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strong Dem Strong Dem (44)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (2)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
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Nov. 01 New polls: AZ CA CT FL MD MI MN MO NJ NM NV NY OH PA TN TX VA WA WI RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Virginia


News from the Votemaster

To the 50,000 new readers we have picked up this week, welcome! Be sure to check out the many icons under the map. They contain a wealth of information about this election, past elections, and political data in general.

Yesterday was trick or treat: trick for the Republicans, treat for the Democrats. If the current results hold for another week (the chance of which is roughly zero), the Democrats will pick up 36 seats in the House and take control of that chamber. The Senate will split 50-50, which means that if Vice President Dick Cheney agrees to hang around the Senate to break ties, the Republicans will keep control. Since the Senate is full of lawyers, he can even continue with his hobby of shooting them while breaking ties. But see the comments below.

Poll of the Day

What is the most important issue for you?
Terrorism Iraq Immigration Taxes Economy Help Bush Hurt Bush Other   

Senate Polls

We have four different polls in New Jersey today, and all of them have incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ahead 5-7%. The NRSC is spending $5 million this week to try to defeat him, but so far, the effect hasn't kicked in. Part of the problem is that as luck would have it, attacking Menendez requires advertising in the most expensive media market in the country (NYC) as well as the fourth most expensive (Philadelphia). They would have preferred, say, Nebraska, but unfortunately, the only Democratic incumbent who is vulnerable is Menendez, not Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). At this point, I would say the chance of knocking off Menendez is pretty small, despite his well-publicized problems.

Another critical Senate race with four polls today is Missouri, but here it is the Republican incumbent, Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), who is playing defense. The polls range from Talent leading Democrat Claire McCaskill by 2% to his trailing her by 3%. All the analysts expect this race to be the closest one in the Senate.

Another race expected to be very close is Virginia. We have three new polls there, and all three favor Jim Webb (D) over incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Webb's leads are in the 2-4% range, well within the margin of error. Allen might yet hang onto his job, but he can forget about running for President in 2008.

In Tennessee, we have anoher very close race, also with three new polls. All of them favor former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) over Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, by margins of 1-8%.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Oct 27 5 44% 52%   Zogby
California Dianne Feinstein* Dick Mountjoy Oct 27 9 57% 39%   Polimetrix
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Oct 28 1 40% 9% 48% Rasmussen
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Oct 27 5 43% 6% 47% Zogby
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Oct 27 5 54% 40%   Zogby
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 27 5 53% 44%   Zogby
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Oct 30 5 52% 38%   EPIC-MRA
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Oct 27 5 49% 42%   Zogby
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Oct 27 5 51% 43%   Zogby
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Oct 27 13 56% 31%   St. Cloud U.
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 30 1 48% 47%   Rasmussen
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 29 2 49% 46%   SurveyUSA
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 29 4 49% 49%   Opinion Research
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 27 5 47% 49%   Zogby
Nevada Jack Carter John Ensign* Oct 27 5 37% 58%   Zogby
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 28 1 49% 44%   Rasmussen
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 29 4 51% 44%   Opinion Research
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 29 7 49% 44%   Quinnipiac U.
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 27 5 49% 43%   Zogby
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman* Allen McCullogh Oct 27 5 58% 38%   Zogby
New York Hillary Clinton* John Spencer Oct 27 5 57% 33%   Zogby
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 29 4 54% 43%   Opinion Research
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 27 5 49% 47%   Zogby
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Oct 28 1 55% 42%   Rasmussen
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Oct 27 5 53% 44%   Zogby
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Oct 30 1 47% 49%   Rasmussen
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Oct 29 4 44% 52%   Opinion Research
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Oct 27 5 48% 49%   Zogby
Texas Barbara Radnofsky Kay Hutchison* Oct 27 5 36% 55%   Zogby
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 29 1 48% 46%   Rasmussen
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 29 4 50% 46%   Opinion Research
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 27 5 51% 47%   Zogby
Washington Maria Cantwell* Mike McGavick Oct 30 4 51% 43%   SurveyUSA
Washington Maria Cantwell* Mike McGavick Oct 27 5 50% 46%   Zogby
Wisconsin Herb Kohl* Robert Lorge Oct 27 5 47% 38%   Zogby
Wisconsin Herb Kohl* Robert Lorge Oct 26 9 73% 16%   U. of Wisconsin


