State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Everett Wess 45% Barry Moore 55% Barry Moore +10 Nov 04
Alaska Mary Peltola 48% Dan Sullivan* 48% Tied Nov 04
Arkansas Hallie Shoffner 42% Tom Cotton* 54% Tom Cotton* +12 Nov 04
Colorado John Hickenlooper* 60% Mark Baiseley 35% John Hickenlooper* +25 Nov 04
Delaware Chris Coons* 64% Michael Katz 36% Chris Coons* +28 Nov 04
Florida Angie Nixon 48% Ashley Moody* 51% Ashley Moody* +3 Nov 04
Georgia Jon Ossoff* 58% Mike Collins 41% Jon Ossoff* +17 Nov 04
Idaho No Candidate 0% Jim Risch* 56% Jim Risch* +56 Nov 04
Illinois Juliana Stratton 61% Don Tracy 37% Juliana Stratton +24 Nov 04
Iowa Josh Turek 51% Ashley Hinson 46% Josh Turek +5 Nov 04
Kansas Adam Hamilton 51% Roger Marshall 46% Adam Hamilton +5 Nov 04
Kentucky Charles Booker 43% Andy Barr 55% Andy Barr +12 Nov 04
Louisiana Jamie Davis 49% Julia Letlow 51% Julia Letlow +2 Nov 04
Maine Troy Jackson 53% Susan Collins* 47% Troy Jackson +6 Nov 04
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 63% John Deaton 32% Ed Markey* +31 Nov 04
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 53% Mike Rogers 45% Abdul El-Sayed +8 Nov 04
Minnesota Peggy Flanagan 54% Michele Tafoya 44% Peggy Flanagan +10 Nov 04
Mississippi Scott Colom 49% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 49% Tied Nov 04
Montana Alani Bankhead 14% Kurt Alme 48% Kurt Alme +34 Nov 04
Nebraska No Democrat 0% Pete Ricketts* 50% Pete Ricketts* +50 Nov 04
New Hampshire Chris Pappas 56% John Sununu 42% Chris Pappas +14 Nov 04
New Jersey Cory Booker* 62% Justin Murphy 35% Cory Booker* +27 Nov 04
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan* 63% Larry Marker 37% Ben Ray Lujan* +26 Nov 04
North Carolina Roy Cooper 59% Michael Whatley 39% Roy Cooper +20 Nov 04
Ohio Sherrod Brown 50% Jon Husted* 45% Sherrod Brown +5 Nov 04
Oklahoma Jasmine Thomas 39% Kevin Hern 57% Kevin Hern +18 Nov 04
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 58% David Smith 39% Jeff Merkley* +19 Nov 04
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 67% Raymond McKay 29% Jack Reed* +38 Nov 04
South Carolina Annie Andrews 51% Darline Graham 47% Annie Andrews +4 Nov 04
South Dakota No Democrat 0% Mike Rounds* 61% Mike Rounds* +61 Nov 04
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 43% Bill Hagerty 55% Bill Hagerty +12 Nov 04
Texas James Talarico 55% Ken Paxton 43% James Talarico +12 Nov 04
Virginia Mark Warner* 61% Bert Mizusawa 39% Mark Warner* +22 Nov 04
West Virginia Rachel Anderson 38% Shelley Moore Capito* 58% Shelley Moore Capito* +20 Nov 04
Wyoming James Byrd 35% Harriet Hageman 65% Harriet Hageman +30 Nov 04