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Sunday Mailbag
There are two people who generated huge responses this week, and neither of them was us. Nope, the champions are D.E. in Lancaster and... Michael McDonald.
Also, it would seem that another hint as to the headline theme is called for. So, we'll note that there was going to be an item headlined "TrumpWatch 2024: And You Thought Nixon Had an Enemies List," but we ran out of time and had to push it back.
Politics: Hurricanes
E.W. in Silver Spring, MD, writes: I'm a meteorologist, although I've never forecasted for a living, I tend to watch the tropics in hurricane season, and look out for major winter storms, so that I can give advice and a heads up to family and friends.
On September 25, I made a far-too-clear warning to the people I know: A storm that developed as rapidly as Helene, but moves towards a major metropolitan area, would be a catastrophic disaster. Helene demonstrated the rapid intensification threat, combined with rugged terrain. It will be years before the Smokey Mountain communities recover.
By Tuesday evening, the Tampa-St. Petersburg area will face an only slightly weaker storm: Milton. It takes about 72 hours to evacuate those who will willingly leave from a major metropolitan area. The time to start evacuations was before the storm was named on Saturday. It will not surprise me if thousands of Floridians are dead by next weekend.
In the 25 years since I went to college to study the atmosphere, I have never seen anything like either of these storms. Since this will happen anyway, hopefully they will serve as a warning that the future climate change many of your readers fear has unquestionably arrived.
Needless to say, getting this advice from a political blog, and a write-in comment at that, is probably one of the worst places to hear this, but if you are within 100 miles of a line passing through Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona Beach, do everything you can to evacuate now. Yes, the forecast could change, but if it doesn't, it may already be too late. People in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas, please pay attention, this system could have a second landfall in your area.
D.L. of Asheville, NC, but in Atlantic Highlands, NJ, writes: I am writing from New Jersey after leaving Asheville last Sunday. While I hadn't considered some of your points about who Helene will affect most, it seems to me that Trump is going to take the biggest hit by far. While Asheville is very liberal, the surrounding areas are deeply pro-Trump. North Carolina has made it extremely difficult to vote by mail. Even before Helene I had requested a ballot, which arrived only a week before. The conditions for filling it out—2 witnesses, ID, paying the absurd $1.77 postage—not to mention the other instructions which will pronqbly be used to disqualify ballots, such as only using a black ballpoint, are almost enough for me to consider it not worth it. Of course I will, but that it even occured to me to skip it makes me sure many others won't bother.
To expect people who have lost their houses, who may have travelled out of state, etc., to first get a ballot, then to retuen it, all the while trying tp build their lives, strikes me as really unlikely. That is going to affect people in smaller towns much more than Ashevilleans, who will still be able to get to polling places. Maybe I'm missing something, but I really think Helene is going to hand North Carolina to Harris. If so, I think I will believe it was an act of God. And climate change.
P.R. in Austin, TX, writes: First, thanks for writing about this subject.
Second, while I agree that no one knows what the hurricane will do to turnout, it is instructive to note that there are only two Democratic counties out of the 25 that were harmed.
Third, it is not just about North Carolina. It will also affect votes in Georgia and Florida. I looked at the CNN maps from 2020 and the FEMA disaster maps. The majority of the affected counties are in red territory. While the presidential race may not be changed in FL, this could conceivably influence Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) in the Senate race:
Finally, if you have an ongoing interest, you might want to check out poweroutage.us. The site monitors electric outages by county in real time. It is a shadow of how many voters are severely affected.
K.E. in Newport, RI, writes: This is a powerful video documenting the destruction from Hurricane Helene and dispelling the conspiracies around the federal response:
This YouTuber heard online rumors, spread by Trumpers, that the federal government was seizing private land by eminent domain and stacking dead bodies in the village of Chimney Rock, NC. The right-wingers are accusing the Biden administration of using a tragedy to steal land. So, he walked 10 miles along a destroyed road to see what was going on himself. There is no other way to reach the village than by helicopter.
There are, of course, no FEMA camps or piles of corpses there. There are some aid workers doing their best to help in an inaccessible area, but there is no effort to convert private property to government use. Trumpers are trying to take advantage of people's desperation and fear to incite paranoia against the Biden administration.
