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New polls: (None)
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GOP pickups: AZ
Happy Labor Day. Have a few hot dogs. Tomorrow it's back to work.
We Are Now Tracking the Senate Races
Starting today we are tracking the Senate as well as the presidency. We now know the Senate candidates in all states except Massachusetts and Rhode Island and it doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate in those places. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will win in landslides no matter who the Republicans are.
To see the Senate map and detailed information about all 34 Senate races, use the Click for Senate link in the blue bar above the map or bookmark www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Senate/senate_races.html.
There have been 145 Senate polls from reliable pollsters so far this year and they have all been entered into the database. You can download all the data in various formats using the button above the map legend. It's going to be a squeaker.
As you can see above, there is one tie at the moment. When you look at the Senate map, it may not be obvious at first where it is. It's Maryland. The most recent poll has Angela Alsobrooks (D) and Larry Hogan (R) tied at 46% apiece. The Republican pickups are Montana and West Virginia.
Assuming Alsobrooks ultimately wins in deep-blue Maryland, the Democrats will have 49 seats in the Senate. When Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) loses or retires, the Democrats will lose a seat, but they will get one back when Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) loses or retires. That puts the Democrats at 49. In the long run, the Democrats can probably take back the seat of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), putting them at their ceiling of 50, and that is assuming they can hang onto their four seats in Arizona and Georgia, which is not a given. There are two ways for the Democrats to get a permanent majority. First, turn North Carolina blue, like Virginia. Second, get the trifecta, abolish the filibuster, and make D.C. and Puerto Rico states.
We have added two new links to the menu to the left of the map: tipping-point state for Senate and Graphs of Senate polls. To get an overview of how the Senate races are developing, you might want to check them out. They can bring you up to speed on the Senate quickly. (V)
Democrats Are Enthusiastic
There are plenty of horse-race polls, and we report on them daily, but sometimes other polls are also interesting. In particular, for years Gallup has been asking voters: "Are you more enthusiastic about voting this year than in past years?" With so much data, comparisons are possible. This year, Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof, with 78% of respondents saying they are more enthusiastic about voting than in the past. With Republicans, it is only 64%, Enthusiasm usually translates into high turnout from the party's base. Here is a graph of enthusiasm since 2000:
The current Democratic enthusiasm is the highest ever recorded for either party for a general election, even more than it was to elect Barack Obama in 2008. This almost certainly means Democrats are enthusiastic about having someone to vote for, not just someone to vote against, and could be a predictor or a very high turnout and a blue wave. The only time enthusiasm was slightly higher (79%) was during the 2008 Democratic primary. Republican enthusiasm has never been above 70%. (V)
Trump Will Vote No on Amendment 4
Florida has a ballot measure, Amendment 4, in November that would guarantee the right to an abortion. For weeks, reporters have been asking Donald Trump how he will vote on it. He has been evasive on this. Last Thursday, he gave a hint that he would vote for the measure. This made the anti-abortion activists beyond angry and they started to threaten to withhold their votes for him and vote against Kamala Harris instead. (That's the same thing as voting for Trump, but it sounds meaner). The pressure on him quickly ramped up to the point where he couldn't take it anymore. On Friday, he caved and said he would vote no on 4.
This solves one problem but creates a new one. The anti-abortion activists are now happy, but a large majority of Americans are pro-choice and now Kamala Harris is going to bash him over the head with "Trump wants abortions banned after 6 weeks," which is what the law is now in Florida. She is also going to claim that if the Republicans capture Congress, they will pass a bill banning all abortions nationwide and Trump will sign it.
When Harris starts running ads saying Trump will ban abortion nationwide, he is going to have to respond. If he responds by saying he won't sign any such bill, the anti-abortion activists will jump on his back again. He would love for the issue to go away, but Harris is not going to let that happen. It is going to be a centerpiece of her campaign and he is going to have to deal with it. He has the bad luck that his base is divided on the issue whereas hers is virtually 100% pro-choice. There is not much he can do about it.
And the problem is getting worse. The anti-choice folks largely want no abortions at all, starting at fertilization. But most Americans want it legal and available at least until the point of viability and in some cases beyond—for example, to preserve the physical or mental health of the mother. For more and more people, especially women, abortion is moving up the list to become one of the top issues. Some recent polling is showing that for women under 45, abortion is now the top issue. With Harris talking about abortion constantly, voters are not likely to forget it.
