Previous | Next | Senate page | Menu
New polls: FL
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: AZ NV
Harris Releases Her Medical Report
It was inevitable and, sure enough, it happened. Kamala Harris released her medical records Saturday and challenged Donald Trump to release his. Her report was written by Col. Joshua Simmons of the White House military office. It says the 59-year-old Harris is healthy although she has seasonal allergies and a mild skin condition (urticaria). She is also nearsighted and uses contact lenses that correct her vision to 20-20.
Harris takes a vitamin D3 supplement, and sometimes uses a nasal spray and eye drops. Her diet is "very healthy" and she does not smoke and uses alcohol only occasionally and in moderation. She also does annual mammograms and is up to date on colonoscopies.
Simmons also noted that Harris' mother's family has a history of colon cancer. What Harris doesn't have is also notable. She does not have diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, cardiac disease, pulmonary disease, neurological disorders, cancer or osteoporosis. The doctor's summary was: "She possesses the physical and mental resiliency required to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency." CNN's chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, was more impressed by all the things Harris does not have than what she does have and agreed she is "fit for duty."
In the end, this is something of an empty gesture. When was the last time a candidate issued a health report that said: "Yeah, they just aren't up to the job," or even "If you elect them, it MIGHT work out, but keep your fingers crossed!" Sometimes, a clean bill of health is truthful. We tend to suspect that's the case here, but we make that guess only because Harris is fairly young and looks to be fit. Sometimes, a clean bill of health involves a bit of carefully crafted spin. And sometimes, a clean bill of health is an outright lie, or close to it.
So, the real consequence of issuing a health report is not to tell the American people that their president or wannabe president is hale and hearty. Every health report says that. No, the real consequence is that it puts pressure on the OTHER candidate to talk about THEIR health. If the opponent leans old and/or infirm, that is a ball they would rather not have in their court. Think, for example, John McCain in 2008, whose hard life as a POW and age raised legitimate questions about his fitness to handle the world's toughest job (and recall, despite not being subjected to the rigors of the presidency, he died shortly after a hypothetical second term would have ended).
In other words, it is now Trump's turn. When he was president, his then-doctor, now-Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) wrote a letter so glowing and absurd that almost every doctor who was asked about it guessed that Trump probably wrote it himself. Last year, Trump posted a letter from his current doctor, Bruce Aronwald, stating that his overall health is excellent. He has not released an actual medical report this year, despite the fact that if elected, he would be the oldest president ever, and his verbal stumbles of late suggest he may have cognitive issues. Given Trump's age and tendency to ramble incoherently, Harris will no doubt hammer on his unwillingness to be examined by a neutral doctor who is given advance permission to release the entire report on what he finds after examining Trump. (V)
Musk Has Spent $80 Million for Trump So Far
Elon Musk has decided that running eX-Twitter, Tesla, SpaceX, and The Boring Company is, well, boring. So he has decided to get involved in politics to help Donald Trump. He has already tossed $80 million in the pot and we have 3 more weeks to go. Much of that has gone to a GOTV operation.
In addition, Musk has been promoting crazy conspiracy theories on eX-Twitter that bash Kamala Harris. He has also joined Trump at rallies and is paying people $47 to sign a petition in support of the First and Second Amendments. Back in the old days, billionaires like Bill Gates and Warren Buffet stayed out of politics. Even a billionaire megadonor like Sheldon Adelson, who gave the Republicans big-time money because he liked their position on Israel, didn't interfere with their campaigns. Musk is much more meddlesome, and talks to Trump multiple times a week.
What is Musk's game? Is he aiming for a Cabinet position in a Trump administration? Nobody is saying. Of course, there could be a downside if Trump loses. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Musk asked Carlson about a possible Trump loss: "How long do you think my prison sentence will be?" Kamala Harris is very unlikely to just throw Musk in prison because he supported Trump, but she could pick a commissioner of the IRS known to favor extremely vigorous auditing of very rich people with the full intention of putting them on trial if they violated any tax laws, as an example. Rich guys like Musk often play fast and loose when they file their taxes, and if the commissioner assigns enough top people to audit Musk, they might find something. In addition, as commander in chief, Kamala Harris would have final say on military contracts. If she wanted to interfere with Pentagon procurement, she could order the top brass to avoid giving any contracts to Musk's companies. The latter move wouldn't be at all unreasonable, not as a punishment for supporting Trump, but instead for the reason that someone who works to undermine democracy shouldn't be rewarded with fat government contracts.
