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New polls:
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: (None)
A Great Night for Politics Junkies
Lots of voters in half a dozen states headed to the polls yesterday to choose candidates for November's general election. There are quite a few interesting storylines; here are the eight that stand out to us:
- In California, There Are Things Known...: Polls close pretty late in the Golden State,
there are a lot of voters, and the wonky top-two system adds complications on top of that. So, there are some answers in
key races, but not all that many. Mayor Karen Bass (I, but really D-Los Angeles) will advance to a runoff. She got 36.4%
of the vote, with 53% reporting, which is enough to be safe, but nowhere near enough to make a second round of voting
unnecessary. All of the House incumbents running for reelection, save two, have already secured a spot in the general.
In CA-11, which is open by virtue of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D) retirement, Scott Wiener (D) and Connie Chan (D) advanced,
meaning Pelosi managed to flex her muscles one last time for the road and to power Chan into the next round. Those are
about the only certainties.
- And There Are Things Unknown: In the much-watched California gubernatorial election,
things are still up in the air. With a shade over half the votes reported, Steve Hilton (R) has 27.6% of the vote,
Xavier Becerra (D) has 25.5%, Tom Steyer (D) has 19.6% and Chad Bianco (R) has 11.3%. Bianco is done for; he barely won
his home county (Riverside), and there's no way he can add enough votes to climb into second place. It will probably be
Hilton and Becerra in the general, but there are enough votes still uncounted in Los Angeles and San Francisco that it's
plausible for any two of the top three candidates to survive.
Meanwhile, the two House races where an incumbent has not yet secured a slot in the second round are CA-06 and CA-07. In the former, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I), Michael Stansfield (R) and Richard Pan (D) are in a pitched battle, with 26.9%, 22.1% and 21.2% of the vote, respectively, and only 47% reporting. In the latter, Rep. Doris Matsui (D) has 30.7% of the vote, with 47% reporting, while Mai Vang (D) has 24.9% and Zachariah Wooden (R) is close behind with 24.1%.
In the Los Angeles mayoral race, reality TV star Spencer Pratt (I, but really R) has 29.1% of the vote, while City Councilwoman Nithya Raman (I, but really D) has 21.6%. We can't find anyone who has a heat map of the race, so we can't tell where the missing votes are, but nobody has called it for Pratt, so the missing votes must be substantially from the southern and eastern portions of Los Angeles.
We will clearly have to do another piece on California, either tomorrow or the next day, once the dust has settled a bit more. - A Poke in Trump's Eye: Mostly, Donald Trump was on the winning horse
in the various races in which he endorsed. There was one very notable exception, however. In the hotly contested
Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary, businessman and farmer Zach Lahn beat the Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra,
37.8% to 37.0%. This clearly reflects unhappiness with Trump's two wars—the trade war and the Iran War—both of
which are hitting Iowans right in the wallet. What this means for the general election... well, who knows? The
simplest explanation, but by no means the only possible one, is that many Trumpy Republicans stayed home because
they weren't particularly motivated to get out and vote. If so, that certainly could carry into the general.
What we CAN say about the Iowa gubernatorial race is that it's lining up about as well as is possible for the Democrats. Lahn is an unknown who has about $600,000 in the bank. The Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, has already twice won statewide, is fairly popular, is a moderate, and has $18 million in the bank. We should probably also note that Iowa has elected a Democrat as governor as recently as 2006 (Chet Culver), so it's not like we're talking about, say, Nebraska or Idaho here (for those two states, you have to go back to the early 1990s to find a Democratic gubernatorial winner). - The Iowa Senate Race Will Be a Barnburner, Too: As the polls predicted, the race
to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will pit Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) against state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Turek is
the more moderate of the two Democrats who were in the running, was most certainly the "establishment" candidate,
and has shown himself to be a skilled campaigner.