What is ironic is how the tables have turned. It used to be that abortion was a great motivator for Republicans. They got what they wanted: Roe v. Wade was overturned. Now abortion is a great motivator for Democrats. (V)
Harris Will Go to Counties Where She Knows She Will Be Crushed
When Democrats campaign in Georgia, they usually make a beeline for Fulton, DeKalb, and Cobb Counties in the Atlanta metro area. To them, that's Georgia. Kamala Harris is planning to break the mold, something Democrats from other states, such as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), have long urged. She is already campaigning in deep red Georgia counties she knows she will lose and lose badly. Why is she doing something this foolish?
She is doing it because a vote is a vote. Getting 100 more votes in a red rural county is just as valuable as getting 100 more votes in Atlanta. What matters in all statewide races is the total number of votes, not where they come from. Harris, like Fetterman, knows that the absence of yard signs and bumper stickers in rural counties does not mean there are no Democrats there. It just means the Democrats there are hiding from their neighbors. They may also be demoralized and not vote. But if the campaign shows up and shows interest in them, it is possible to energize them and get them to the polls. This is how Fetterman won. This is what Harris is trying with her bus tour of Georgia and will try in Pennsylvania and North Carolina as well. It is an unusual strategy in a presidential campaign, but Harris is apparently going to give it a shot. As that famous political strategist Woody Allen said: "90% of success is just showing up." Harris plans to show up. (V)
Liz Cheney May Yet Endorse Harris
Before the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris announced that a very high profile Republican would be speaking there. Many people were expecting it to be Liz Cheney. But it was former representative Adam Kinzinger. Cheney didn't go to the convention.
But that may have been a tactical move rather than a strategic one. She is just as determined to defeat Donald Trump now as she was when she was a member of the Jan. 6 Committee. Sources close to her are saying that her absence at the DNC was because she thinks she could have a bigger impact later on. It's true that with dozens of speakers at the DNC, she would be just one of dozens of people on stage and might not get much notice. But if she gives a full-throated endorsement of Harris in September, that will be front-page news all over the country and dominate the news cycle for a day or two.
So far, Cheney has been completely silent on the Harris campaign, except to say that Joe Biden showed courage in dropping out. In the past, Cheney called Trump "depraved" and "unstable." Her silence may change soon, although Cheney is playing her cards close to her vest at the moment. People who know her say she is not going to sit this one out, but she hasn't decided exactly what to do yet, or when.
If Cheney, a life-long Republican and daughter of Republican vice president Dick Cheney were to come out and fully endorse Harris, that could have a bigger effect than any other endorsement this side of Taylor Swift. In particular, she could give the million Republicans in the swing states who voted for Nikki Haley "permission" to vote for a Democrat this one time since no one could possibly question her bona fides as a deeply conservative Republican. During her three terms in the House, Cheney opposed abortion, same-sex marriage, and Russia. She supported the military, Israel's plans to annex the West Bank, and waterboarding suspected terrorists. She also has five children, making it hard for Sen. J.D. ("mothers should get extra votes") Vance (R-OH) to dismiss her as a childless cat lady with no skin in the game. In addition, she has been married for 30 years to Philip Perry, who was a high-ranking lawyer in the George W. Bush administration. (V)
Tim Walz Is Going Home
Kamala Harris doesn't have a lot of hope that she can win statewide in deep-red Nebraska. But Nebraska is one of the two states that awards some of its electoral votes by congressional district and NE-02 (Omaha) has a PVI of EVEN and is winnable for the right Democrat. Barack Obama won NE-02 in 2008 and Joe Biden won it in 2020. In a tight race, that one EV could matter. There are scenarios where the candidate who wins NE-02 wins the White House.
Harris knows this and has a plan. In fact, she has a secret weapon. in the battle for NE-02: Tim Walz. Walz was born in West Point, NE, which is about 55 miles northwest of Omaha. He wears flannel, goes hunting and speaks Nebraskan. While Harris is certainly not going to campaign in Omaha, she is going to send Walz there from time to time to act folksy and try to convince people that she is not some kind of crazy California Communist. Coming from a native son, that might actually work.
Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said that many people think of Nebraska as a flyover state Democrats don't care about. But having a member of the national ticket show up and campaign helps dispel that image. She said that Walz and his ties to Nebraska are what Nebraska Democrats have most asked her about.
