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Mississippi Is Holding a Primary Election Tomorrow

Since we are an election-and-politics site, an election is a big deal. When there is one, we like to lead Monday's posting with it. Practically anything would be a letdown after last week, but there is still a bit of action this week on the Democrats side—in Mississippi of all place The battle is in MS-02, a D+11 largely Black district in the Mississippi delta. It includes Jackson and Natchez. Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D-MS) is running for his 18th term. Not surprisingly Thompson is no spring chicken. He is 78 in a party where many voters want generational change. He is facing attorney Evan Turnage (33) who, like Thompson, is Black. Turnage was 1 year old when Thompson was first elected to the House. Turnage has pointed out that when he was born, the district was the poorest district in the poorest state in America. And it still is. He wants to do something about that in Congress.

While Turnage is new to running for office, he is not new to politics. He worked as chief counsel for then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), where he helped write the No Kings Act, which would have stripped criminal immunity for presidents who commit crimes. Here is an article about Turnage. None of the other House races are competitive.

MS-02 isn't the only game in town, though. The resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene triggered a special election in GA-14. It will be held tomorrow, as well. The district is in the northwest corner of the state and includes the cities of Dalton and Rome. It is 70% white, 12% Black, and 12% Latino. It is mostly exurban and rural. The district is R+19, the reddest district in Georgia. No Democrat has ever gotten over 30% in a House race there.

Per Georgia law, all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party. If a candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, he or she is elected. If not, there will be a runoff on April 7. Twenty-two candidates filed but four have dropped out. Left are 13 Republicans, 3 Democrats, 1 Libertarian, and 1 independent.

Among the candidates on the Republican side are local prosecutor Clay Fuller, former state Rep. Colton Moore, ex-Greene staffer Jim Tully, FEMA official Star Black, pastor Tom Gray, horse trainer Reagan Box, and farmer Jennifer Turnipseed. One of the great things about America is that anyone can run for Congress. Fuller has raised the most money, by far, but conservative businessman Brian Stover has the biggest war chest—using his own money.

Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired brigadier general, who ran against Greene in 2024, is trying again. If the Republican vote is fragmented, he might make it to the runoff and then be crushed there. He did raise $4.3 million though, most of it from outside the state from people who don't like Greene but who can't vote in the special election. Polymarket has Harris and Moore as the top two at 9% and 7%, respectively. They could well meet in the April 7 runoff, in which case Moore would be the heavy favorite. That said, he is crazypants and Harris is not, so never know. Maybe some voters in GA-14 have had their fill of crazy. Early turnout was higher than usual. The winner will serve until Jan. 3, 2027. Anyone who wants to run for a full term starting in Jan. 2027 has to file and run in that election, which is separate from the special election tomorrow. (V)

Trump Is Facing Numerous Risks He Can't Control

What a difference a few months make. Last fall, Democrats were despondent. Donald Trump looked all-powerful and the future looked bleak. That has changed in the past few months for various reasons that have given Democrats some hope.

The midterm elections are almost never kind to the president's party, even under the best of conditions. But the level of unkindness depends on how popular the president is. This year Donald Trump has many vulnerabilities, some of which he can't do much about. Here is a partial list:

In short, there is an awful lot that could go wrong between now and November. It doesn't have to all happen to sink the Republicans' boat, but if some of these issues have gone way wrong, that will give the Democrats something to talk about all day. (V)

Trump Warns of Imminent Action against Cuba

The Shield of Americas held its first meeting at Donald Trump's Doral golf club on Saturday. We wonder if Trump at least gave the leaders a discount on their rooms. Pretty much all the big players in the Americas showed up. Well, except for Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Here is the happy American family:

Photo of leaders at Shield of the Americas

The countries that did show up were the real heavyweights, like Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. Our guess is that the leaders who did show up were holding their breath and crossing their fingers that Trump didn't decide to invade them next. Note the absence of the new U.S. envoy to the Shield: Kristi Noem.

