State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Candidate unknown 39% Tommy Tuberville* 61% Tommy Tuberville* +22 Nov 03
Alaska Candidate unknown 34% Dan Sullivan* 62% Dan Sullivan* +28 Nov 03
Arkansas Candidate unknown 33% Tom Cotton* 67% Tom Cotton* +34 Nov 03
Colorado John Hickenlooper* 53% Candidate unknown 44% John Hickenlooper* +9 Nov 03
Delaware Chris Coons* 60% Candidate unknown 38% Chris Coons* +22 Nov 03
Florida _FL!D 41% _FL!R 58% _FL!R +17 Nov 08
Georgia Jon Ossoff* 51% Candidate unknown 49% Jon Ossoff* +2 Nov 08
Idaho Candidate unknown 33% Jim Risch* 62% Jim Risch* +29 Nov 03
Illinois Dick Durbin* 54% Candidate unknown 40% Dick Durbin* +14 Nov 03
Iowa Candidate unknown 45% Joni Ernst* 52% Joni Ernst* +7 Nov 03
Kansas Candidate unknown 42% Roger Marshall 53% Roger Marshall +11 Nov 03
Kentucky Candidate unknown 38% Mitch McConnell* 58% Mitch McConnell* +20 Nov 03
Louisiana Candidate unknown 21% Bill Cassidy* 59% Bill Cassidy* +38 Nov 03
Maine Candidate unknown 43% Susan Collins* 51% Susan Collins* +8 Nov 03
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 67% Candidate unknown 32% Ed Markey* +35 Nov 03
Michigan Gary Peters* 50% Candidate unknown 48% Gary Peters* +2 Nov 03
Minnesota Tina Smith* 49% Candidate unknown 44% Tina Smith* +5 Nov 03
Mississippi Candidate unknown 40% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 58% Cindy Hyde-Smith* +18 Nov 03
Montana Candidate unknown 45% Steve Daines* 55% Steve Daines* +10 Nov 03
Nebraska Candidate unknown 26% Pete Ricketts* 67% Pete Ricketts* +41 Nov 03
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 57% Candidate unknown 41% Jeanne Shaheen* +16 Nov 03
New Jersey Cory Booker* 61% Candidate unknown 38% Cory Booker* +23 Nov 03
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan* 51% Candidate unknown 46% Ben Ray Lujan* +5 Nov 03
North Carolina Candidate unknown 47% Thom Tillis* 49% Thom Tillis* +2 Nov 03
Ohio Candidate unknown 47% Appointed senator 53% Appointed senator +6 Nov 08
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 33% Markwayne Mullin* 63% Markwayne Mullin* +30 Nov 03
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 58% Candidate unknown 39% Jeff Merkley* +19 Nov 03
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 66% Candidate unknown 34% Jack Reed* +32 Nov 03
South Carolina Candidate unknown 42% Lindsey Graham* 56% Lindsey Graham* +14 Nov 03
South Dakota Candidate unknown 32% Mike Rounds* 68% Mike Rounds* +36 Nov 03
Tennessee Candidate unknown 35% Bill Hagerty 62% Bill Hagerty +27 Nov 03
Texas Candidate unknown 44% John Cornyn* 54% John Cornyn* +10 Nov 03
Virginia Mark Warner* 56% Candidate unknown 44% Mark Warner* +12 Nov 03
West Virginia Candidate unknown 33% Shelley Moore Capito* 65% Shelley Moore Capito* +32 Nov 03
Wyoming Candidate unknown 27% Cynthia Lummis 73% Cynthia Lummis +46 Nov 03