House Polls

Over in the House, we have 40 new polls, most of them from RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. The polls show Democrats gaining strongly, so strongly that I am somewhat skeptical of them. On the other hand, RT Strategies is run by Thomas Riehle, a long-time Democratic pollster and Lance Tarrance, a long-time Republican pollster. It seems unlikely that Tarrance would allow Riehle to cook the books, so I guess the polls have to be taken at face value. They have produced a nice interactive map showing their results.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
AR-02 Vic Snyder* Andy Mayberry Oct 30 4 60% 39%   SurveyUSA
AZ-01 Ellen Simon Rick Renzi* Oct 26 3 38% 41%   RT Strategies
CA-04 Charles Brown John Doolittle* Oct 26 3 39% 39%   RT Strategies
CA-11 Jerry McNerney Richard Pombo* Oct 26 3 48% 46%   RT Strategies
CO-03 John Salazar* Scott Tipton Oct 29 3 57% 38%   SurveyUSA
CO-04 Angie Paccione Marilyn Musgrave* Oct 26 3 48% 45%   RT Strategies
CO-05 Jay Fawcett Doug Lamborn Oct 27 4 40% 47%   Mason-Dixon
CO-07 Ed Perlmutter Rick O'Donnell Oct 26 3 51% 46%   RT Strategies
CT-02 Joe Courtney Robert Simmons* Oct 30 3 48% 47%   Research 2000
CT-02 Joe Courtney Robert Simmons* Oct 26 3 51% 45%   RT Strategies
CT-04 Diane Farrell Christopher Shays* Oct 26 3 43% 52%   RT Strategies
CT-05 Chris Murphy Nancy Johnson* Oct 29 3 46% 43%   Research 2000
CT-05 Chris Murphy Nancy Johnson* Oct 26 3 51% 43%   RT Strategies
FL-13 Christine Jennings Vern Buchanan Oct 26 3 49% 47%   RT Strategies
FL-22 Ron Klein Clay Shaw* Oct 26 3 50% 48%   RT Strategies
GA-12 John Barrow* Max Burns Oct 26 1 42% 39%   Insider Advantage
IA-02 Dave Loebsack Jim Leach* Oct 26 3 48% 50%   RT Strategies
IL-08 Melissa Bean* Dave McSweeney Oct 26 3 50% 45%   RT Strategies
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth John Hostettler* Oct 26 3 53% 43%   RT Strategies
IN-09 Baron Hill Mike Sodrel* Oct 26 3 51% 43%   RT Strategies
KY-04 Ken Lucas Geoff Davis* Oct 26 3 50% 46%   RT Strategies
MN-01 Tim Walz Gil Gutknecht* Oct 26 3 47% 50%   RT Strategies
NC-08 Larry Kissell Robin Hayes* Oct 26 3 48% 44%   RT Strategies
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Oct 26 3 50% 47%   RT Strategies
NV-03 Tessa Hafen Jon Porter* Oct 26 3 44% 51%   RT Strategies
NY-03 Dave Mejias Peter King* Oct 26 3 44% 51%   RT Strategies
NY-19 John Hall Sue Kelly* Oct 26 3 49% 47%   RT Strategies
NY-25 Dan Maffei James Walsh* Oct 26 3 53% 44%   RT Strategies
NY-29 Eric Massa Randy Kuhl* Oct 26 3 53% 42%   RT Strategies
OH-01 John Cranley Steve Chabot* Oct 26 3 48% 46%   RT Strategies
OH-02 Victoria Wulsin Jean Schmidt* Oct 26 3 46% 51%   RT Strategies
OH-12 Robert Shamansky Pat Tiberi* Oct 26 3 46% 51%   RT Strategies
PA-06 Lois Murphy Jim Gerlach* Oct 26 3 51% 46%   RT Strategies
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick* Oct 26 3 50% 47%   RT Strategies
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick* Oct 24 6 40% 46%   Muhlenberg Coll.
VA-02 Phil Kellam Thelma Drake* Oct 26 3 50% 45%   RT Strategies
WA-05 Peter Goldmark Cathy McMorris* Oct 26 3 46% 51%   RT Strategies
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Oct 30 3 45% 51%   SurveyUSA
WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Oct 26 3 49% 47%   RT Strategies
WI-08 Steve Kagen John Gard Oct 26 3 51% 45%   RT Strategies


Politics

The NY Daily News has a story about congressman John Sweeney knocking his wife around so much that she called 911 (thanks to Political Wire for finding this). With Sweeney ( NY-20 ) beating his wife, Don Sherwood ( PA-10 ) choking his mistresss, and Mark Foley (formerly of FL-16 ) chasing teenage boys, the Republican claim of supporting family values raises questions of exactly what those values are.

Francis X. Cline has an interesting column in the NYT about congressional hypocrisy today.


Projected New House*:     239 Democrats     195 Republicans     1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 VA-02 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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