The images of this storm damage will shock you, even if you have lived through natural disasters. This is the worst destruction I have seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. There are miles of landslides and destroyed roads and buildings. One house's front steps end right at a cliff caused by raging water. It is going to take years to rebuild these communities, and spreading misinformation about the relief efforts will do nothing to help their situation.
Politics: The 2024 Presidential Race
F.C. in Sequim, WA, writes: Since 1980, the majority of voters in Clallam County, WA, have voted for the presidential candidate who won the election, from Ronald Reagan to Joe Biden. We are the only county that can make that claim. One quote, from public broadcasting: "Some of us are embarrassed that we're a bellwether, because it meant we went for Trump one time, but that's how it is."
The lack of MAGA on public blogs, and also the lack of yard signs/bumper stickers, leads me to predict Clallam County will vote Harris/Walz. It seems that here, the air is slowly leaking out of the Trump balloon. Trump folks attacking Springfield, OH, Haitians and claims of dead people voting in elections is just too much. That crap doesn't float in normal America.
C.A. in Tucker, GA, writes: Here is a funny example of the kind of political mail we Democrats receive daily in Georgia. I think they struggle to find unflattering pictures of Harris because she always looks just as fabulous in the attack ads as the supportive ones:
A.B. in San Luis Obispo, CA (formerly Tucson, AZ), writes: You mentioned Jeff Flake's endorsement of Kamala Harris and speculated about its possible impact.
You may not be aware that Jeff Flake is a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints. And the northeast part of Arizona (Flake's home region) is heavily Mormon. Democrats have been working harder lately to remind Mormons that Trump has contempt for the Christian values that the LDS Church takes very seriously. Mitt Romney and Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) lack the backbone to endorse Harris (Romney claims to be worried about his family's safety and DeWine about his political future as a Republican), but Flake has a little more courage, sense of duty, and—perhaps—moral commitment. In a state as close as Arizona, where the MAGA people have purged traditional conservative Republicans and saddled the party with disastrous candidates like Kari Lake (R), Flake's decision might make a difference. Of course, Arizona has persisted in electing crazies like Reps. Paul Gosar (R) and Andy Biggs (R) to the House, so maybe not.
S.G. in Newark, NJ, writes: I have now read every unredacted word of the Special Counsel's 84-page recitation of the facts he would prove, if allowed to, in the case against Trump (Part I of the four-part brief). The case is meticulously prepared and damning. The brief shows beyond a doubt that Trump knew the claims of vote fraud were lies, continued to propagate them anyway, used them to justify a knowingly unlawful fake elector scheme, and finally used them to incite the January 6 riot.
I am a lawyer who follows politics regularly, and even I had not understood until now exactly how close the United States came to a putsch—and how self-consciously Trump and his co-conspirators plotted a deliberate coup d'etat.
E.F. in Baltimore, MD, writes: "Brief" is something of a misnomer, since Jack Smith's filing clocks in at 165 pages. But what's noteworthy to me is that Judge Chutkan ordered the brief released before Donald Trump's lawyers had the opportunity to file yet another string of appeals up the judicial ladder, delaying its publication until after the election.
I don't know how many voters will change their choice, based on this brief. It does seem like Trump's supporters can't be persuaded, and anyone still undecided at this point plainly isn't listening. But I expect that Trump's lawyers will eventually try to use this release as justification for removing Chutkan from the case. If nothing else, it'll introduce some more delay into an already interminable process. Delay is trump's favorite legal strategy.
J.C. in Tokyo, Japan, writes: Every time I see Trump supporters carrying those placards reading "47," the only thing I can think of is "Yes, indeed, your champion never has, and never will have more than 47% support of the U.S. populace. Never."
J.T. in San Bernardino, CA, writes: You wrote: "Normally, this would not be big enough news for us to write a weekend item. However, we had an item yesterday noting that people with advance information were saying the newest jobs report would be so-so. Maybe these people were working from a phony version of the report, like the phony forecast of orange juice futures in the movie Trading Places. In any event, the actual report was fantastic."