In addition to generously funding Trump, Musk is also pouring money into tight House races. This would not be needed if all he wants is a Cabinet position. He has taken to calling himself Dark MAGA. It is possible that all Musk really wants is a Republican trifecta so Trump can cut taxes for rich people and drop the various investigations of Tesla, etc. that are currently percolating. (V)
Democrats Attack Jill Stein
In addition to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, four minor candidates are on the ballot in multiple states (and a few very small parties are on the ballot in a couple of states). The major minor candidates on the ballot in many states are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein of the Green Party (GP), Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party (LP), and the independent Cornel West (I). Here is a map showing where they have made the ballot:
Who do the minor candidates hurt? It's a mixed bag. Kennedy and Oliver generally hurt Trump; Stein and West generally hurt Harris. Kennedy is on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan. Oliver is on the ballot in the most places, including all the swing states. Stein is on the ballot in all the swing states except Nevada. West is on the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina.
Kennedy and Oliver could hurt Trump in the northern states, especially since the LP often gets at least 1%, often more. In 2020, the LP got 1.2% of the total vote. In an election as close as this one could be, 1.2% could be enough to swing a state. In 2020, the GP got 0.26% of the vote, but the candidate then was Howie Hawkins, a total unknown. In 2016, Stein was the GP nominee and she got 1.07% while the LP candidate got 3.3%.
Do such small numbers matter? Well, in 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia by 0.23% and he won Arizona by 0.30%. By comparison, Wisconsin was a relative landslide with Biden winning by 0.63%. So, to answer the question, "yes." The Democrats, at least, have taken notice and are now running an ad attacking Stein as a spoiler:
Stein knows very well that she is a spoiler because she probably caused Hillary Clinton to lose the 2016 election. She's fine with Trump winning due to its educational value. She wants to teach the Democrats a lesson: If they don't adopt the GP platform, they will lose. If Harris can win without adopting the GP platform, that neuters the GP. The ad basically says that a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump. While Stein doesn't care if Trump wins, some of her supporters probably do and an active campaign to paint a vote for her as a vote for Trump could dissuade some of them.
So far there are no ads against Cornel West, probably because he is less well known and is not a candidate of any party (unlike Stein and Oliver). He's just on a big personal ego trip. If he were interested in policy instead of just glorifying himself, he could have gone to Stein and offered to drop out and support her in return for the #2 slot on her ticket. So far, the Republicans are not running ads against Oliver and certainly not against Kennedy, who is now a Trump supporter because he is under the illusion that Trump might offer him a good job in his administration. It is possible that Trump might offer Kennedy the ambassadorship to Nauru, an island nation in the middle of the Pacific Ocean consisting entirely of bird poop, both as a symbolic gesture and to get rid of him. A better job than that, probably not. (V)
Will We Know the Winner on Nov. 5? Don't Count on It
Many people have already voted but, due to various state laws, we are unlikely to know the winner of the presidential election on Nov. 5. Maybe not even on Nov. 6 if it really is as close as the polls say it is. Much of the problem is due to Republican-controlled state legislatures that want the election to devolve into chaos to provide cover for Donald Trump if he tries to claim victory on Nov. 5 and is then ultimately defeated. The biggest issue is whether absentee ballots can be pre-processed or even fully processed before Election Day. If the process of verifying the signatures on the envelopes may not begin before 7 a.m. on Election Day, there is no conceivable way they can all be verified, the envelopes opened, and the ballots taken out, prepped, and scanned by midnight. Here is the lay of the land by (swing) state:
- Arizona: Although Arizona is in the Mountain Time Zone, its results may be available
long before some of the swing states in the Eastern Time Zone because Arizona law allows processing of all ballots as
soon as they are received and they can be counted as soon as they have been processed. The results may not be released
until the polls close, though. If a large number of ballots are dropped off in person on Election Day, that could slow
the process down.
- Georgia: Not as good as Arizona, but still pretty good. Signatures are verified as the
absentee ballots come in, but opening the envelopes may not begin until the third Monday before Election Day. That is to say,
Oct. 21. This means that all the absentee ballots arriving before Election Day will be counted before Election Day.
Polls close early (7 p.m.) on Election Day. The combination of precounting the absentee ballots and an early closing
time in the Eastern Time Zone means that Georgia will probably be the first swing state to report a winner. If it is a
blowout either way, that could set the tone for the rest of the night.
- Michigan: In Michigan, in all but the smallest jurisdictions, ballots can be preprocessed
and counted starting 8 days before the election. Since polls close at 8 p.m., an hour later than Georgia, most likely
Georgia will report first, but Michigan will probably be the second swing state to report. If the same candidate wins
both of them, that candidate will probably be in for a good night. However, a Harris (Michigan)/Trump (Georgia) split
is probably more likely.
