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Harris Didn't Win it. Trump Lost it.

Politico is a fairly neutral news site. It doesn't lean either way and is not afflicted with "bothsidesism," like The New York Times. Here are its headlines yesterday morning, post debate:

There were no stories there about the good news for Donald Trump, much less about how Trump won.

Although there were many stories there, some themes were repeated in all of them. First, Kamala Harris held her own, even on topics that should have been slam dunks for Trump, like the economy, the border, Gaza, and Afghanistan.

Second, Harris had a strategy and executed it perfectly. She answered some of the questions clearly (like the one on abortion), but mostly she baited Trump by calling him weak in various forms. We were surprised she didn't bring up Stormy Daniels' remark about the worst 90 seconds of her life. That would have made his head explode. He took the bait every time, even though his handlers and Republican officials in public warned him not to take it. It's like telling a starving dog not to eat the big juicy hamburger in front of him because you told him it is rotting and not good for him. The problem with Trump's taking the bait all the time is that it focused on subjects where he is, well, weak. He needed to have the discussion to be about her weaknesses, not his. John Harris, Politico's founding editor, wrote: "On countless occasions, he did the opposite of what any conventional operative would tell him to do. ... While Harris was coached up to her eyeballs, Trump was improvisational to the point of incontinence." Karen Dunn knows her stuff.

Third, Harris did a masterful act of jiu jitsu. She was the semi-incumbent and he was the challenger, but she flipped that and kept acting like she was the change candidate and he was for more of the same old stuff. That's not easy to pull off, but she did it well.

Fourth, by being constantly on the attack and standing up to a bully, she (implicitly) made the case that she could stand up to international bullies, like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-Un. Women have pulled that off before (think: Margaret Thatcher, Indira Gandhi, and Golda Meir), but for America, a tough woman is something new. Hillary Clinton didn't sell that so well.

Trump also made some unforced errors. Claiming that immigrants are going to eat your dog is probably going to make an appearance in a Harris commercial entitled "Weird." Also, see the debate item we have planned for tomorrow.

Foreign diplomats were relieved that Harris did so well. One European diplomat told Politico that Harris was "composed, authoritative, and presidential." Another said: "She even managed to laugh at him." Others said she was her own woman (i.e., not warmed-over Biden). They liked what they saw.

Other more-or-less neutral outlets were similar. How about The Hill, which mixes summaries of stories from other publications with original reporting but has right-wing opinion writers? Here were its headlines in the morning after the debate:

Even a somewhat right-wing publication couldn't spin it for Trump. Trump's remark about Taylor Swift is telling about how he sees the world: What she did could cost her money. He sees doing something that could cost you money as the dumbest thing a person could possibly do. Life is about making the most money possible. The presidency is the biggest grift ever. How could that childless cat lady do something that she thinks is morally right if it might cost her money? What a moron. Doesn't she know that Republicans also buy shoes? Oh wait, that was some guy who plays basketball. We forget who.

The ultimate test is how Fox handled this on its website:

The fact-checking clearly got to Trump's apologists. Maybe they didn't fact-check Harris because she didn't emit a continuous stream of lies. They want the media to give Trump an open channel to lie continuously and not have anyone challenge him.

After the debate, Trump rushed to the spin room. That is exceedingly rare. Candidates like to be above that and have surrogates do the spinning. There are plenty of Republican senators who can spin better than Rumpelstiltskin (although they can't necessarily produce gold; for that, they need help from the Egyptians). Trump could have left the spinning to them. But he clearly sensed that he had lost and felt that he needed to be there personally to save the day. Reporters wanted to know more about immigrants eating pets and how he felt about Taylor Swift endorsing Harris. In the chaos of the spin room, at first nobody even paid attention to Trump, Finally, he said it was his best debate ever:



The Bulwark's Tim Miller was there and kept yelling at him: "Why wouldn't you even look at her?" Trump heard it and immediately looked for more friendly turf. Miller said that Trump's aides were ashen because there is no job in politics worse than being the spinner for a loser (which Miller, an anti-Trump Republican operative, has been). Miller saw Trump's former spokesman Tim Murtaugh (whom he knows) talking to Byron York, a writer for the (right-wing) Washington Examiner. Miller tried to cheer up Murtaugh by saying: "Byron will write you something good." York grunted: "Fu** you." Miller asked Corey Lewandowski what Trump's best answer was. Lewandowski said: "There were so many answers" and trotted off. Miller also asked David Bossie and he said: "That's a good question." When Miller found Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who (like Miller) was an anti-Trumper in 2016, Graham said Trump's performance was a "disaster," and that "his debate team should be fired." A few minutes later, Miller saw Graham posing for a photo with Trump and reiterating his proud support for Trump. Miller is gay, is married to a man, and is quite open about it. It's quite liberating. He also encountered Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who was grinning from ear to ear, and said: "Now he knows her name: Kah-muh-lah. Kah-muh-lah." We have to give Newsom credit for being a good sport. If Harris wins, he can't run for president until 2032, by which time he will be long out of office and possibly forgotten.