Cuba also wasn't represented, and is now in deep doodoo. Trump said: "Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil. They have a bad philosophy. They have a bad regime that's been bad for a long time." It is true that the Cuban economy is in dire straits, but that is because the U.S. has had a total embargo on the country for most of the last 64 years. If that were lifted, the country would probably do as well as other countries in the region.

Trump added that Cuba is its last moments of life, so maybe an invasion is indeed imminent. He even went so far as to say that he planned to put Marco Rubio in charge, Rubio's down to only two or three jobs at this point, so why not add Viceroy of Cuba to the list? If the attack on Iran was to draw attention away from the Epstein files, then an attack on Cuba will be to draw attention away from the attack on Iran. Cuba is a small defenseless country, so an attack on it will be 100x easier than the one on Iran. Trump might well do it because it would be militarily easy. Then he could claim he is two for three (Venezuela and Cuba vs. Iran). Even Ted Williams never dreamed of hitting .667 (V)

Democrats are Dysfunctional

"Democrats in disarray" has been used so much that it is getting a bit boring, so Axios used a different word in its article about the DNC and its chairman Ken Martin. The thrust of the article is that Martin is a "Minnesota nice" guy but maybe not the guy the Democrats need right not to run the DNC. The main job of the DNC is raising money and he is not doing that very well. The Party has $15 million in the bank—and $17 million in debt. That probably won't hurt so much in the midterms because Democrats are fired up and don't need TV ads to tell them to go vote, but going forward, Martin will have to do much, much better. The RNC has $95 million in the bank, no debt, and plenty of big donors who can be called upon when needed.

Where the DNC plays a big role is organizing the 2028 primaries, debates, and so on. It is badly fragmented about that, since the primary schedule has a huge effect on who the presidential nominee might be. If South Carolina goes first (where 60% of the primary voters are Black), Black candidates like Kamala Harris will get a big boost and candidates Black voters don't like (such Pete Buttigieg) will be left on the ground as roadkill. It would be New Hampshire in reverse. Nevada would love to go first, and Latino candidates from the region (hint: Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-AZ) would benefit from that. Having a big state, say, Michigan, go first, puts a premium on fundraising rather than shoeleather. The decision is fraught and Martin doesn't seem to be able to herd the cats well. Maybe nobody could, but Martin signed up for the job and "nobody" didn't.

Martin also has a thin skin and takes policy criticisms as personal criticisms. Having a thin skin is not a good characteristic for the nominal head of a major political party. People have said he is melancholy. He also tends to rely too heavily on Minnesota allies he knows well.

Some of his ideas have been very poorly received, like having a midterm convention this year. These things are expensive and the Party is broke, so there is a lot of internal resistance. He only recently gave up on the plan, but defended it for far too long.

Another idea of Martin's that has been problematical is his decision to first commission an autopsy report about 2024 and then decide to hide it. Bad combination. Either you commission it and then publish it, come what may, or if you are afraid of what it might say, don't commission it in the first place (or at the very least commssion it secretly and don't tell anyone about it). Martin has been widely criticized for first commissioning the report and then burying it. Why Kamala Harris lost isn't that much of a secret after all. Voters disliked Joe Biden and she was "more of the same," prices were up, Black and Latino men don't vote for women, Harris didn't excite young voters, and generally, she didn't give anyone a clear and compelling reason to vote for her.

It is always hard for the "out" party to raise money in the first year after a painful defeat, and maybe Martin will learn the ropes, but many people feel the head of the DNC should be a real fighter, especially with such an inviting target as Donald Trump. This is doubly true when the other Party leaders, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) are seen as old, weak, or both.

All this is not to say Martin is hopeless and the DNC is dead in the water, but he needs to get going much better before 2027 hits hard. (V)

DoJ Publishes More Epstein Files

Despite AG Pam Bondi saying that all the Epstein files had been released, she managed to find a few more and released them over the weekend. Most likely they were about to come out anyway or she wouldn't have done it. One of the files is a report to the FBI about a girl who was 13-15 then. Here is a paragraph from page 8:

paragraph from FBI report

It should be noted that this is a summary of an interview an FBI agent conducted. The agent did not verify it, so it could be made up. Reader discretion advised. But if the Democrats capture the House, they might want to have a pleasant chat with the person who was interviewed, and maybe with the subject of her report, as well.