- Nevada: Signature verification can begin as soon as ballots are received and counting can
begin 15 days before the election, so absentee ballots will largely be counted before Election Day, as in Arizona. But
since Nevada, unlike Arizona, is an all-mail-in-election state, its results might be available even before Arizona's.
That said, the Silver State is one time zone west of Arizona, and no state can release results until the polls
are closed, so maybe not.
- North Carolina: Oh boy. Hurricane Helene battered the western portion of the state, so
the U.S. Supreme Court gets to call the winner. Not officially (yet), but there are sure to be endless lawsuits due to
the difficulty in voting for people in the 25 affected counties. Other than that, the state isn't so bad. Absentee
ballots may be verified and put into the tabulating machines 5 weeks before Election Day. Polls close later than in
Georgia (7:30 p.m.) but the big problem here is going to be the western part of the state. Still, fairly early on, there
will be a big clue how things are going because the biggest cities (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and
Winston-Salem) were not hit by the hurricane and it will be possible to compare their vote totals with 2020.
Harris must surge here to win the state and the presence or absence of a surge will be known before the
western counties report.
- Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania introduced early in-person voting only in 2020, so there is
not much experience with it. Unfortunately, early in-person ballots are considered absentee ballots, and these may not be
counted until 7 a.m. on Election Day. At least there is no need to verify signatures and open envelopes for the early
votes. Still, in a large state that may determine the winner, and where every vote may count, it could take a couple of
days to count all the ballots, unless there is an unexpected blowout.
- Wisconsin: As we note above, Wisconsin was the third closest state in 2020 (after Georgia
and Arizona). Like Pennsylvania, preprocessing of the ballots may not begin in Wisconsin until the polls open on
Election Day. If everything ends up depending on Wisconsin, we likely won't know for a while who won the Badger State.
Wisconsin election officials have begged the state legislature to change the law so they can at least pre-process the
ballots and have them stacked up, ready to put in the counting machines at 7 a.m. on Election Day,
but Republicans in the legislature have no interest in doing so.
The bottom line here is that Georgia will probably come in first, then Michigan, then the eastern part of North Carolina. If there is a huge blue wave, it will show up in the big cities there and that will be a big clue how the state will go. If there is no blue wave, that will also be obvious fairly early.
If you want to know how ballot processing works in all 50 states, this page from the National Conference of State Legislatures has the full story. Poll closing times are here. (V)
The GOP Has Become the Party of Welfare Recipients
Ronald Reagan loved to characterize the Democrats as the party of welfare queens. He said the blue team was the party of unmarried Black women in inner cities with half a dozen children from half a dozen (absent) fathers who lived off the government teat. He was so good at that and it sunk in so well that Bill Clinton ended up abolishing the version of welfare that Reagan was talking about (AFDC).
Boy how things have changed. Residents of 53% of America's counties now get at least 25% of their income from the government. They are dependent on programs from SNAP (food stamps) to Medicaid to Social Security. The vast majority of them are rural counties that vote for Republicans. In essence, they are kept afloat by transfer payments from rich blue counties. If the blue states managed to take control of the government and cut off all the transfer payments, many people in half the counties would starve.
This wasn't always the case. In 1980, only 2% of the counties got at least 25% of their income from government programs. In 2000, it was 10%. That number has grown under both Democratic and Republican administrations for years, as shown in the graph below.
Are the Democrats now screaming about Republican welfare queens? No. They are trying to make inroads into rural areas, and telling the people there that they ought to get off the dole and support themselves probably isn't the best way to do it. The Republicans' emphasis on rugged individualism is nice in theory, but doesn't actually hold up for their own voters. (V)
The Fake Electors Are Back
You might think that being a fake elector was a one-shot deal. You try to steal an electoral vote, fail at it, then go back home and that's it (except maybe for the indictment, trial, and possible prison part). Well, no. A number of the 2020 fake electors have not gone gentle into that good night.
In fact, nearly one-sixth of the 2020 fake electors are at it again, in various forms. In particular, 14 of the electors who took part in Donald Trump's scheme to overturn the electoral vote in 2020 are listed as Republican electors again this year. If Trump wins any of their states, they will get to cast a true electoral vote this year. If he loses their states, who knows what they will try to do.
Jessica Marsden, counsel at the nonprofit group Protect Democracy, said: "The fact that the Republican Party is going back to these individuals, despite their participation in the scheme to overturn the 2020 election, is yet another indication that the party has not repudiated the efforts to overthrow the election. In fact, in many ways, it is doubling down on it—starting with nominating former President Trump as their standard-bearer."