It is, of course, more probable than not that the Senate race will go to the same party that wins the gubernatorial race. So, if there's a blue backlash in the Hawkeye State in November, then it could certainly propel both Sand and Turek to victory. One interesting thing about the Senate race is that the Hinson campaign has outraised the Turek campaign about 2-to-1 (roughly $6 million to $3 million), but that obscures the fact that most of the super PAC money has flowed in Turek's direction. In particular, VoteVets spent just shy of $10 million to help Turek secure the nomination.
We don't entirely understand why VoteVets is so very interested in this particular race. Turek is not a veteran (though his father was), and his disability is thus not service-related. According to press releases, the vets see his struggle as mirroring that of those who have been wounded in combat. And Turek has certainly pushed for some pro-vet legislation during his time in the Iowa state House, though his support for veterans does not seem to be particularly more profound than that of other politicians, on either side of the aisle. Whatever the motivation is, if the veteran community is strongly in Turek's corner, that could be a big deal in November.
Incidentally, if you would like to read the press release that VoteVets released congratulating Turek on his victory, and ponder the matter for yourself, it is here. - Independent's Day in Montana: In pretty much every important swing-y contest, the
Democrats got what they wanted yesterday. That includes the U.S. Senate race in Montana. On the Republican side, it's
going to be Kurt Alme, who conspired with Sen. Steve Daines (R) to claim the nomination by gaming the paperwork-filing
process. On the Democratic side, in a mild upset, it's going to be Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead, who beat the more
experienced and somewhat better known Reilly Neill, a former state representative.
Bankhead, by all indications, is not a serious candidate. She did little campaigning, and raised a grand total of $15,240, of which she spent only $5,775 (by contrast, Neill raised $277,088). The reason that "not a serious candidate" is good news for the Democrats is that it is expected that Bankhead will either withdraw from the race, or will not spend much energy on campaigning. That will help clear the decks for the blue team's actual candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar (I). It is possible that between not having a (D) next to his name, Alme's undemocratic gamesmanship, and the unfriendly-to-Republicans political climate, Bodnar could attract enough independent and crossover votes to win this thing. - A Kean Opponent: Yesterday, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) posted on eX-Twitter that
he will be away from Washington even longer than expected (and he's already been gone-without-a-trace for 3 months), and
will explain his medical condition upon his return. We wonder what is going on, such that it precludes him from even
making a video or posting
a photograph assuring the voters he (ostensibly) represents that he is OK.
The ideal opponent to face Kean, in the EVEN NJ-07, would probably be a moderate woman who is young and vigorous and a veteran. And that is who the Democrats will have, as Rebecca Bennett easily outclassed the other three contenders for the Democratic nomination, taking 45.5% of the vote, to 20% for her nearest competitor. Will Kean even be able to campaign? Will he have to drop out, and be replaced by GOP pooh-bahs in the Garden State? These are questions that undoubtedly are giving NRCC Chair Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) ulcers right now. - Throw the Bum Out: Even when the voters are in a "throw the bums out" kind of mood,
they don't usually do it in the primaries. So, we won't really know if 2026 is that kind of year until November.
However, one bum that might be headed for an early exit is Gov. Larry Rhoden (R-SD), who managed to claim just 25.2% of
the primary vote, which is pretty darn poor for an incumbent, even if he's only the incumbent because his predecessor,
Kristi Noem (R), quit mid-term. Rhoden will face a runoff on July 28 with businessman Toby Doeden, who took 30.6% of the vote in
the four-way race. Donald Trump did not endorse in this race,
because he does not like to put his batting average at risk if he can avoid it. So, Doeden did it on his own. Whoever
wins the runoff, his
victim in November will be former state legislator Dan Ahlers (D), whose primary was uncontested.
- Watch Out, Glass Ceiling: As expected, former representative and Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (D) easily won her party's nomination for governor of New Mexico, taking just shy of three-quarters of the vote. She will almost certainly defeat the Republican nominee, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. If so, Haaland will become the first Native American woman to be elected as a state governor.
