This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Candidate unknown | 39% | Tommy Tuberville* | 61% | Tommy Tuberville* +22 | Nov 03 |
Alaska | Candidate unknown | 34% | Dan Sullivan* | 62% | Dan Sullivan* +28 | Nov 03 |
Arkansas | Candidate unknown | 33% | Tom Cotton* | 67% | Tom Cotton* +34 | Nov 03 |
Colorado | John Hickenlooper* | 53% | Candidate unknown | 44% | John Hickenlooper* +9 | Nov 03 |
Delaware | Chris Coons* | 60% | Candidate unknown | 38% | Chris Coons* +22 | Nov 03 |
Florida | _FL!D | 41% | _FL!R | 58% | _FL!R +17 | Nov 08 |
Georgia | Jon Ossoff* | 51% | Candidate unknown | 49% | Jon Ossoff* +2 | Nov 08 |
Idaho | Candidate unknown | 33% | Jim Risch* | 62% | Jim Risch* +29 | Nov 03 |
Illinois | Dick Durbin* | 54% | Candidate unknown | 40% | Dick Durbin* +14 | Nov 03 |
Iowa | Candidate unknown | 45% | Joni Ernst* | 52% | Joni Ernst* +7 | Nov 03 |
Kansas | Candidate unknown | 42% | Roger Marshall | 53% | Roger Marshall +11 | Nov 03 |
Kentucky | Candidate unknown | 38% | Mitch McConnell* | 58% | Mitch McConnell* +20 | Nov 03 |
Louisiana | Candidate unknown | 21% | Bill Cassidy* | 59% | Bill Cassidy* +38 | Nov 03 |
Maine | Candidate unknown | 43% | Susan Collins* | 51% | Susan Collins* +8 | Nov 03 |
Massachusetts | Ed Markey* | 67% | Candidate unknown | 32% | Ed Markey* +35 | Nov 03 |
Michigan | Gary Peters* | 50% | Candidate unknown | 48% | Gary Peters* +2 | Nov 03 |
Minnesota | Tina Smith* | 49% | Candidate unknown | 44% | Tina Smith* +5 | Nov 03 |
Mississippi | Candidate unknown | 40% | Cindy Hyde-Smith* | 58% | Cindy Hyde-Smith* +18 | Nov 03 |
Montana | Candidate unknown | 45% | Steve Daines* | 55% | Steve Daines* +10 | Nov 03 |
Nebraska | Candidate unknown | 26% | Pete Ricketts* | 67% | Pete Ricketts* +41 | Nov 03 |
New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen* | 57% | Candidate unknown | 41% | Jeanne Shaheen* +16 | Nov 03 |
New Jersey | Cory Booker* | 61% | Candidate unknown | 38% | Cory Booker* +23 | Nov 03 |
New Mexico | Ben Ray Lujan* | 51% | Candidate unknown | 46% | Ben Ray Lujan* +5 | Nov 03 |
North Carolina | Candidate unknown | 47% | Thom Tillis* | 49% | Thom Tillis* +2 | Nov 03 |
Ohio | Candidate unknown | 47% | Appointed senator | 53% | Appointed senator +6 | Nov 08 |
Oklahoma | Candidate unknown | 33% | Markwayne Mullin* | 63% | Markwayne Mullin* +30 | Nov 03 |
Oregon | Jeff Merkley* | 58% | Candidate unknown | 39% | Jeff Merkley* +19 | Nov 03 |
Rhode Island | Jack Reed* | 66% | Candidate unknown | 34% | Jack Reed* +32 | Nov 03 |
South Carolina | Candidate unknown | 42% | Lindsey Graham* | 56% | Lindsey Graham* +14 | Nov 03 |
South Dakota | Candidate unknown | 32% | Mike Rounds* | 68% | Mike Rounds* +36 | Nov 03 |
Tennessee | Candidate unknown | 35% | Bill Hagerty | 62% | Bill Hagerty +27 | Nov 03 |
Texas | Candidate unknown | 44% | John Cornyn* | 54% | John Cornyn* +10 | Nov 03 |
Virginia | Mark Warner* | 56% | Candidate unknown | 44% | Mark Warner* +12 | Nov 03 |
West Virginia | Candidate unknown | 33% | Shelley Moore Capito* | 65% | Shelley Moore Capito* +32 | Nov 03 |
Wyoming | Candidate unknown | 27% | Cynthia Lummis | 73% | Cynthia Lummis +46 | Nov 03 |