When asked why this interview and two others were not released the first time, the DoJ said it thought these were duplicates of other documents that were released. Intrepid reporters discovered the omission from another document and forced the DoJ's hand. Reporters believe that many more documents have been kept secret.

The Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are not pleased. They released a statement saying that the DoJ is engaged in a massive cover-up, with 2.5 million pages still being hidden. The Committee has subpoenaed Bondi to testify before the Committee. She is very likely to be as aggressive and belligerent as she was last time, no matter how insulted the members are. She is playing for an audience of one, especially now that Cabinet heads are starting to roll. (V)

Democrats See Chances in House Races

There have been some developments in House races of late that could be important.

A year ago, none of these districts were seen as competitive. Now all three are. In a blue wave, Democrats could possibly win all three of them, something that would have been inconceivable at this point in 2025. (V)

There Is Another Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Next Month

There is an exciting primary in Illinois next week, but then the primary well runs dry until May 5, when Indiana and Ohio hold primaries. It would be a big help to us if the states spread their primaries out more uniformly, but they don't. Jerks. Nevertheless, there is some election action in April that is important enough to take a peek at now. It is for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

If you are a real politics junkie you are probably thinking: "Again?" Yes, again. You might be thinking of the bitter April 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election in which Janet Protasiewicz was elected, giving liberal members of the "nonpartisan" court a majority. Or you might be thinking of the equally bitter April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election in which Susan Crawford's win maintained the liberal majority. That election is the one in which Elon Musk spent $25 million helping the conservative Brad Schimel and came up way short, with Crawford winning 55%-45%.

The seven justices are elected to 10-year terms, so there is an election almost every year. Currently, four of the justices are liberals: Jill Karofsky (chief), Crawford, Rebecca Dallet, and Protasiewicz. Three are conservatives: Rebecca Bradley, Brian Hagedorn, and Annette Zieger. Hagedorn is the only man on the Court. In April, Bradley would have been up for reelection but she decided to retire. Here is the current lineup of the Court:

Name Born Start Term ends Law school Leans
Jill Karofsky July 15, 1966 Aug 1, 2020 2030 Wisconsin Liberal
Annette Ziegler March 6, 1964 Aug 1, 2007 2027 Marquette Conservative
Rebecca Bradley August 2, 1971 Oct. 12, 2015 2026 Wisconsin Conservative
Rebecca Dallet July 15, 1969 Aug. 1, 2018 2028 Case Western Reserve Liberal
Brian Hagedorn January 21, 1978 Aug. 1, 2019 2029 Northwestern Conservative
Janet Protasiewicz December 3, 1962 Aug. 1, 2023 2033 Marquette Liberal
Susan M. Crawford March 1, 1965 Aug. 1, 2025 2035 Iowa Liberal

Two judges on the Wisconsin Court of Appeals are running to replace Bradley. They are the liberal Chris Taylor and the conservative Maria Lazar. If Taylor wins, there will be a liberal majority that will hold through the 2028 presidential election (barring an unexpected death or resignation), no matter what happens in the 2027 and 2028 judicial elections. Since Wisconsin is the swingiest of the swing states, there could, and probably will, be lawsuits in Wisconsin in 2028 that make it to the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Taylor is a former state representative who promises to protect voting rights. She authored a ruling in 2023 making it easier to vote by mail. She is against aggressive gerrymandering. Lazar has defended Republican gerrymandering and voter ID requirements.