Again, once the rest of the results are known, particularly out west in California, we'll have a follow-up. (Z)
The Supreme Court Is Just Making It Up
This news broke fairly late, and we want to give (L) enough time to do a proper analysis, but it's important enough that we wanted to at least mention that the Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use the district map that turns one seat occupied by a Black person (and Democrat) into one that will be occupied by a Republican.
The primary mission of this site, from its founding to the present day, is to push for involvement in the democratic process for all Americans. In view of that, we make no apologies for expressing our disgust, today and in tomorrow's piece, that SCOTUS seems to care only about what is good for Republicans, and not precedent, or equal access for all Americans, or even "you don't mess with an election that is already underway." We got this message from reader R.R. in Pasadena, CA that captures our feelings pretty damn well:
The Supreme Court just told Alabama that it can swap its court-ordered House election map for one that was found to be illegal by the 2023 Supreme Court. Apparently, the 2026 Supreme Court is just fine with allowing racist maps to be used even if it means changing things right in the middle of an election. The Roberts Court apparently believes that the rules shouldn't change in the months before an election, unless it helps Republicans, in which case the rules must change even if votes have already been cast and counted. I think that's how the Purcell principle works, based on their decisions, because that's how they keep applying it.
The Roberts Court is going to go down as the worst court in history. The Taney Court had the (inexcusable) excuse that slavery was still legal and racism against Black people was encouraged. The Roberts Court has the past 160 years of history showing that racism and segregation is wrong but they are making decisions to bring them back anyways. The Supreme Court must be reformed, as a result of these blatantly partisan and political decisions, because the nation can't survive with a Court that tries to divide the nation and undermine the Constitution in support of a political party that is based on hate.
Expect more of the same tomorrow. (Z)
No More Slush Fund (for Now?)
After getting vast amounts of blowback, Donald Trump is supposedly withdrawing the plan to establish a $1.776 billion fund to pay off insurrectionists.
It is very clear that the problem here was Congress. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has taken the lead in suggesting gently, and sometimes not-so-gently, that the slush fund was a bad idea, particularly if Trump wants to have any chance at getting the reconciliation bill he's demanded. The Majority Leader of the United States Senate Does. Not. Say. such things publicly unless he is speaking for a big chunk of his conference (or caucus, if a Democrat).
That said, the biggest goodie in the package, at least from the vantage point of the Trump family, is still intact. Acting AG Todd Blanche told Congress, in no uncertain terms, that the agreement to let Trump off the hook for future investigations into him, his kids and his businesses remains in effect. This may be sufficient to get Republicans to pass the reconciliation bill, and to give ICE even more billions of dollars. Thus far, the Republican members of Congress have not done much to signal what way they are leaning (though keep in mind that, with or without the IRS "Get Out of Jail Free" card, the reconciliation bill is still a tough climb).
Even if Congressional Republicans roll over, as they so often do, Trump and his underlings are not out of the woods. U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams has invoked her authority under Rule 11 to investigate whether this was all just a ruse to perpetrate a fraud on the court, and to use the judicial system as cover for not only the slush fund but also for offering protection to Trump, his businesses and his family from IRS and other agency investigations. Among the things the judge is likely to want to know is what, if anything, Trump has given in exchange for these deals. A valid settlement agreement is a contract, where each side contributes something of value, also known as consideration. If there was collusion in bringing the case, and all sides understood that there were no valid claims here, then any so-called agreement is illegal and unenforceable. The judge can also order sanctions and other penalties if she finds that the case was a sham.
Incidentally, it's unclear to us why the media is reporting that this deal is only about Trump's taxes. The language is framed as a release of ALL claims any government agency may have against Trump and the other plaintiffs related to "the Case or the Pending Agency Claims," "Lawfare and/or Weaponization," or "any matters currently pending or that could be pending (including tax returns filed before the Effective Date) before Defendants or other agencies or departments." Did Blanche leave anyone or any part of the government out? We don't think so. In addition, if one looks carefully at the purported agreement, those capitalized terms also have special significance and purport to confer even broader immunity on Trump. For example, the term "Pending Agency Claims" refers to a claim Trump made under the Federal Tort Claims Act related to the search for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. The release language could be read as prohibiting a future DoJ from refiling the criminal classified documents case against Trump.
