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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

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strong Dem Strong Dem (42)
weak Dem Weak Dem (5)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
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Sep. 27 New polls: NE PA VT RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

News from the Votemaster

We have three Senate polls today, all good news for the Democrats although two were expected. In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University has state treasurer Bob Casey out ahead of incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum 51% to 39%. That pretty much makes Santorum the most endangered incumbent in the country. He has been behind all year and it will take a small miracle to save him.

The two no-news polls are Bernie Sanders 64% to 32% lead over Rich Tarrant in Vermont and incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson's 55% to 32% lead over businessman Pete Ricketts in Nebraska.

Over in the House we have a real surprise, though. In CO-07, a real swing district, the swing has gone very far out for Democrat Ed Perlmutter, who leads Republican Rick O'Donell by a whopping 54% to 37%. What happened? Perlmutter dug up a statement by O'Donnell that Social Security should be abolished and is trying to make sure that everybody in Adams County knows it. O'Donnell meanwhile is saying he didn't mean it, but the voters apparently don't believe him.

On the other hand, FL-09 is good news for the Republicans. Gus Bilirakis, son of 12-term congressman Mike Bilirakis wants to keep the badly gerrymandered district north of Clearwater in the family. He is ahead of of Phyllis Busansky 61% to 32%.

The VT-AL House seat is surprisingly close for this very liberal state Democrat Peter Welch is only leading Republican Martha Rainville 52% to 43%. Bernie Sanders always won by much bigger margins than that.

I corrected a couple of errors in the House data base yesterday. in AR and LA. Our best prediction now is that the Republicans will hold the House 219 to 216, but don't take this too seriously. There are many close and volatile races going on, But if control of the House is by 2-3 seats, I can assure you there will be legal challenges in dozens of districts, especially when the voting equipment and ballots are so bad in so many states. It will Florida all over the place.

I will be traveling for the next two weeks. I expect to be able to do an update every day, but the time might be erratic and some polls released late in the day might not make it the next day.

Projected New House*:     216 Democrats     219 Republicans
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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