Republicans had a conniption over the debate. They clearly knew Trump blew it. They couldn't even lie with a straight face. So they had to find a scapegoat. They decided on the moderators. They hated the moderators fact-checking Trump five times and not fact-checking Harris at all. Maybe that was because Trump lied continuously and Harris didn't. They think it is weird. Donald Trump Jr. tweeted: "Weird how the hack moderators ... are only 'Fact checking' Trump and allowing Kamala to lie nonstop. The Fake News is the enemy of the people." The line about the "enemy of the people" is one of the all-time greatest hits in every dictatorship in history. Tulsi Gabbard wrote: "This debate is three vs. one," a line she got from Trump, who said the same thing to Sean Hannity earlier. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) called Muir and Davis' performance "an embarrassment to journalism." Meghan McCain said: "I don't know what the hell this is but these moderators are doing the American people a grave disservice." If we may adapt the old lawyer's line for debate performance: "If you won on substance, hammer on substance. If you won on style, hammer on style. If you didn't win on either, hammer the moderators."

Fundamentally, Trump's strategy is to lie about everything on the assumption that his base doesn't realize that he is lying. When a neutral moderator calls him out, Trump goes bonkers because that upsets his whole strategy.

Will there be another debate? Harris' campaign manager has already asked for one. That shows her level of confidence. Trump didn't reply to the challenge. That shows what he is thinking.

But remember, winning a debate does not mean also winning an election. Trump will probably not lose any supporters as a result of a poor debate performance. The big question is whether Harris will gain any. That we won't know for a while.

Nevertheless, The Washington Post ran a focus group with 25 undecided swing state voters. They polled the group before and after the debate. Here are the results, with one voter abstaining after the debate:

Results of a focus group before and after the debate, showing pre- and post-debate plans for the participants' votes

The results are clear. Harris got five hard yes votes and a total of 15 hard votes plus probable votes after the debate, vs. no hard yes votes and 12 probable votes before the debate. Trump lost four probable votes and didn't pick up any hard votes. All in all, a win for Harris. (V)

House Republicans Understand What Happened

Politicians are not always as dumb as they act. For political reasons, they often say one thing when they believe the exact opposite. But off the record, they will sometimes tell (friendly) reporters what they really think. The Hill's congressional reporter, Mychael Schnell, talked to a number of House Republicans off the record last night. They were despondent. One told her: "I'm just sad. She knew exactly where to cut to get under his skin. Just overall disappointing that he isn't being more composed like the first debate." Another said: "The road just got very narrow. This is not good."

Another House Republican said: "She talks to us like toddlers but is doing a good job provoking him. He [is] right on policy but can't keep to a message. Many are disappointed he couldn't stay focused or land a punch. Not sure much changes but it wasn't a good performance."

Yet another House Republican said: "I think he is all over the map and has missed opportunities to hammer her record. He's made strong points on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, but it's been disjointed at times." Another one said: "Rough start." Still another one said: "I didn't watch it, but I'm not hearing anything good from it."

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) tweeted: "Trump doing very well & he is right on policy but this debate is skewed!" All Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) could manage was that Trump's performance was "strong."

House Democrats were wildly enthusiastic. One said: "Probably the most one-sided debate victory I have ever seen. Trump is so much more unhinged and incoherent than I thought he would be, and she is poised, strong, and pitch perfect." The representative is probably too young to have seen Lloyd Bentsen wipe the floor with Dan Quayle in the 1988 vice presidential debate. Another said: "I'm proud of her. I stand with her. She makes sense and he's nuts." (V)

Vance Doubles Down on Immigrants Stealing and Eating Pets

With all the attention Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) has been getting about being weird, one would have thought that the Yale-educated lawyer would have enough sense to stick to standard Republican talking points, like inflation, immigration and crime. But no, he is doubling down on saying that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, OH, are stealing and eating their neighbors' pets. He said it again Wednesday, even after moderator David Muir debunked it during Tuesday's debate.

Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck said there are no credible reports or evidence of pets being harmed by immigrants. Police officials have said the same thing. Nevertheless, Vance kept telling his story. He said: "That just means the city manager I think isn't fully in touch with what's going on in the ground there. I've heard from many of my own constituents who have seen these things with their own eyes, who've seen these abductions with their own eyes, who've seen geese being taken out of local parks and slaughtered in front of their eyes." Vance failed to produce even one witness to any pet abduction.