The Supreme Court gave Trump immunity from most criminal prosecutions for acts while he's in office and now he's arranged to have his "former" personal attorney, Todd Blanche, give him, his family and his businesses immunity for all other actions taken while out of office. Trump is trying mightily to disprove that old adage that no one is above the law. So far, he's done a pretty good job of it, but we'll see what Williams, et al. have to say.
Meanwhile, we actually don't think the politics of this situation have changed all that much. Whether Trump does or does not get his $1.776 billion, he certainly tried to get it. And he may try again, once the reconciliation bill is dealt with, one way or another. And he is still actively trying to be excused from any and all accountability for any and all federal misdeeds. There's still plenty of cudgel here for the Democrats to use against Trump and his party, particularly since the blue team intends to make corruption a major part of its 2026 pitch.
In short, it seems like Trump's underlings have created yet another mess for him. That is what will happen when you have underlings that are both utterly obeisant and utterly incompetent. And keep reading. (L & Z)
Pulte to Pull Double Duty as Trump Lackey
Bill Pulte is the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). What Pulte is supposed to do, in that position, is oversee the various federally backed lenders who provide home loans. What he primarily does, however, is try to find information that can be weaponized against Donald Trump's perceived enemies. It is Pulte who was behind the "criminal" cases against New York AG Letitia James, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and others.
Given the excellent work that Pulte has done, it means he's earned the opportunity to expand his portfolio. And so, as of yesterday, he is the acting Director of National Intelligence, succeeding the recently departed Tulsi Gabbard. Pulte is keeping his FHFA job, so we guess he'll spend half his time overseeing home loans and the other half overseeing the United States' 18 intelligence agencies.
There is no indication that Pulte has any qualifications whatsoever to be DNI, at least in terms of what the DNI is supposed to do. However, Pulte is eminently qualified to do what Trump wants, which is to provide information that supports the administration's narratives on Iran, Venezuela and, likely in the near future, Cuba. This will undoubtedly please Trump, and help him to indulge his fantasies about how he's beating all of America's adversaries into the ground with his enormous penis. It will make actual success in those conflicts considerably harder, however.
Pulte was tapped because, in addition to being a fawning lackey, he is already Senate-approved for a senior position. So, by law, he's allowed to take over a different senior position on an acting basis. In theory, that is only supposed to be OK for 180 days, but Trump has a habit of ignoring such deadlines, and congressional Republicans have a habit of letting him do it. So, it's anyone's guess how long Pulte will actually remain in his new job, and how long he'll keep both jobs. The good news, we suppose, is that it sure looks like Trump is running out of lackeys to appoint. If he wasn't, he wouldn't need to give every lackey he does have working for him two or three different jobs. (Z)
Never Forget: Pop
Today, we hear from C.J. in Burke, VA:
One of the best gifts my 7-year-old daughter gave me back in December 1991 was a letter to my grandfather in Kansas (her great-grandfather) asking what he was doing when Pearl Harbor was bombed. She also mentioned she was in a play. Her missive resulted in a handwritten letter from my grandfather, dated January 6, 1992, about what he did in World War II. Family lore is that he was the oldest man drafted by his draft board:
Now, Lilabet, before being sidetracked by the foregoing dissertation about names, it was, and now is, my intention to answer your question about where I was while first learning about the Pearl Harbor bombing. As a preface to the answer, you must remember that television had not yet been produced, satellites were unheard of and, by today's standards, electronic communication was in the dark ages. As a consequence, people spent much more of their free time out-of-doors. Now, just bear with me, Lilabet, you will have your answer in due time, but I am sure that a budding actress will understand that such an infamous event deserves a certain amount of drama in the telling. So, let us continue with the narrative of events concerning your great-grandparents Vance and Margarete Briley on Sunday, 7 December 1941. After breakfast, some household chores, and lunch we decided to take a drive, which was not uncommon then. Our first destination was a Greek candy and ice cream parlor called the Chocolate Shop which was somewhat famous for its home-made candy, especially a black walnut divinity of which both Margarete and I were fond. During the drive from our house to the candy store (distance about 3 miles), I turned on the car radio but in a moment or so the program was preempted for an announcement that Pearl had been bombed. It was then about 3 p.m. our time. So, there you have it Lilabet, time, place and circumstance. I might add that we continued on to the Chocolate Shop, purchased the candy, returned home and listened to the news until bedtime. Your grandmother Gail, then 5, was quite unaware of the significance of the news but she and your great-great-grandmother Noble, who was living with us at the time, enjoyed the candy.