Trump fully understands this. In fact, he made one of the fake Nevada electors, Michael McDonald, a long-time GOP state chairman, a senior campaign adviser. This is a different Michael McDonald from the Florida professor who studies early voting patterns, or the musician who annoyed the entire staff at Smart Tech in The 40-Year-Old Virgin. The world is apparently overstuffed with Michael McDonalds. We dare not think about what the Trumpy Michael McDonald's responsibilities are. Five of the fake Pennsylvania electors are again on the slate of electors this year. So is one of the fake New Mexico electors.
Two states sent a message to the fake electors that got their attention. The Arizona AG indicted the 11 fake electors, who include two state representatives, the executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, and an executive at Turning Point USA. Even though none of them have been put on trial yet, none of them are electors this time. In Wisconsin, a progressive law firm teamed up with the Georgetown University Law Center and sued all 10 fake electors—and won. They had to state that Joe Biden was the true winner in Wisconsin and agreed never to be a Trump elector again. They also agreed to cooperate with the DoJ's investigation of the fake electors scheme.
Nevertheless, some of the fake electors "got away" with it. Fake elector Robert Spindell Jr. is still on the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Despite being criminally indicted, fake elector Stanley Grot is still clerk of the affluent Detroit suburb of Shelby Township and tasked with maintaining the voter rolls and administering this year's election. Another fake Michigan elector, Michele Lundgren, is running for the Michigan House. In Georgia, fake elector Burt Jones ran for lieutenant governor and won. So far, none of the fake electors, whose crime is now almost 4 years old, have been convicted. If the judicial system had to race against a snail, the snail would win by a large margin. (V)
Nevada Is a Tossup--Except for Downballot
Right now, we have Trump leading by 3 points in the Silver State. So, is Nevada becoming a red state? Maybe. If you look at all the polls in Nevada, Trump has been ahead in 24 of them, the Democrat has been ahead in 17 of them, and 4 have been ties. However, if you look at only the polls taken after July 21, when Kamala Harris announced her candidacy, she has been ahead in 13, Trump has been ahead in 4 and two were ties. So, it is fair to say it is a toss-up. Either one of them could win the state.
But downballot, it is a whole different ball of wax. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has been ahead in all 15 Senate polls of Nevada, with leads ranging from a minimum of 8 points to a maximum of 18 points. Not much of a tossup there. One Republican operative said: "Sam Brown has run a very, very, very bad campaign, one of the worst campaigns we've seen in Nevada in a while." He thought that Brown would lose to Rosen by at least 6 or 7 points, even if Trump carries the state.
If Brown loses, he can use the blame-the-wife excuse. In an interview with NBC News earlier this year, his wife admitted to having had an abortion. Brown has had a hard time defending that and reconciling it with his previous support for a Texas law banning all abortions after 20 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. Voters don't like hypocrisy. As a candidate, he has said he won't vote for a nationwide abortion ban. They also don't like flip-flopping, unless Trump does it.
Nevada has four House seats. Three of the districts are swing districts: NV-01 (D+3), NV-03 (D+1), and NV-04 (D+3). All currently have a Democratic incumbent. Despite the close PVIs, the former chair of the Nevada Republican Party, Amy Tarkanian, said of them: "I think the majority of Republicans in the state probably feel hopeless." They could have flipped all of them, but all three challengers are weak and underfunded and it would be a huge upset if any of them won. NV-02 is R+8 and Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) is expected to keep his job easily. (V)
Biden Administration Sues Virginia over Voter-Roll Purge
In August, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) ordered a purge of the voting rolls of people suspected of not being a citizen. Secretary of the Commonwealth Kelly Gee, who was appointed by Youngkin (the position is not an elected one in Virginia), started to carry out the order. The DoJ has now sued Virginia because a 1993 federal law called the National Voter Registration Act states that any mass changes to the voting rolls must be completed no later than 90 days before the next election. But who cares about federal law when there is an election to win?
Maybe it wouldn't be so terrible if noncitizens were removed from the rolls, since they are not allowed to be there in the first place. However, Virginia has done these purges before, and in the past, U.S. citizens have been purged, including some who repeatedly affirmed they were citizens and who provided their Social Security numbers. The federal law was intended to protect these people in a situation when there is no time to go to court to fight the removal.
Naturally, Youngkin objected to the lawsuit. He accused the Biden administration of "filing an unprecedented lawsuit" less than 30 days from the election. Of course, he didn't mention his illegal purge of voters just before an election, which is what triggered the lawsuit.
Alabama tried to do the same thing as Virginia and also got itself sued by the DoJ.
