Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 50 Republicans

	Strong Dem (44)
	Weak Dem (3)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (2)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Nov. 01	New polls:	AZ CA CT FL MD MI MN MO NJ NM NV NY OH PA TN TX VA WA WI
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Virginia

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News from the Votemaster

To the 50,000 new readers we have picked up this week, welcome! Be sure to check out the many icons under the map. They contain a wealth of information about this election, past elections, and political data in general.

Yesterday was trick or treat: trick for the Republicans, treat for the Democrats. If the current results hold for another week (the chance of which is roughly zero), the Democrats will pick up 36 seats in the House and take control of that chamber. The Senate will split 50-50, which means that if Vice President Dick Cheney agrees to hang around the Senate to break ties, the Republicans will keep control. Since the Senate is full of lawyers, he can even continue with his hobby of shooting them while breaking ties. But see the comments below.

Poll of the Day

Senate Polls

We have four different polls in New Jersey today, and all of them have incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ahead 5-7%. The NRSC is spending $5 million this week to try to defeat him, but so far, the effect hasn't kicked in. Part of the problem is that as luck would have it, attacking Menendez requires advertising in the most expensive media market in the country (NYC) as well as the fourth most expensive (Philadelphia). They would have preferred, say, Nebraska, but unfortunately, the only Democratic incumbent who is vulnerable is Menendez, not Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). At this point, I would say the chance of knocking off Menendez is pretty small, despite his well-publicized problems.

Another critical Senate race with four polls today is Missouri, but here it is the Republican incumbent, Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), who is playing defense. The polls range from Talent leading Democrat Claire McCaskill by 2% to his trailing her by 3%. All the analysts expect this race to be the closest one in the Senate.

Another race expected to be very close is Virginia. We have three new polls there, and all three favor Jim Webb (D) over incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Webb's leads are in the 2-4% range, well within the margin of error. Allen might yet hang onto his job, but he can forget about running for President in 2008.

In Tennessee, we have anoher very close race, also with three new polls. All of them favor former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) over Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, by margins of 1-8%.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Arizona	Jim Pederson	Jon Kyl*	Oct 27	5	44%	52%		Zogby
California	Dianne Feinstein*	Dick Mountjoy	Oct 27	9	57%	39%		Polimetrix
Conn.	Ned Lamont	Alan Schlesinger	Oct 28	1	40%	9%	48%	Rasmussen
Conn.	Ned Lamont	Alan Schlesinger	Oct 27	5	43%	6%	47%	Zogby
Florida	Bill Nelson*	Katherine Harris	Oct 27	5	54%	40%		Zogby
Maryland	Ben Cardin	Michael Steele	Oct 27	5	53%	44%		Zogby
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow*	Mike Bouchard	Oct 30	5	52%	38%		EPIC-MRA
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow*	Mike Bouchard	Oct 27	5	49%	42%		Zogby
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Mark Kennedy	Oct 27	5	51%	43%		Zogby
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Mark Kennedy	Oct 27	13	56%	31%		St. Cloud U.
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 30	1	48%	47%		Rasmussen
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 29	2	49%	46%		SurveyUSA
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 29	4	49%	49%		Opinion Research
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 27	5	47%	49%		Zogby
Nevada	Jack Carter	John Ensign*	Oct 27	5	37%	58%		Zogby
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 28	1	49%	44%		Rasmussen
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 29	4	51%	44%		Opinion Research
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 29	7	49%	44%		Quinnipiac U.
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 27	5	49%	43%		Zogby
New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman*	Allen McCullogh	Oct 27	5	58%	38%		Zogby
New York	Hillary Clinton*	John Spencer	Oct 27	5	57%	33%		Zogby
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 29	4	54%	43%		Opinion Research
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 27	5	49%	47%		Zogby
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 28	1	55%	42%		Rasmussen
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 27	5	53%	44%		Zogby
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 30	1	47%	49%		Rasmussen
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 29	4	44%	52%		Opinion Research
Tennessee	Harold Ford	Bob Corker	Oct 27	5	48%	49%		Zogby
Texas	Barbara Radnofsky	Kay Hutchison*	Oct 27	5	36%	55%		Zogby
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 29	1	48%	46%		Rasmussen
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 29	4	50%	46%		Opinion Research
Virginia	Jim Webb	George Allen*	Oct 27	5	51%	47%		Zogby
Washington	Maria Cantwell*	Mike McGavick	Oct 30	4	51%	43%		SurveyUSA
Washington	Maria Cantwell*	Mike McGavick	Oct 27	5	50%	46%		Zogby
Wisconsin	Herb Kohl*	Robert Lorge	Oct 27	5	47%	38%		Zogby
Wisconsin	Herb Kohl*	Robert Lorge	Oct 26	9	73%	16%		U. of Wisconsin