Pearl Harbor affected our lives profoundly. First came conscription (after declarations of war with Japan and Germany and which I will deal with in more detail later), rationing of most essentials, wage and price controls, etc. Due to rationing of gasoline it became mandatory that we sell our house and move closer to school and public transportation. At the time, 1942, I had been working at the newspaper for 16 years. Soon, newsprint was rationed which drastically reduced the number of pages and resulted in wholesale layoffs, me included. After 6 weeks of retraining as a riveter, I obtained a night job at North American Aviation assembling B-25s. Wage about 1/3 of that at the newspaper. In 1943 I was called back to the newspaper. (I should point out here that, early on, I, like all able-bodied males between age 18 to 45, were registered for the draft and classified according to statue such as health, single, married, dependents, students and civilian job importance). I was classified 3A, because of marital status and job importance, had I chosen to take advantage of the latter exemption.
A debate was ongoing in Congress about the call-up of fathers, and I felt strongly that being a father was not a creditable reason for exemption and that his responsibility for risking life and limb in the war was no less than that of an unmarried man. I wrote letters expressing that opinion, sent them to Senators [Arthur] Capper and [Clyde M.] Read [both R-KS], along with the recommendation that they vote for legislation approving the drafting of fathers which was adopted. Whether or not my letters played any part in the matter is open to question but as a consequence of the legislation, I was immediately moved into the IA classification which left only the newspaper job priority exemption as a tool to escape military service. Since there were unemployed printers available to fill any vacancy at the newspaper, I refused to take advantage of the job priority exemption and received a notice to appear for induction shortly thereafter.
My choice for service was the Navy, and in January of 1944, I arrived at the Farragut Training Station, which had been carved out of a wilderness in northern Idaho. After 16 weeks of indoctrination, I was sent to the University of Minnesota to be trained as an electrician. With 12 weeks of exposure to the field of electronics, I moved on to Solomons, Maryland, on Chesapeake Bay, where the discovery was made that I had been assigned to the naval amphibious branch, which included all of the beach landing and smaller supply craft. My stay there lasted only long enough to be able to identify by sight the variety of vessels in this branch, on any one of which I might be stationed (a question not to be answered, until the elapse of 2 months; time and about 4,500 miles of travel by bus, rail and sea to the final destination, Southampton, on the east coast of England). There I finally went aboard LST 344 (landing ship tank). The crew of 123 were mostly young, late teens and early 20's, but already battle-tested veterans having participated in the North African and Italian campaigns, as well as the initial landings on the Normandy beaches in June of 1944.
Due to stress or some illness their only electrician, who had shared these campaigns with them, was being replaced by a 36-year-old Boy Scout fresh from the States with no real experience as either a sailor or an electrician. To say that my situation verged on the untenable is an understatement. This was the first LST I had been aboard. I had no idea of how much electrical equipment there was to be operated and maintained, or the locations thereof. Obviously, the crew was less-than-friendly, and yet their cooperation was vital if my mission was to succeed. It was now August and the ship was engaged in transporting troops and supplies to the beaches and returning POWs to England. At the moment of my arrival, 344 was anchored off-shore awaiting its turn to be called in to port at Southampton to take on cargo for the beaches.
