State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Everett Wess 32% Barry Moore 47% Barry Moore +15 Jul 11
Alaska Mary Peltola 51% Dan Sullivan* 49% Mary Peltola +2 Aug 05
Arkansas Hallie Shoffner 35% Tom Cotton* 51% Tom Cotton* +16 Aug 18
Colorado John Hickenlooper* 53% Mark Baiseley 44% John Hickenlooper* +9 2020 Election
Delaware Chris Coons* 60% Candidate unknown 38% Chris Coons* +22 2020 Election
Florida Angie Nixon 40% Ashley Moody 50% Ashley Moody +10 Jul 17
Georgia Jon Ossoff* 52% Mike Collins 43% Jon Ossoff* +9 Jul 16
Idaho David Roth 33% Jim Risch* 62% Jim Risch* +29 2020 Election
Illinois Juliana Stratton 54% Don Tracy 40% Juliana Stratton +14 2020 Election
Iowa Josh Turek 45% Ashley Hinson 48% Ashley Hinson +3 Aug 04
Kansas Adam Hamilton 42% Roger Marshall 53% Roger Marshall +11 2020 Election
Kentucky Charles Booker 38% Andy Barr 58% Andy Barr +20 2020 Election
Louisiana Jamie Davis 37% Julia Letlow 41% Julia Letlow +4 Jul 22
Maine Troy Jackson 48% Susan Collins* 46% Troy Jackson +2 Aug 10
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 51% Candidate unknown 30% Ed Markey* +21 Aug 12
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 47% Mike Rogers 45% Abdul El-Sayed +2 Aug 17
Minnesota Peggy Flanagan 46% Michele Tafoya 41% Peggy Flanagan +5 Aug 17
Mississippi Scott Colom 44% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 47% Cindy Hyde-Smith* +3 Apr 12
Montana Alani Bankhead 22% Kurt Alme 38% Kurt Alme +16 Jul 27
Nebraska No Democrat 0% Pete Ricketts* 42% Independent +5 May 11
New Hampshire Candidate unknown 45% Candidate unknown 42% Candidate unknown +3 Jun 27
New Jersey Cory Booker* 61% Justin Murphy 38% Cory Booker* +23 2020 Election
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan* 51% Larry Marker 46% Ben Ray Lujan* +5 2020 Election
North Carolina Roy Cooper 52% Michael Whatley 39% Roy Cooper +13 Aug 10
Ohio Sherrod Brown 51% Jon Husted 45% Sherrod Brown +6 Aug 13
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 33% Kevin Hern 63% Kevin Hern +30 2020 Election
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 58% David Smith 39% Jeff Merkley* +19 2020 Election
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 52% Candidate unknown 35% Jack Reed* +17 Jun 23
South Carolina Annie Andrews 42% Darline Graham 56% Darline Graham +14 2020 Election
South Dakota Julian Beaudion 18% Mike Rounds* 43% Mike Rounds* +25 May 30
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 35% Bill Hagerty 62% Bill Hagerty +27 2020 Election
Texas James Talarico 46% Ken Paxton 47% Ken Paxton +1 Aug 09
Virginia Mark Warner* 55% Bert Mizusawa 29% Mark Warner* +26 May 05
West Virginia Rachel Anderson 33% Shelley Moore Capito* 65% Shelley Moore Capito* +32 2020 Election
Wyoming Candidate unknown 27% Cynthia Lummis 73% Cynthia Lummis +46 2020 Election