Tipping-Point State   Aug. 28      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
Maryland
10
64%
32%
32%
 16
 532
California
54
61%
36%
25%
 70
 522
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 74
 468
Massachusetts
11
47%
29%
18%
 85
 464
Maine
4
55%
38%
17%
 89
 453
Connecticut
7
55%
38%
17%
 96
 449
New York
28
58%
42%
16%
 124
 442
Washington
12
52%
38%
14%
 136
 414
Illinois
19
53%
40%
13%
 155
 402
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 163
 383
Delaware
3
51%
40%
11%
 166
 375
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 180
 372
New Mexico
5
54%
46%
8%
 185
 358
Minnesota
10
51%
43%
8%
 195
 353
Rhode Island
4
40%
33%
7%
 199
 343
New Hampshire
4
52%
46%
6%
 203
 339
Colorado
10
49%
43%
6%
 213
 335
Virginia
13
47%
44%
3%
 226
 325
Michigan
15
49%
47%
2%
 241
 312
Arizona
11
47%
45%
2%
 252
 297
Wisconsin
10
49%
48%
1%
 262
 286
North Carolina
16
47%
47%
0%
     278
     276
Pennsylvania
19
47%
48%
1%
 297
 260
Nevada
6
46%
48%
2%
 303
 241
Indiana
11
43%
47%
4%
 314
 235
Florida
30
47%
51%
4%
 344
 224
Texas
40
44%
49%
5%
 384
 194
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 390
 154
Arkansas
6
42%
48%
6%
 396
 148
Georgia
16
44%
51%
7%
 412
 142
Alaska
3
43%
50%
7%
 415
 126
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 421
 123
South Carolina
9
40%
52%
12%
 430
 117
Ohio
17
44%
56%
12%
 447
 108
Oklahoma
7
40%
53%
13%
 454
 91
Montana
4
40%
55%
15%
 458
 84
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 466
 80
Tennessee
11
29%
47%
18%
 477
 72
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 480
 61
Missouri
10
41%
59%
18%
 490
 58
Iowa
6
32%
50%
18%
 496
 48
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 499
 42
Nebraska
5
34%
57%
23%
 504
 39
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 512
 34
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 521
 26
West Virginia
4
31%
63%
32%
 525
 17
Utah
6
28%
60%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3