The race is fairly low-profile because control of the Court is not at stake. If Lazar wins, the status quo is maintained. If Taylor wins, the liberals strengthen their existing majority. Polls show that 93% of the voters in Wisconsin haven't even heard of the race. That does not bode will for a big turnout. Or any turnout. If the interfraternity conference at the University of Wisconsin charters a few buses to take the members to the polls, that could swing the election. Or, if Musk drops another $25 million, that would probably drive turnout way up. Though maybe not in the way he wants. (V)

Steyer Is Trying to Force Swalwell Out of the Gubernational Election in California

Politics ain't beanbag. It is more like beanball. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and billionaire Tom Steyer are running neck and neck in the race for governor of California. So what is Steyer doing? Buying another $50 million in TV ads? Nah. He is trying to win the old fashioned way: dirty tricks. In particular, instead of trying to buy votes, which is the typical billionaire's go-to trick, he is trying to get Swalwell kicked off the ballot altogether. The man thinks big.

California has a requirement that candidates live in the state for 5 years prior to the election. The secretary of state regards that provision as unconstitutional and unenforceable. A key question here is what does "live" mean? Swalwell has been in Congress for 13 years, but House members don't have to live in the districts they represent. Conservative filmmaker Joel Gilbert previously sued Swalwell over this point, since the address Swalwell listed on his candidacy form is the business address of his lawyers. Candidates often do this for security reasons. Swalwell claims that he rents in the East Bay. He is registered to vote at an address belonging to the in-laws of a political associate. He has a house in D.C. that he has claimed as his primary residence. This is not unusual. Many members of Congress have a house in D.C., Virginia, or Maryland where they live most of the year and a secondary house or apartment back home.

In short, what Swalwell is doing is actually fairly common among members of Congress, but now Steyer is trying to use this arrangement to get rid of him, instead of the proper way—flooding the airwaves with disgusting and largely false negative ads. The whole situation is murky. Election attorney Fredric Woocher said that it is not clear the secretary of state has the authority to enforce the residency requirement, even if it is constitutional. In 1979, the then-attorney general decided that his office could not enforce a 1-year residency requirement for the state legislature. Woocher said: "I don't think there's a chance in hell that the secretary of state would make a determination on Swalwell's residency."

A spokesperson for Swalwell said: "Steyer's sinking campaign has already spent $64 million on ads that have flopped, so his team has resorted to a petty letter to the CA Secretary of State to try to slow down Eric Swalwell's momentum. Run up those legal bills, Tom. But if you want to know why people don't like billionaires, it's because of stupid shit like this." (V)

Judge Rules That Kari Lake Was Not Legally Appointed to Run Voice of America

The courts have given Donald Trump another black eye. On Saturday, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth, a Ronald Reagan appointee, ruled that Kari Lake is not the head of USAGM, the organization that runs the Voice of America, because she was not confirmed by the Senate. Consequently all the actions she has taken as fake leader are invalid and must be reversed. This includes firing most of the staff. All of her handiwork has to be undone now.

Lake got the position via a complicated series of maneuvers intended to skirt the requirement for Senate confirmation, probably because Trump sensed (or was told) the votes weren't there. If he picked competent people for positions, he could get them confirmed easily, but then they wouldn't do his bidding, especially when he wanted something illegal (or legal, but against the mission of the organization in question). The judge saw right through this chicanery and clearly stated that Senate confirmation was necessary for the position and Lake never got it.

This ruling is based on the Vacancies Reform Act, which describes how federal vacancies are to be filled. That law is based on the assumption that the president and the Senate always act in good faith and are trying to do what is best for the country. It gives the president some leeway in filling vacancies, but not as much as Trump wants. If the Democrats get the trifecta in 2028, maybe they need to revise this law and other laws to require that if a vacancy occurs, the highest remaining Senate-confirmed person in the department or agency below the vacancy automatically takes over, with the president not involved other than submitting a nomination to the Senate for confirmation. With a Democratic president, Senate Republicans might be willing to rein in this power.

Because he wants to destroy the government, sometimes Trump does things that are so much against his own interest that it is truly amazing. He could easily have told Lake to keep the VoA running full blast and fill all the air time with his speeches, reading his bleats from social media out loud, and otherwise telling the world how great he is, in 200+ languages. Maybe Elon Musk could get his AI bot to automatically translate the bleats into all the required languages. From Trump's point of view, that would seem to be a better deal than turning the radio off. But those were apparently not her marching orders. (V)


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