Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 49 Republicans 2 ties

	Strong Dem (44)
	Weak Dem (4)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (2)
	Barely GOP (0)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Nov. 03	New polls:	CT MD MN MO MT NJ OH PA RI TN VA WA
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Senate Polls

We have 19 new Senate polls today listed below, including 10 from Zogby. The strangest one is Zogby's poll in Tennessee, which has Bob Corker ahead of Harold Ford 53% to 43%. This seems way out of line with previous polls that showed a neck-and-neck race.

Missouri and Virginia are still too close to call, as they have been for weeks now. Claire McCaskill is ahead by 3% in Missouri and Jim Webb is ahead by 1% in Virginia, both well inside the margin or error.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Conn.	Ned Lamont	Alan Schlesinger	Oct 30	7	37%	8%	49%	Zogby
Maryland	Ben Cardin	Michael Steele	Nov 01	1	50%	45%		Rasmussen
Maryland	Ben Cardin	Michael Steele	Oct 30	3	49%	43%		Potomac Inc.
Maryland	Ben Cardin	Michael Steele	Oct 30	7	49%	44%		Zogby
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Mark Kennedy	Oct 27	5	50%	40%		Mason-Dixon
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 30	7	46%	43%		Zogby
Montana	Jon Tester	Conrad Burns*	Nov 01	1	50%	46%		Rasmussen
Montana	Jon Tester	Conrad Burns*	Oct 30	7	47%	46%		Zogby
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Nov 01	1	48%	43%		Rasmussen
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 31	3	46%	42%		Rutgers-Eagleton
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 31	7	45%	36%		FDU
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 30	7	49%	37%		Zogby
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 30	7	49%	42%		Zogby
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 29	10	51%	44%		Opinion Consult.
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 30	7	48%	40%		Zogby
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse	Lincoln Chafee*	Oct 30	7	53%	39%		Zogby
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 30	7	43%	53%		Zogby
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 30	7	45%	44%		Zogby
Washington	Maria Cantwell*	Mike McGavick	Oct 31	7	53%	41%		U. of Washington

House Polls

We also have eight new House polls. The most surprising ones are in NH-02, where Paul Hodes (D) may pull off an upset victory over incumbent Charlie Bass (R-NH), and KY-03 , where publisher John Yarmuth (D) may also pull off an upset over incumbent Anne Northup (R). But all in all, the Democrats seem to be heading towards a massive victory in the House, possibly picking up 35 seats, something nobody thought possible even a month ago.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
CA-26	Cynthia Matthews	David Dreier*	Nov 01	3	35%	54%		SurveyUSA
IA-03	Leonard Boswell*	Jeff Lamberti	Oct 31	2	53%	41%		Research 2000
KY-03	John Yarmuth	Anne Northup*	Nov 01	3	52%	44%		SurveyUSA
NH-01	Carol Shea-Porter	Jeb Bradley*	Nov 01	4	42%	47%		U. of New Hampshire
NH-02	Paul Hodes	Charlie Bass*	Nov 01	4	45%	37%		U. of New Hampshire
NV-02	Jill Derby	Dean Heller	Oct 30	5	39%	47%		Mason-Dixon
NV-03	Tessa Hafen	Jon Porter*	Oct 30	5	39%	46%		Mason-Dixon
VA-05	Al Weed	Virgil Goode*	Nov 01	3	35%	61%		SurveyUSA

Politics

The final Rothenberg Report prior to the election is out. Rothenberg is predicting a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats in the House, a victory that would rival the Republican tidal wave of 1994. Our best guess is a gain of 38 seats, well within Rothenberg's range. Rothenberg also expects the Democrats to pick up six seats in the Senate and gain control.

Rep. Don Sherwood of PA-10, whose idea of family values is choking his long-term mistress, a Peruvian immigrant 35 years his junior, has agreed to pay her $500,000 to buy her silence, according to an AP report.

In other family-values related news, Ted Haggard, the president of the National Association of Evangelicals, resigned yesterday after a male prostitute said that Haggard had paid him for sex for three years. Haggard has issued the usual pro forma denial, but church officials say the story is basically true. This news item is related to the election because Haggard has campaigned very hard for a proposition on the ballot in Colorado (where Haggard lives) that would ban gay marriages in the state. This seemingly endless series of scandals (Sherwood choking his mistress, Haggard hiring a gay prostitute, Sweeney beating his wife, Foley soliciting teenage boys, etc.) could cause some "family values" voters to stay home Tuesday.

Projected New House*: 241 Democrats 193 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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