Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     49 Republicans     1 tie

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (44) Weak Dem (4) Barely Dem (2) Exactly tied (1) Barely GOP (1) Weak GOP (0) Strong GOP (48) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Oct. 19	New polls:	AZ MD ME MT
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

If you are new to the site, welcome. Mousing over a state gives the latest polls and clicking on a state gives a graph of all the independent polls for that state. See the "Map algorithm explained" link for the formulas used. Please click on the 18 links with icons below the map. They contain a wealth of information, including descriptions of all 33 Senate races and the 50 most competitive House races (with candidates' photos, home pages, Wikipedia entries, and more), the complete polling data, ratings of the senators, historical election trends, the all-time greatest senators, the money race, and a great deal more.

By clicking on the "Previous report" link to the right of the map, you can go back to previous pages. While the polls are old, much of the analysis is still valid (yesterday: Liddy Dole vs. Chuck Schumer, Tuesday: low-down on the 2008 Senate races, etc.)

Senate Polls

Four new Senate polls today, the most surprising one is in Maryland, where Rep. Ben Cardin (D) and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) are deadlocked 46% to 46%. This result is surprising because three competing polls released in October have shown Cardin with leads of 7%, 8%, and 15%, respectively, and he has led all year. This poll may just be a statistical outlier. Let's wait for the next one before questioning this race.

The other Senate polls confirm what we already know: incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) leads businessman Jim Pederson (D) 51% to 42% in Arizona, incumbent Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will defeat her Democratic challenger Jean Bright (D) in a landslide that may even dwarf Hillary's in New York, and state Senate president Jon Tester (D) now has an 11% lead over incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT). out in the Big Sky Country. As usual, incumbents are marked with asterisks.

House Polls

Over in the House, we have some unbelievable polls from RT Strategies/CD. In IL-08, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) has a lead of 3% as expected, but in IL-10, Mark Kirk (R) is leading Dan Seals (D) by only 2%. In 2004, the Republicans took this district by 28%.

Now over to New York, where some of the Foley action is taking place (Rep. Tom Reynolds in NY-26 knew about Foley a year ago and all he did was tell Speaker Hastert). In NY-19, John Hall (D) leads incumbent Sue Kelly (R) by 9%. She won her race by 34% in 2004. In NY-20, Kirsten Gillibrand (D) leads incumbent John Sweeney (R) by 13%. He won his race by 32% in 2004. In NY-25, Dan Maffei (D) is leading incumbent James Walsh by 8%. Walsh was unopposed in 2004. Finally, in NY-29, Eric Massa (D) is leading incumbent Randy Kuhl by 12%. Kuhl won by 10% in 2004. If these numbers hold, New York Republicans will be wiped off the map. Democrats: Don't break out the champagne yet. Republicans: Don't cry in your beer yet. These results are so far from the conventional wisdom that I want to see more polls from other pollsters in these districts before I really believe them.

That said, the LA Times has a story today about how the national Republicans are pouring a massive effort into ID-01, to save a district in which they got 68% of the vote in 2004. While you should take the RT Strategies polls in NY with a grain (or better yet, a metric ton) of salt, when the GOP has to send the big guns to Idaho to defend a lone congressional candidate, that says something.

Also, the Wall Street Journal, not generally known as a hotbed of liberalism, published a poll today saying the only 16% of the people approve of Congress and 75% disapprove. Such polls are not good news for incumbents.

Politics

The NY Times reports widespread problems with voting machines, especially training elderly poll workers to manage them. But even with adequate worker training, the real problem is that they can be hacked, as numerous studies (e.g., Princeton's ) have shown. Do we really want 50 court cases resolving election disputes? The solution doesn't require rocket science, it merely requires the voting machine to print out a voter-readable ticket that is then deposited in a sealed ballot box in case a recount is needed. ATM machines print receipts. It is not hard to do.

Normally we don't track the 36 gubernatorial races, but many people have requested it so for this one time, here are the latest polls in each of the gubernatorial races. At present, Democrats lead in 19, Republicans in 17. The 14 states not holding a gubernatorial election this year break down as 8 Democrats and 6 Republicans, so if these results hold, the Democrats will control 27 state houses and the Republicans 23. Currently there are 22 Democratic governors and 28 Republican governors.

Projected New House*:     229 Democrats     202 Republicans     4 Ties

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