I knew that if there was to be any rapport with the crew, the effort had to be initiated before weighing anchor, which would require a team of several, including an electrician, who didn't know at that time where the generators were located. So, I just stood up in the mess room during dinner, got the attention of that part of the crew not on watch at the time, then proceeded to express my understanding and admiration for their courage as well as the natural hostility that might have arisen toward the raw recruit chosen to replace a mate for whom they no doubt had respect, affection and with whom they had shared the most bloody and difficult part of the war. I then, very frankly, acknowledged my predicament and called for any support they cared to give in order to make the system work for the good of all. To my surprise, there was a standing ovation, handshakes all around, offers of help and the nickname "Pop" was born. From that moment, I became a member of "ship's company," in spirit as well as fact. As the oldest member, I became a father figure and people came to me for advice and problems that they were reluctant to discuss with their peers. While I could not adequately fill the void brought about by the loss of a shipmate. it is my conviction that a new and useful ingredient was added.
We continued to supply and reinforce our land forces from the beach-heads until early December 1944, when the deepwater French ports were liberated and larger cargo ships were able to off-load much closer to the allied offensive which had advanced well into Germany. As a consequence, phaseout of the amphibious fleet from the European theater began in January 1945. In the meantime, I had been promoted to EM3/C and transferred to LST 292, on which I made the 22-day voyage to the Brooklyn naval shipyard where the ship went into drydock to be refitted for service in the Pacific. Germany had surrendered during our voyage back to the States, but war was still waging against the Japanese and we expected to be sent there as soon as the 292 was ready. However, before that happened the Japanese surrendered and I celebrated that event along with thousands of others in Times Square at 42nd and Broadway, New York City.
When the 292 came out of drydock in July we sailed her down to Jacksonville, Florida, and far up the St. John's River, which had been selected as one of the graveyards for thousands of unneeded vessels. The crew of the 292 remained intact, as did those of hundreds of other craft in the river, until demobilization (which was based on length of time served) reached our graveyard in August 1945. But it not until November that I left the ship, went by train to Norman, Oklahoma, and was discharged there that same month. With a ticket to Kansas City and $15 in mustering-out pay. I took the first available train for home. There was no tickertape welcome, no flag waving or any yellow ribbons in evidence. Quite to the contrary, before leaving the railroad station I went to the restroom only to discover after leaving the stall that someone had stolen my peacoat which I had left with a seabag just outside. So much for man's humanity to man. Not knowing just what my arrival schedule might be, there was no one at the station to meet me so I spent half the $15 to taxi home. After 2 weeks of winding down and reacquainting with the family I was back at work. So ends the saga of Vance L. Bailey's participation in World War II.
To the reader who has reached this point I extend congratulations for your perseverance.
As a postscript to all the foregoing I would like to add a few remarks:
- For better or worse, I want to thank you, Lilabet, for furnishing me with a reason to commit to paper some of the many memories which have been rattling about in my head for half a Century. Now if your children should ask what Great-great-grandfather did during WW II, you can tell them, or if this paper is preserved, they may read the tale. I leave you with this admonition: Before asking a question, consider the consequence of an answer which may come as a simple "yes " or "no" or, as in this case, something akin to a book. I know that you cannot read or perhaps understand all that I have written, which is why it is my hope that the writing be preserved until you reach the age of understanding it all.
- In the past it has been my customs, when writing letters, to sit in a rocker with a board across the arms and prepare a rough draft such as the one you have before you. afterward I tried to smooth sentence structure and make connections at the typewriter which is very painful to my back and neck even when the letters are short. This time the job is just more than I can handle in the usual way so what you see is what you get. Hope you all are fully rested and back to normal after the trip.
Happy New year!
Gramps
Thanks, C.J.!
We are still happy to receive submissions at comments@electoral-vote.com, with subject line "Never Forget." (Z)
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