State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Everett Wess 32% Barry Moore 47% Barry Moore +15 Jul 11
Alaska Mary Peltola 50% Dan Sullivan* 45% Mary Peltola +5 Sep 12
Arkansas Hallie Shoffner 41% Tom Cotton* 48% Tom Cotton* +7 Aug 18
Colorado John Hickenlooper* 53% Mark Baiseley 44% John Hickenlooper* +9 2020 Election
Delaware Chris Coons* 60% Michael Katz 38% Chris Coons* +22 2020 Election
Florida Angie Nixon 43% Ashley Moody* 48% Ashley Moody* +5 Sep 21
Georgia Jon Ossoff* 51% Mike Collins 41% Jon Ossoff* +10 Sep 18
Idaho No Candidate 33% Jim Risch* 62% Jim Risch* +29 2020 Election
Illinois Juliana Stratton 54% Don Tracy 40% Juliana Stratton +14 2020 Election
Iowa Josh Turek 50% Ashley Hinson 42% Josh Turek +8 Sep 20
Kansas Adam Hamilton 50% Roger Marshall 48% Adam Hamilton +2 Sep 24
Kentucky Charles Booker 38% Andy Barr 58% Andy Barr +20 2020 Election
Louisiana Jamie Davis 37% Julia Letlow 41% Julia Letlow +4 Jul 22
Maine Troy Jackson 49% Susan Collins* 48% Troy Jackson +1 Sep 21
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 54% John Deaton 29% Ed Markey* +25 Sep 21
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 47% Mike Rogers 43% Abdul El-Sayed +4 Sep 21
Minnesota Peggy Flanagan 42% Michele Tafoya 42% Tied Sep 14
Mississippi Scott Colom 44% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 47% Cindy Hyde-Smith* +3 Apr 12
Montana Alani Bankhead 16% Kurt Alme 38% Kurt Alme +22 Sep 07
Nebraska No Democrat 0% Pete Ricketts* 47% Pete Ricketts* +47 Sep 16
New Hampshire Chris Pappas 50% John Sununu 44% Chris Pappas +6 Sep 21
New Jersey Cory Booker* 61% Justin Murphy 38% Cory Booker* +23 2020 Election
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan* 53% Larry Marker 38% Ben Ray Lujan* +15 Aug 28
North Carolina Roy Cooper 53% Michael Whatley 42% Roy Cooper +11 Sep 20
Ohio Sherrod Brown 51% Jon Husted* 43% Sherrod Brown +8 Sep 27
Oklahoma Jasmine Thomas 33% Kevin Hern 63% Kevin Hern +30 2020 Election
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 58% David Smith 39% Jeff Merkley* +19 2020 Election
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 53% Raymond McKay 33% Jack Reed* +20 Sep 21
South Carolina Annie Andrews 38% Darline Graham 51% Darline Graham +13 Aug 28
South Dakota No Democrat 18% Mike Rounds* 43% Mike Rounds* +25 May 30
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 35% Bill Hagerty 62% Bill Hagerty +27 2020 Election
Texas James Talarico 49% Ken Paxton 45% James Talarico +4 Sep 22
Virginia Mark Warner* 55% Bert Mizusawa 29% Mark Warner* +26 May 05
West Virginia Rachel Anderson 33% Shelley Moore Capito* 65% Shelley Moore Capito* +32 2020 Election
Wyoming James Byrd 27% Harriet Hageman 73% Harriet Hageman +46 2020 Election