Tipping-Point State   Aug. 20      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if he wins D.C. and nothing else, he gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Wyoming, he gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
California
54
62%
35%
27%
 57
 535
Maryland
10
56%
30%
26%
 67
 481
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 71
 471
Vermont
3
56%
35%
21%
 74
 467
Massachusetts
11
47%
29%
18%
 85
 464
Connecticut
7
55%
38%
17%
 92
 453
Washington
12
52%
38%
14%
 104
 446
New York
28
53%
39%
14%
 132
 434
Illinois
19
53%
40%
13%
 151
 406
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 159
 387
Delaware
3
51%
40%
11%
 162
 379
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 176
 376
Maine
4
54%
45%
9%
 180
 362
Minnesota
10
51%
43%
8%
 190
 358
Rhode Island
4
40%
33%
7%
 194
 348
New Mexico
5
48%
41%
7%
 199
 344
New Hampshire
4
51%
44%
7%
 203
 339
Colorado
10
49%
43%
6%
 213
 335
Virginia
13
47%
43%
4%
 226
 325
Arizona
11
48%
45%
3%
 237
 312
North Carolina
16
48%
46%
2%
 253
 301
Michigan
15
49%
47%
2%
 268
 285
Wisconsin
10
49%
48%
1%
     278
     270
Pennsylvania
19
48%
49%
1%
 297
 260
Nevada
6
46%
48%
2%
 303
 241
Indiana
11
43%
47%
4%
 314
 235
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 320
 224
Florida
30
45%
50%
5%
 350
 218
Texas
40
47%
53%
6%
 390
 188
Arkansas
6
42%
48%
6%
 396
 148
Georgia
16
44%
51%
7%
 412
 142
Alaska
3
43%
50%
7%
 415
 126
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 421
 123
Ohio
17
42%
52%
10%
 438
 117
South Carolina
9
40%
52%
12%
 447
 100
Oklahoma
7
40%
53%
13%
 454
 91
Missouri
10
43%
57%
14%
 464
 84
Montana
4
40%
55%
15%
 468
 74
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 476
 70
Tennessee
11
29%
47%
18%
 487
 62
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 490
 51
Iowa
6
32%
50%
18%
 496
 48
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 499
 42
Nebraska
5
34%
57%
23%
 504
 39
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 512
 34
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 521
 26
West Virginia
4
31%
63%
32%
 525
 17
Utah
6
25%
57%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3