Tipping-Point State   Oct. 19      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
Maryland
10
64%
31%
33%
 16
 532
Massachusetts
11
59%
31%
28%
 27
 522
California
54
61%
37%
24%
 81
 511
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 85
 457
Washington
12
56%
36%
20%
 97
 453
Delaware
3
56%
36%
20%
 100
 441
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 119
 438
Connecticut
7
53%
37%
16%
 126
 419
Rhode Island
4
54%
39%
15%
 130
 412
New York
28
54%
40%
14%
 158
 408
Oregon
8
53%
41%
12%
 166
 380
Virginia
13
52%
41%
11%
 179
 372
Colorado
10
53%
42%
11%
 189
 359
New Mexico
5
50%
41%
9%
 194
 349
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 208
 344
Maine
4
50%
41%
9%
 212
 330
New Hampshire
4
51%
43%
8%
 216
 326
Minnesota
10
49%
43%
6%
 226
 322
Nevada
6
49%
47%
2%
 232
 312
Pennsylvania
19
49%
48%
1%
 251
 306
North Carolina
16
49%
49%
0%
 267
 287
Michigan
15
49%
49%
0%
     282
     271
Wisconsin
10
48%
49%
1%
 292
 256
Georgia
16
48%
50%
2%
 308
 246
Arizona
11
48%
50%
2%
 319
 230
Iowa
6
43%
47%
4%
 325
 219
Texas
40
46%
51%
5%
 365
 213
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 371
 173
Ohio
17
45%
52%
7%
 388
 167
Florida
30
44%
52%
8%
 418
 150
Alaska
3
46%
54%
8%
 421
 120
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 427
 117
South Carolina
9
42%
52%
10%
 436
 111
Missouri
10
43%
53%
10%
 446
 102
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 454
 92
Arkansas
6
40%
55%
15%
 460
 84
Utah
6
38%
54%
16%
 466
 78
Oklahoma
7
40%
56%
16%
 473
 72
Nebraska
5
40%
56%
16%
 478
 65
Montana
4
40%
57%
17%
 482
 60
Indiana
11
40%
57%
17%
 493
 56
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 496
 45
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 499
 42
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 507
 39
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 518
 31
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 522
 20
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 531
 16
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3