Maybe there are a few people who caught, killed, and ate wild geese. That is a form of hunting wild animals and is completely different from an immigrant sneaking into someone's back yard and abducting Fido for dinner. Canada geese and migratory geese in general are protected, but some geese may be fair game if caught with certain methods.

Also, Vance hasn't gotten the xenophobia thing down pat (yet). It is Asian immigrants who are supposed to savor sweet and sour doggie, not Haitians. Want proof? See this but be warned, it is gross, and not for the weak of stomach.

What is it with Republicans and eating dogs? Now that Robert Kennedy Jr. is officially on Team Trump, and not just helping from the sidelines, this photo of Kennedy eating a dog comes to mind. But he's Irish, not Chinese, so it is OK.

RFK Jr. barbequeing a dog

Between the childless cat ladies and people eating dogs, the Republicans seem to have not gotten the message that Americans love their pets. Then there is all the talk about Hannibal Lecter. Weird. (V)

An Estimated 58 Million People Watched the Debate at Home on Network TV

An estimated 58 million people watched the debate on Tuesday. This is 28% more than watched the Trump-Biden debate in June. ABC got 19 million viewers, NBC got 10 million, Fox News got 9 million, MSNBC got 6 million, CBS got 6 million, Fox got 5 million, CNN got 4 million and Fox Business got 295K. These figures don't include streaming or people watching at bars and other locations out of the home. The total number of viewers is estimated at 67 million.

What might be the most important of all these numbers is that 9 million Fox News viewers watched it. It doesn't matter if every man, woman, and nonbinary person in San Francisco watched the debate. There aren't going to be a lot of Trump voters in Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's home district. But some Fox News fans who watched Trump act anything but presidential may be having second thoughts about him now.

Although more than the Biden-Trump debate got, this is nowhere near a record. The first Trump-Clinton debate in 2016 drew 84 million viewers. The Trump-Biden debates in 2020 averaged 68 million. (V)

Johnson Postpones Kicking the Can Down the Road

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) knows that if he can't get at least a temporary budget through Congress, the government will shut down in October and Republicans will get the blame. He doesn't want that. Yet he doesn't have the votes for even a stop-gap budget to keep the government financed until after the election. So he has postponed the budget vote again, to next week, hoping to twist enough arms to get it through.

The problem, as usual, is the Freedom Caucus, all of whose members come from districts so red that not only would they not be threatened by shutting the government down, it would actually help them. They won't be easy to win over, so it will require Johnson to deploy all the leadership skills he has. The problem is that they want to add things to the budget bill that are unacceptable to Republicans in swing districts and would never have a chance in the Senate anyway.

One specific thing the FCers want is to include in the budget something called the SAVE Act, which would require people to show proof of citizenship in order to register to vote. The people who don't have such proof are predominantly poor Democrats. Chuck Schumer knows this, so there is no way he will even bring up a bill containing the SAVE Act for a vote. But if the FCers won't vote for the bill unless that is in there, what is Johnson to do to prevent a shutdown, which will hurt many of his members?

He may have to depend on House Democrats for their votes. But that will require making a deal giving them some things they want. FC members will go nuts if he puts a couple of Democratic priorities in the bill. They might even threaten to fire him. Herding cats is no fun. Well, unless you are Nancy Pelosi, maybe. (V)

Race for Leader of the Senate Republican Caucus Heats Up

There is another election in town, but only about 50 or so people are allowed to vote in it. It is the race to become leader of the Senate Republican caucus, be it the majority caucus or minority caucus, depending mostly on what happens in the Montana Senate race. Although turtles live very long, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) may be nearing the end of the road and is vacating his position as minority leader as of Jan. 3, 2025. He probably won't run for reelection in 2026. So the race to replace him is on, both in the Senate and in Kentucky.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) wants to replace him. Apparently nobody has had the nerve to tell Scott that if it weren't for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), he would be the most hated member of the Senate. And it definitely is a bipartisan thing. Republicans hate him as much as Democrats do. Scott is the richest member of the Senate, by far, with a net worth of $260 million. But money can't buy you love in the Senate (or a lot of other places). About a dozen Republican senators are worth over $10 million, but only two Democratic senators (Mark Warner, D-VA, and Michael Bennet, D-CO) are.

The real contenders are a pair of Jacks—no, make that a pair of Johns. Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) both want the job badly. Both are well-known and well-liked by their colleagues. While buying votes in general elections is frowned upon, in the cozy world of Senate politics it is welcomed. So Thune just broke a record by giving $4 million from his campaign fund to the NRSC to help fellow Republican senators get reelected. He hopes they will be grateful when the time comes for the vote on caucus leader in December. The previous record for the biggest gift by a senator to the NRSC was $2 million—when Thune gave that amount to the NRSC in 2016. What a generous fellow! With $18 million in his war chest, he can afford it. Besides, in South Dakota, as long as you don't shoot your dog in the head, any Republican is guaranteed reelection.