The NE-02 electoral vote is not the only reason Walz will spend some time in Nebraska campaigning. The NE-02 House seat is currently occupied by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). With that PVI of EVEN, that seat is in play. When in Nebraska, Walz will also campaign with Democratic state senator Tony Vargas, who is trying to unseat Bacon. Given how close the House is, that race alone makes it worth Walz' while to visit the state a few times this fall. (And yes, members of the Nebraska unicameral legislature are called "senators" because there used to be a state House but it was abolished in 1934 as a cost-cutting measure during the Depression, leaving only the Senate behind). (V)
RFK Jr. Will Be on the Ballot in Three Swing States
It's September now. And do you know what that means? States need to print their ballots for early voters. That means deadlines for getting on and getting off ballots are zipping by. In Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, those deadlines have passed already. So if you were planning to run for president and want to get on those ballots, you are out of luck. Sorry. Also, if you are already on them and want to get off them, sorry.
For most people, those deadlines don't mean a lot. But for two people they mean a lot: Robert Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump. Kennedy almost certainly entered the race with the intention of pulling votes from Joe Biden in order to help Donald Trump. That might have worked, except that when Biden dropped out, all the Democrats who supported Kennedy because they thought Biden was too old jumped ship and supported Kamala Harris. That meant that Kennedy's remaining supporters were actually Republicans who didn't like Trump's style. Recent polls showed that Kennedy was hurting Trump, so he tried to drop out to avoid hurting Trump.
Unfortunately, the deadline for dropping out passed before Kennedy dropped out and now his name will appear on the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, three big swing states. The ballots have already been sent to the printer, so even if Kennedy makes the ultimate sacrifice to help Trump (committing harakiri), he will still appear on the ballots there. He is going to ask the courts to get him off, but there is hardly any time left.
Will people vote for Kennedy in those states? We expect some people will. There are three cases to consider. First some low-information voters may not know that Kennedy dropped out and Kennedy voters tend to be low-information voters. They will merrily vote for him because they are antivaxxers or otherwise like him. Second, some voters may know he dropped out but want to register a protest and they don't like any of the other minor candidates. Third, there may be some voters who basically combine cases one and two. Like most presidential candidates, Kennedy's campaign is officially suspended, not ended. And he has encouraged people in non-competitive states to vote for him to show their opposition to vaccines or whatever. Protest voters who don't know their home states are swing states might vote for Kennedy, misunderstanding his instructions.
There actually is some data on this kind of situation. In the 2022 Senate race in Alaska, Republican Buzz Kelley got 2.13% in the nonpartisan primary and was one of the four candidates who qualified for the November election. He later withdrew and nevertheless got 2.89% in November, so there were voters who did not vote for him when he was an actual candidate but voted for him when he wasn't.
In 2020, in the South Carolina Senate race, the Constitution Party nominee, Bill Bledsoe, dropped out and endorsed Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Despite not being in the race, Bledsoe got 1.3% of the vote.
In the 2018 Alaska gubernatorial race, independent Bill Walker withdrew and endorsed the Democrat. Nevertheless, he got 2.03% of the vote. Also in that year, in the special election in TX-27, Republican Bech Bruun withdrew but still got 4.3% in the nonpartisan jungle primary.
In the 2014 gubernatorial race, independent Joe Visconti withdrew 2 days before the election, when he was polling in the range of 3-8% and endorsed the Republican. He got 1% anyway.
In other words, there is quite a bit of data showing that candidates who have withdrawn can get a couple of percent anyway. In 2016, Trump won Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin by 0.23%, 3.66%, and 0.77%, respectively. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.78%, lost North Carolina by 1.34%, and won Wisconsin by 0.63%. If Kennedy costs Trump 1-2% in any of these three states, that could be enough to flip the state to Kamala Harris.
If the Democrats want to engage in a little friendly ratf**king, they could ask some wealthy Democrat to run ads in these states telling people to vote for Kennedy to show their opposition to vaccine mandates. It might well work and nearly all the votes would be coming out of Trump's hide. (V)
In a Number of States, One or Two Seats Matter
Races for seats in state legislatures rarely get much attention, but some of them are really important. If Democrats in Arizona can flip two seats in the state Senate and two in the state House, for example, they will have the trifecta.
And sometimes a single seat matters even when one party has a huge majority. In North Carolina, it takes a three-fifths majority to override the governor's veto. Due to extensive gerrymandering, Republicans now have exactly a three-fifths majority in both the state Senate (30-20) and state House (72-48) and have been using it to run rampant over Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). If the Democrats can pick up a single seat in either the 50-seat Senate or the 120-seat House, they can block the legislature from steamrolling North Carolina AG Josh Stein (D) if he is elected governor, as seems likely. Just one seat in either chamber changes everything.
