outside Charlottesville. The state as a whole is trending Democratic, but this one is likely to be close in 2010 if the Republicans can find a strong candidate. The candidate will be chosen at a state convention, thus avoiding a nasty primary. At the moment, state senator Robert Hurt looks like the most likely candidate.

WA-03      PVI: D+0

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	This is one of the most evenly split districts in the country and the recent announcement by Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) that he will not run for reelection has started a nomination race in both parties. Republicans expected to enter the race include state representative Jaime Herrera and several others. Possible Democrats are state senator Craig Pridemore and state representative Brendan Williams.

WA-08      PVI: D+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Reichert (R)	(D)	Dave Reichert eked out a win against former Microsoft manager and Internet darling Darcy Burner for the second time in a row. Burner hasn't said whether she's going to make a third run, but Reichert is certainly vulnerable in this suburban Seattle district.