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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     49 Republicans     1 tie

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (4)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (0)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 07 New polls: MD MN MO NJ RI TN VA RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

News from the Votemaster

Today we have something a bit unusual: a batch of Gallup polls. Gallup doesn't do much state polling, but once in a while they are commissioned to run some state polls. Here are the results:

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 01 5 54 39   Gallup
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 01 5 48 45   Gallup
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean Oct 01 5 46 43   Gallup
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Oct 01 5 50 39   Gallup
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Oct 01 5 50 45   Gallup
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 01 5 45 48   Gallup

All these polls are consistent with the recent ones from SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and the others. They confirm that the Democrats are probably not going to lose a single seat and may pick up Republican seats in MO, RI, and TN, as well as some states Gallup didn't poll: MT, OH. and PA. If they get all six, the Democrats will control the Senate. When the dust settles on the Foley matter, the Democrats may capture the House as well. But as Harold MacMillan once said: "In politics, a week is a long time."

We also have one Rasmussen poll. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar (D) is way ahead of Mark Kennedy (R), 56% to 40%.

No new House polls today.

Super Guru Charlie Cook has changed his predictions on 14 House races, making all of them better for the Democrats. See Political Wire for the list.

Projected New House*:     218 Democrats     216 Republicans     1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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