Tipping-Point State   Nov. 03      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
Maryland
10
63%
34%
29%
 16
 532
Massachusetts
11
61%
34%
27%
 27
 522
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 31
 511
California
54
57%
35%
22%
 85
 507
Washington
12
56%
36%
20%
 97
 453
New Jersey
14
55%
35%
20%
 111
 441
Delaware
3
56%
36%
20%
 114
 427
New York
28
58%
39%
19%
 142
 424
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 161
 396
Connecticut
7
53%
37%
16%
 168
 377
Rhode Island
4
54%
39%
15%
 172
 370
Oregon
8
53%
41%
12%
 180
 366
Colorado
10
53%
42%
11%
 190
 358
Virginia
13
50%
42%
8%
 203
 348
Minnesota
10
51%
43%
8%
 213
 335
Maine
4
51%
43%
8%
 217
 325
New Mexico
5
50%
44%
6%
 222
 321
Wisconsin
10
51%
47%
4%
 232
 316
New Hampshire
4
51%
48%
3%
 236
 306
Pennsylvania
19
49%
48%
1%
 255
 302
Nevada
6
49%
48%
1%
 261
 283
Michigan
15
48%
47%
1%
     276
     277
Arizona
11
47%
47%
0%
 287
 262
North Carolina
16
48%
49%
1%
 303
 251
Georgia
16
48%
49%
1%
 319
 235
Iowa
6
46%
49%
3%
 325
 219
Kansas
6
43%
48%
5%
 331
 213
Texas
40
45%
52%
7%
 371
 207
Ohio
17
44%
51%
7%
 388
 167
Florida
30
45%
52%
7%
 418
 150
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 424
 120
Missouri
10
43%
53%
10%
 434
 114
Alaska
3
45%
55%
10%
 437
 104
South Carolina
9
42%
55%
13%
 446
 101
Nebraska
5
40%
55%
15%
 451
 92
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 459
 87
Arkansas
6
40%
55%
15%
 465
 79
Oklahoma
7
40%
56%
16%
 472
 73
Indiana
11
40%
57%
17%
 483
 66
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 486
 55
Montana
4
40%
59%
19%
 490
 52
Utah
6
34%
54%
20%
 496
 48
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 504
 42
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 515
 34
South Dakota
3
35%
61%
26%
 518
 23
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 522
 20
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 531
 16
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
28%
63%
35%
 538
 3