Tipping-Point State   Nov. 05      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Maryland
10
64%
31%
33%
 13
 535
Vermont
3
63%
31%
32%
 16
 525
California
54
64%
32%
32%
 70
 522
Massachusetts
11
61%
33%
28%
 81
 468
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 85
 457
Delaware
3
56%
36%
20%
 88
 453
New Jersey
14
57%
40%
17%
 102
 450
New York
28
57%
41%
16%
 130
 436
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 149
 408
Connecticut
7
53%
37%
16%
 156
 389
Washington
12
54%
39%
15%
 168
 382
Rhode Island
4
54%
40%
14%
 172
 370
Colorado
10
55%
41%
14%
 182
 366
New Hampshire
4
55%
42%
13%
 186
 356
Oregon
8
53%
41%
12%
 194
 352
Maine
4
52%
42%
10%
 198
 344
Virginia
13
51%
43%
8%
 211
 340
Minnesota
10
51%
44%
7%
 221
 327
New Mexico
5
50%
44%
6%
 226
 317
Wisconsin
10
50%
48%
2%
 236
 312
Michigan
15
50%
48%
2%
 251
 302
Pennsylvania
19
49%
48%
1%
     270
     287
Nevada
6
49%
48%
1%
 276
 268
North Carolina
16
48%
49%
1%
 292
 262
Georgia
16
48%
49%
1%
 308
 246
Arizona
11
47%
48%
1%
 319
 230
Iowa
6
46%
49%
3%
 325
 219
Kansas
6
43%
48%
5%
 331
 213
Texas
40
45%
52%
7%
 371
 207
Florida
30
45%
52%
7%
 401
 167
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 407
 137
Ohio
17
44%
54%
10%
 424
 131
Alaska
3
45%
55%
10%
 427
 114
South Carolina
9
42%
55%
13%
 436
 111
Nebraska
5
40%
55%
15%
 441
 102
Missouri
10
39%
54%
15%
 451
 97
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 459
 87
Arkansas
6
40%
55%
15%
 465
 79
Oklahoma
7
40%
56%
16%
 472
 73
Indiana
11
40%
57%
17%
 483
 66
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 486
 55
Montana
4
40%
59%
19%
 490
 52
Utah
6
34%
54%
20%
 496
 48
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 504
 42
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 515
 34
South Dakota
3
35%
61%
26%
 518
 23
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 522
 20
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 531
 16
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
28%
63%
35%
 538
 3