House Polls

Over in the House, we have 40 new polls, most of them from RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. The polls show Democrats gaining strongly, so strongly that I am somewhat skeptical of them. On the other hand, RT Strategies is run by Thomas Riehle, a long-time Democratic pollster and Lance Tarrance, a long-time Republican pollster. It seems unlikely that Tarrance would allow Riehle to cook the books, so I guess the polls have to be taken at face value. They have produced a nice interactive map showing their results.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
AR-02	Vic Snyder*	Andy Mayberry	Oct 30	4	60%	39%		SurveyUSA
AZ-01	Ellen Simon	Rick Renzi*	Oct 26	3	38%	41%		RT Strategies
CA-04	Charles Brown	John Doolittle*	Oct 26	3	39%	39%		RT Strategies
CA-11	Jerry McNerney	Richard Pombo*	Oct 26	3	48%	46%		RT Strategies
CO-03	John Salazar*	Scott Tipton	Oct 29	3	57%	38%		SurveyUSA
CO-04	Angie Paccione	Marilyn Musgrave*	Oct 26	3	48%	45%		RT Strategies
CO-05	Jay Fawcett	Doug Lamborn	Oct 27	4	40%	47%		Mason-Dixon
CO-07	Ed Perlmutter	Rick O'Donnell	Oct 26	3	51%	46%		RT Strategies
CT-02	Joe Courtney	Robert Simmons*	Oct 30	3	48%	47%		Research 2000
CT-02	Joe Courtney	Robert Simmons*	Oct 26	3	51%	45%		RT Strategies
CT-04	Diane Farrell	Christopher Shays*	Oct 26	3	43%	52%		RT Strategies
CT-05	Chris Murphy	Nancy Johnson*	Oct 29	3	46%	43%		Research 2000
CT-05	Chris Murphy	Nancy Johnson*	Oct 26	3	51%	43%		RT Strategies
FL-13	Christine Jennings	Vern Buchanan	Oct 26	3	49%	47%		RT Strategies
FL-22	Ron Klein	Clay Shaw*	Oct 26	3	50%	48%		RT Strategies
GA-12	John Barrow*	Max Burns	Oct 26	1	42%	39%		Insider Advantage
IA-02	Dave Loebsack	Jim Leach*	Oct 26	3	48%	50%		RT Strategies
IL-08	Melissa Bean*	Dave McSweeney	Oct 26	3	50%	45%		RT Strategies
IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	John Hostettler*	Oct 26	3	53%	43%		RT Strategies
IN-09	Baron Hill	Mike Sodrel*	Oct 26	3	51%	43%		RT Strategies
KY-04	Ken Lucas	Geoff Davis*	Oct 26	3	50%	46%		RT Strategies
MN-01	Tim Walz	Gil Gutknecht*	Oct 26	3	47%	50%		RT Strategies
NC-08	Larry Kissell	Robin Hayes*	Oct 26	3	48%	44%		RT Strategies
NH-02	Paul Hodes	Charlie Bass*	Oct 26	3	50%	47%		RT Strategies
NV-03	Tessa Hafen	Jon Porter*	Oct 26	3	44%	51%		RT Strategies
NY-03	Dave Mejias	Peter King*	Oct 26	3	44%	51%		RT Strategies
NY-19	John Hall	Sue Kelly*	Oct 26	3	49%	47%		RT Strategies
NY-25	Dan Maffei	James Walsh*	Oct 26	3	53%	44%		RT Strategies
NY-29	Eric Massa	Randy Kuhl*	Oct 26	3	53%	42%		RT Strategies
OH-01	John Cranley	Steve Chabot*	Oct 26	3	48%	46%		RT Strategies
OH-02	Victoria Wulsin	Jean Schmidt*	Oct 26	3	46%	51%		RT Strategies
OH-12	Robert Shamansky	Pat Tiberi*	Oct 26	3	46%	51%		RT Strategies
PA-06	Lois Murphy	Jim Gerlach*	Oct 26	3	51%	46%		RT Strategies
PA-08	Patrick Murphy	Mike Fitzpatrick*	Oct 26	3	50%	47%		RT Strategies
PA-08	Patrick Murphy	Mike Fitzpatrick*	Oct 24	6	40%	46%		Muhlenberg Coll.
VA-02	Phil Kellam	Thelma Drake*	Oct 26	3	50%	45%		RT Strategies
WA-05	Peter Goldmark	Cathy McMorris*	Oct 26	3	46%	51%		RT Strategies
WA-08	Darcy Burner	Dave Reichert*	Oct 30	3	45%	51%		SurveyUSA
WA-08	Darcy Burner	Dave Reichert*	Oct 26	3	49%	47%		RT Strategies
WI-08	Steve Kagen	John Gard	Oct 26	3	51%	45%		RT Strategies

Politics

The NY Daily News has a story about congressman John Sweeney knocking his wife around so much that she called 911 (thanks to Political Wire for finding this). With Sweeney ( NY-20 ) beating his wife, Don Sherwood ( PA-10 ) choking his mistresss, and Mark Foley (formerly of FL-16 ) chasing teenage boys, the Republican claim of supporting family values raises questions of exactly what those values are.

Francis X. Cline has an interesting column in the NYT about congressional hypocrisy today.

Projected New House*: 239 Democrats 195 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 VA-02 WI-08

GOP pickups:

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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