Cornyn is not as generous as Thune because Texas is not as red as South Dakota and it is far more expensive to campaign there than in South Dakota. So what he is doing is promising to fight efforts to abolish the filibuster in the event that Democrats control the Senate in January. That will take some serious diplomacy and he'll have to figure out something to offer Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). That won't be easy.

But money and promises aside, the Senate caucuses are still pretty clubby and personality matters a lot. To win a leadership position, a candidate has to have many friends in his caucus. That's what really matters.

Interestingly enough, although Senate Republicans oppose ranked-choice voting in elections, they effectively use it themselves. Scott will probably get a few votes in round 1 of voting. If neither John has a majority, Scott will be eliminated and the Republican senators will then vote again. (V)

Problems with the Mail Could Disrupt the Election--Again

Louis DeJoy is still postmaster general and the problems with the mail are still with us. They could disrupt the election (again) by causing absentee ballots to be delayed so much that they miss the arrival deadline and are not counted. State and local officials are aware of the problem and have warned the USPS, but to no avail. They have also cited examples of properly addressed election mail being returned to them as undeliverable. To be sure that the ballot arrives on time, absentee voters have to mail their ballot weeks in advance or physically bring it to an official dropbox or election office, which is more work for the voter. Failures in the postal system threaten to disenfranchise some voters. Since DeJoy knows that more Democrats than Republicans vote by mail, he seems to be in no hurry to fix the USPS.

A recent letter from election officials to DeJoy included the passage: "We implore you to take immediate and tangible corrective action to address the ongoing performance issues with USPS election mail service. Failure to do so will risk limiting voter participation and trust in the election process." DeJoy has not responded to the letter. According to its own claims, the USPS will deliver every first-class letter within five business days at most. But secretaries of state have observed mail dated and postmarked more than 5 days before its arrival date.

The ironic part of this is that the problem is worse in rural areas and states, and in those places, the vote is predominantly Republican. However, in addition to disenfranchising some voters, failure to deliver ballots on time could reduce faith in elections for all voters. (V)

Project 2025 Would Change America Drastically

The Democrats produced a large prop book labeled "Project 2025" for their convention. They said it was terrible. Donald Trump claims not to know what is in it, which is odd since it's his former staffers who wrote most of it. That is, 78% of the authors worked in his administration and the rest might well work in another one, if he wins. Steven Rattner, a long-time Wall Street financier who understands big numbers and who structured the 2009 bailout that saved the American auto industry, has now read it carefully and written a guest essay in The New York Times that describes some of the major ways it would change the country. Here is a brief summary.

These are only some of the "highlights." The Project 2025 plan runs 900 pages and every page is crammed with ideas that would reshape the government in thousands of ways, all of them carefully designed to benefit conservatives and, especially, rich conservatives. (V)

There Will Be 150 Ballot Measures in November

This November, voters in 41 states will have one or more ballot measures to vote on. They cover a huge range of subjects, from abortion to trophy hunting. Some were citizen initiatives but others were put on the ballot by state legislatures for approval (often because the state Constitution requires that for certain things).

For example, many Republican-controlled state legislatures don't like citizen initiatives, so they put measures on the ballot that would get rid of these things or at least make them much more difficult and expensive. Groups that use ballot initiatives to get around gerrymandered Republican-controlled legislatures are especially concerned about measures that try to limit direct democracy using future initiatives. They will try to defeat these. Another topic that will get a lot of attention is abortion, where there is an initiative in 10 states. Here are some of the others:

In short, November will see a large number of issues downballot this year. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Virginia is back to normal after a bit of a scare for Democrats while Biden was the expected nominee. If the Wisconsin poll holds, it could be a bellwether. Keep on eye on Wisconsin.

State Kamala Harris Donald Trump Start End Pollster
Virginia 46% 36% Aug 26 Sep 06 Virginia Commonwealth U.
Wisconsin 52% 48% Aug 28 Sep 05 Marquette Law School

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is running ahead of Hovde in her reelection campaign. Maybe folks in the Badger State prefer someone who was born and raised in Madison, WI, and has served three terms in the state Assembly, seven terms in the U.S. House, and two terms in the U.S. Senate to a banker who lives in California. Could she help Harris? Coattails work both ways.

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 52% Eric Hovde 47% Aug 28 Sep 05 Marquette Law School

* Denotes incumbent


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