The DoJ has asked voters who believe they have been erroneously removed from the voting rolls to contact the Department through an Internet reporting portal. Kristen Clarke, an assistant AG, said: "The right to vote is the cornerstone of our democracy and the Justice Department will continue to ensure that the rights of qualified voters are protected." (V)
Republicans May Have a Problem with Justice
Yes, some of them, especially Donald Trump, are having problems with the DoJ, but this item is not about that. It is about soon-to-be Sen.-elect Jim Justice (R-WV), the governor of West Virginia until Jan. 3, 2025, when the new Senate convenes.
Although Justice is a sitting governor, he is rarely in Charleston, the state capital. At first, he refused to live in the governor's mansion, despite a state law mandating that. He moved there only after he was sued about it. He is a coal baron and the richest man in the state, and his home is a lot nicer than the governor's mansion. Even now, he is rarely in the capital and often aides can't even reach him. Some observers are wondering whether Justice will buy or rent an apartment in D.C., Maryland, or Virginia, or will just commute from West Virginia. After all, a governor has actual work to do every day and a senator doesn't, especially a junior senator from an impoverished state. If Justice couldn't be bothered doing the work of a governor, will he be bothered to do the much lighter work of a senator? Say what you want about Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), but he made over 95% of the votes in the Senate. He was a full-time senator.
When asked about Justice, Manchin said: "Only thing I know is that amount of time and effort—and you see us running back and forth and running to all different things—takes an awful lot of energy, a lot of time. But I'm hoping he's able to represent the people of West Virginia the way he should, if he becomes elected" (our emphasis). "Hoping." Not even "expecting." West Virginia state Del. Mike Pushkin (D) said: "I don't think anybody in West Virginia honestly believes that Jim Justice is going to show up in Washington, D.C., regularly." Del. Geno Chiarelli (R) said: "He's not always around." The AP managed to get ahold of Justice's schedule in 2019. He rarely met with his own cabinet and was largely absent from the statehouse. Since then, it has gotten worse.
Among other things, Justice is reputed to be in poor health. All of the people interviewed for the linked article brought up his health. One of them said "Big Jim," as he is known, has trouble standing and walking. Some state legislators were speculating that he might not be able to finish his term as governor.
Justice's poor health and lack of interest in governing could turn out to be more than a footnote. Suppose the Senate is split 50-50. That would happen if the Democrats can win just one of Montana, Florida, Texas, and Nebraska and hold all of their other states (except West Virginia). Then if Trump wins and Justice does not show up, nominations and bills could go down 50-49. Sure, Republicans will politely ask him to please buy a beautiful condo in the District, Maryland, or Virginia and show up. Or maybe buy Trump's old hotel and live there. However, a 73-year-old billionaire who is not used to being on the bottom of the totem pole and doesn't even care how his own state is governed, is certainly not used to taking directions from anyone, especially since he can barely walk, didn't really want the job, and will have no power at all in the Senate. If being a senator is too much trouble for Justice (and his ego allows it), he could do a bait-and-switch by resigning from the Senate. Then the governor elected on Nov. 5, most likely Patrick Morrisey (R), could appoint a healthier Republican to replace him.
If Kamala Harris wins and the Republicans control the Senate 51-49 and Justice is a no show, then votes may go 50-49, so all it would take is one Republican defection to confirm nominations and pass bills. In that situation, we could imagine a President Harris negotiating with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) on every nomination, which could result in most nominees being centrist women and being confirmed. Republicans will be loathe to punish Murkowski for fear of her becoming an independent and caucusing with the Democrats.
If Harris wins and the Republicans take the Senate 51-49, there is an outside chance that Harris will offer Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) a cabinet post, probably Dept. of Homeland Security, since she was chair of that Senate committee and knows the material. She is up for reelection in 2026. If she sees popular three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) go down in flames to a carpetbagger from Minnesota due to increased partisanship in the country, the 71-year-old Collins may conclude she is toast in 2026 in blue Maine and decide to end her career as a cabinet officer rather than risk defeat in 2 years. If she took a job in a Harris administration, Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) would appoint her replacement. This scenario is not likely, but is possible. (V)
Today's Presidential Polls
Florida is definitely a red state now.
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Florida | 43% | 49% | Oct 01 | Oct 04 | Mason-Dixon |
Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.
Today's Senate Polls
Florida is so red that even an unpopular senator can win easily.
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Florida | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 41% | Rick Scott* | 48% | Oct 01 | Oct 04 | Mason-Dixon |
* Denotes incumbent
Previous | Next
Main page for smartphones
Main page for tablets and computers