Tipping-Point State   Sep. 21      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
Massachusetts
11
62%
31%
31%
 17
 532
Maryland
10
63%
33%
30%
 27
 521
California
54
60%
33%
27%
 81
 511
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 85
 457
Washington
12
53%
32%
21%
 97
 453
Rhode Island
4
58%
38%
20%
 101
 441
Connecticut
7
55%
38%
17%
 108
 437
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 127
 430
New York
28
55%
42%
13%
 155
 411
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 163
 383
Delaware
3
51%
40%
11%
 166
 375
Colorado
10
53%
42%
11%
 176
 372
New Mexico
5
49%
39%
10%
 181
 362
New Hampshire
4
53%
43%
10%
 185
 357
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 199
 353
Maine
4
50%
41%
9%
 203
 339
Virginia
13
51%
44%
7%
 216
 335
Minnesota
10
50%
43%
7%
 226
 322
Michigan
15
51%
47%
4%
 241
 312
Pennsylvania
19
50%
47%
3%
 260
 297
Nevada
6
50%
48%
2%
 266
 278
Wisconsin
10
49%
48%
1%
     276
     272
North Carolina
16
48%
48%
0%
 292
 262
Arizona
11
49%
49%
0%
 303
 246
Georgia
16
47%
49%
2%
 319
 235
Florida
30
47%
50%
3%
 349
 219
Texas
40
46%
50%
4%
 389
 189
Iowa
6
43%
47%
4%
 395
 149
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 401
 143
Alaska
3
42%
47%
5%
 404
 137
Ohio
17
43%
52%
9%
 421
 134
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 427
 117
Missouri
10
43%
53%
10%
 437
 111
South Carolina
9
40%
52%
12%
 446
 101
Montana
4
41%
56%
15%
 450
 92
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 458
 88
Arkansas
6
40%
55%
15%
 464
 80
Oklahoma
7
40%
56%
16%
 471
 74
Nebraska
5
37%
54%
17%
 476
 67
Indiana
11
40%
57%
17%
 487
 62
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 490
 51
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 493
 48
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 501
 45
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 512
 37
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 516
 26
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 525
 22
Utah
6
28%
60%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3