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New polls: AK MI NC TX
Dem pickups: AK ME NC OH TX
GOP pickups: (None)

(V) is still traveling, and (Z) has something like strep throat. The rapid test for the most common kind of strep throat came back negative, but tests for the other kinds are pending.

(Z) needs one more day to rest and recover. We'll move the regular Friday post to Saturday, and then do another combined post on Sunday.

Meanwhile, we had a couple of e-mails suggesting that if there's not going to be a posting, we should fill the gap with pictures of staff canine Tuco Hashbrown Chorizo "T.H.C." Bates. You ask, we deliver:

Darcy and Tuco enjoying a treat:

A dalmatian-looking dog and Tuco eating something


Tuco indulging in his favorite hobby:

Tuco holding a white plastic bone in his front paws and chewing on it


This chew-bone is supposed to be indestructible. Not only is that not true, but its surrender to Tuco's onslaught has turned it into something vulgar. To borrow a line from Johnny Carson, we didn't even know that chew-bone was Jewish:

A pink rubber bone has had one end chewed off, such that it looks like a phallus

Note that we must give credit for the Johnny Carson line to a friend (and reader of the blog) who is themselves Jewish.


First trip to the dog park:

Rolling in the dirt


A little side-eye shortly after Tuco returned home from the vet, where he had his pocket picked:

Tuco has an Elizabethan collar on, and is glaring at the camera


A local restaurant has a painting on the wall that very clearly depicts what it will look like if (when?) Tuco turns to the dark side:

Three dogs, in suits, with angry looks on their faces

Today's Senate Polls

Michigan remains close, as both candidates have liabilities that aren't going away.

Harper Polling has been around since 2012, and it does do public policy polling. So, they're not some sort of Johnny- or Jill-come-lately firm. A lead of 15 for Cooper is a bit hard to swallow, but the fact is that the very first poll of this race (way back in July of last year) was tied 44%-44%, and Cooper has been ahead in every single one of the 30+ polls since then. Further, his lead has grown over time, such that he's now averaging something like +8%. With polling like that, and with North Carolina being one of the very most expensive states to advertise in (multiple large, non-overlapping media markets), the GOP would be wise to throw in the towel on this one and spend its money elsewhere.

Emerson tends to be a more Republican-friendly house, Siena leans a little in the Democratic direction. So, that probably explains the difference in their numbers. Nonetheless, they both have James Talarico (D) leading.

We don't see any particular reason to doubt that Mary Peltola (D) could win in Alaska. First, she's won statewide before. Second, Alaska isn't THAT red (R+6). Third, it looks to be a blue year. Fourth, everyone else on the four-person ballot is a Republican. Admittedly, one of them (the other Dan Sullivan) is probably a phony Republican. But still, if any candidate is doing to be hurt by ballot exhaustion (people only choose one candidate, and don't other to rank their other choices), it's the real Dan Sullivan. (Z)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Alaska Mary Peltola 53% Dan Sullivan* 47% Sep 08 Sep 11 Fabrizio + Anzalone
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 48% Mike Rogers 45% Sep 10 Sep 14 Washington Post
Michigan Abdul El-Sayed 48% Mike Rogers 46% Sep 12 Sep 14 Emerson Coll.
North Carolina Roy Cooper 49% Michael Whatley 34% Sep 13 Sep 15 Harper Polling
Texas James Talarico 47% Ken Paxton 46% Sep 12 Sep 14 Emerson Coll.
Texas James Talarico 49% Ken Paxton 43% Sep 08 Sep 11 Siena U.

* Denotes incumbent


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