Politics: Signs of the Times
S.T. in Federal Way, WA, writes: I went on a road trip to Glacier National Park (GNP) recently and decided to count political road signs that I saw on my drive. I'm not a resident of Montana and it's been 20+ years since I have been to GNP, so I don't have any context on what would be considered "normal" political activity for western Montana.
Since Montana is a pretty reliably red state in presidential elections, I was not surprised to see no Harris signs on my drive. I was somewhat surprised that I only saw one Trump sign, and it wasn't a very big one. Maybe the lack of a competitive race is driving the lack of signs. I was more interested in seeing the sign distribution for the Senate race, since it does appear to be close and is a very important race for control of the Senate. I must admit I was also very underwhelmed by what I saw. I ended up seeing four Dan Sheehy signs and three Jon Tester signs, which seemed like a very low number given the importance of the race. I saw more signs promoting Jesus on the road (and most of these were larger than any political signs I saw!).
Not really sure how to interpret this. I was spending most of my time on highways, but often these would go through/by towns and my route did go through some more residential areas so I was expecting to see more. Maybe voter enthusiasm is low or people just don't put up signs where I drove.
H.C. in Grand Rapids, MI, writes: An encouraging sign from the local airport:
J.S. in Seattle, WA, writes: I spotted this sign on one of my neighborhood walks. The Seattle area is very, very blue, and this sign, from a distance, looked like it was pro-Trump, so I was surprised to see it. Then, when I got closer, I got it:
B.M. in Papillion, NE, writes: It is interesting to hear from other readers about the propensity (or lack thereof) of yard signs and such for candidates. We live a bit south of NE-02 (thanks to being gerrymandered out a while back) but I happened to bicycle into mid-Omaha for breakfast today. "Blue dot" signs (search it) started off as hand-made, spray painted, and a bit of fun. Now they are mass produced, and from what I saw, I would estimate that they outnumber yard signs representing Republican candidates by as much as 8:1 or even 10:1. They are everywhere in central Omaha. Just everywhere. I predict we'll see one EV for Harris. This will be followed—yet again—by Legislative Bill X, which will—yet again—try to go back to winner-take-all. I will then—yet again—write a letter to our newspaper and other outlets to try to fight it. For now, fingers crossed for the blue dot.
D.G. in Ocala, FL, writes: The energy I've seen for Harris/Walz in my part of Florida is uplifting. Here's a photo from a rally in downtown Ocala. Who'd have expected this turnout?
G.H. in Branchport, NY, writes: Another sign in Finger Lakes, NY. I was somewhat confused by this one at first. Still not sure but seems like a felony is considered a "badge of honor"?
Anecdote: we went through northern Pennsylvania this week on route 15/11 for a long stretch and only saw Trump signs. Eventually we saw a few Harris, but they were far outnumbered by Trump. Hoping this isn't a sign of anything!
B.M. in Oakland, CA, writes: Halloween display in a nicer part of Oakland:
H.B. State College, PA, writes: Thought you might enjoy these signs I saw in rural New Hampshire last month.
One of the signs advertises a sack of bovine excrement:
The other is selling cow manure.
Politics: Early Voting
A.H. in Newberg, OR, writes: I have a classmate who lives in Australia but has maintained her U.S. citizenship. She is registered to vote at her sister's home in Vancouver, WA. I sent an e-mail to my classmates reminding them that it is 1 month (31 days) to Election Day. Kathy responded that she sent in her ballot a week ago. I have a pretty good understanding of Kathy's political inclinations.
I believe you can chock up one vote for Kamala!
M.S. in Houston, TX, writes: Last Saturday, the postman handed me my mail-in ballot. I filled it out over my Sunday morning coffee—63 boxes to be fully colored in (mostly judgeships and local offices), no "X" marks allowed. This morning, I sent it off into the bowels of the USPS. I live in a large retirement community in Houston, a pretty blue enclave in a red state, and we've are a continuing target for Gov. Greg Abbott's (R) and AG Ken Paxton's (R) viciously anti-voter (hell, anti-American) attacks , so I won't really relax until I check the state's online vote-tracking system in a week or two and see that my vote has been received and registered. Still, I already feel a sense of relief in having had my say this year. I mean, this is Texas, so my lefty vote will have no noticeable effect on the presidential race, but it might do Sen. