Tipping-Point State   Sep. 04      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
California
54
61%
36%
25%
 60
 532
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 64
 478
Maryland
10
56%
35%
21%
 74
 474
Massachusetts
11
47%
29%
18%
 85
 464
Maine
4
55%
38%
17%
 89
 453
Connecticut
7
55%
38%
17%
 96
 449
New York
28
58%
42%
16%
 124
 442
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 143
 414
Washington
12
52%
38%
14%
 155
 395
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 163
 383
Delaware
3
51%
40%
11%
 166
 375
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 180
 372
New Mexico
5
54%
46%
8%
 185
 358
Rhode Island
4
40%
33%
7%
 189
 353
New Hampshire
4
52%
46%
6%
 193
 349
Colorado
10
49%
43%
6%
 203
 345
Minnesota
10
48%
43%
5%
 213
 335
Wisconsin
10
50%
47%
3%
 223
 325
Virginia
13
47%
44%
3%
 236
 315
Nevada
6
49%
47%
2%
 242
 302
Pennsylvania
19
49%
48%
1%
 261
 296
Michigan
15
47%
46%
1%
     276
     277
Georgia
16
49%
48%
1%
 292
 262
North Carolina
16
48%
49%
1%
 308
 246
Arizona
11
48%
49%
1%
 319
 230
Indiana
11
43%
47%
4%
 330
 219
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 336
 208
Florida
30
47%
52%
5%
 366
 202
Arkansas
6
42%
48%
6%
 372
 172
Texas
40
45%
52%
7%
 412
 166
Alaska
3
43%
50%
7%
 415
 126
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 421
 123
South Carolina
9
40%
52%
12%
 430
 117
Ohio
17
44%
56%
12%
 447
 108
Oklahoma
7
40%
53%
13%
 454
 91
Montana
4
40%
55%
15%
 458
 84
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 466
 80
Missouri
10
41%
57%
16%
 476
 72
Nebraska
5
37%
54%
17%
 481
 62
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 484
 57
Iowa
6
32%
50%
18%
 490
 54
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 493
 48
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 501
 45
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 512
 37
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 516
 26
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 525
 22
Utah
6
28%
60%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3