Similar scenarios are playing out in other states as well. In Nevada, Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) vetoed a record 75 bills in 2023. Democrats overrode him in the House on all of them, but are one vote short of a supermajority in the Senate. If they can pick up one seat in the Senate, they will go to town and run the state without his input.
In Kansas, Gov. Laura Kelly (D) has vetoed bills on abortion, criminal justice, and other issues, only to see the legislature override all her vetoes. If Democrats can pick up two seats in the state House or three in the state Senate, then her vetoes will stick.
In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a two-seat majority in the state House, so they can barely pass bills, but Republicans control the Senate, so deadlock reigns. If the Republicans can pick up two seats in the House, they can flood the governor's desk with bills, but he will veto them all and they can't do anything about it.
In short, there are a number of state legislatures where flipping one or two seats really means a lot, but most of this is flying under the radar for most voters. (V)
The Two Defamed Georgia Election Works Are Going after Giuliani's Assets
As readers likely know, a jury ordered Rudy Giuliani to pay two Georgia election workers he defamed $148 million. Giuliani filed for bankruptcy to try to avoid judgment day, but the ploy failed and the judge threw out the case. Now judgment day is imminent. On Friday, the two workers, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, requested the judge to put Giuliani in receivership so they can formally seize his assets, including his condos in Manhattan and Palm Beach, his Mercedes-Benz, bank accounts, cash, jewelry and other assets. While you might at first be thinking, "Jewelry, what jewelry?," Giuliani owns three New York Yankees World Series rings. They are probably worth $20,000 to $40,000 each, maybe more at auction. He also owns over 20 valuable watches and some sports memorabilia. The total of his assets is probably not more than $10 million, though, so Freeman and Moss will never get $148 million from him. But getting $10 million and making Giuliani a pauper might be sweet after what he did to them.
The judge may decide to wait until Giuliani's appeal is heard or he could grant the request and stay it until the appeal has been decided. The judge was already made it abundantly clear that he is tired of Giuliani's stalling and refusal to cooperate, so he could also appoint a receiver and instruct him to make an inventory of Giuliani's property, seize it so Giuliani can't hide any of it, but not sell anything until the appeals have run their course.
As we have noted before, Giuliani is a defendant in criminal cases in Georgia and Arizona. If his property is seized, he may not have the money to pay a lawyer in either case and may be stuck with an inexperienced public defender who doesn't have enough time to handle such complex cases. This could put him under pressure to make a deal with the prosecutors, throwing his codefendants (who, in Georgia, include Donald Trump), under the bus in return for a light sentence. (V)
Another Primary Tomorrow
Massachusetts holds its congressional primary tomorrow. Several Republicans are duking it out for the right to be crushed like a bug by Elizabeth Warren for the Senate. It hardly matters which one it is. Why anyone would bother is beyond us. Warren is going to get at least 60% of the vote.
There is a competitive primary in MA-08 for the right to challenge Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA), who is running for his 12th full term. The Boston-based district is D+15 and Lynch has $1.1 million in the bank. None of the Republicans have raised any money. Lynch could well decide to donate some of his money to Democrats in tight races elsewhere and make some new friends. It won't affect his election at all. We'll let you guess how this one will turn out.
Next week, Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island hold the final primaries of the cycle. Talk about a short general-election campaign. We were tempted to say that the general-election ballots will already have been printed before the primary, but that is impossible, of course.
On Sept. 18, there is a special election in NJ-10 to fill the seat of the late Donald Payne Jr. The district is D+30 so another Democrat will fill out Payne's term until Jan. 3, 2025. (V)
Today's Senate Polls
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has been leading by large margins all year. She's safe. What we don't understand is why the presidential race is close. Can there really be that many Trump/Rosen voters? If a voter loves Trump, he or she will surely swoon over Brown who is even trumpier than Trump. We are seeing this effect all over the country: the presidential race is close but the Democrat is running away with the Senate race. Something is wrong with this picture, but we don't know what it is. With the country so polarized, we find it odd that the Senate and and presidential races are so different in so many states. Look at the Senate graphs to see why we are scratching our heads. In Arizona, Michigan, Neavda, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Democrat has had a substantial and consistent lead all year, yet Harris is not killing it in those states. What's going on here? (V)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen* | 50% | Sam Brown | 38% | Aug 07 | Aug 14 | Strategies 360 |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 46% | Aug 27 | Aug 29 | Wick |
* Denotes incumbent
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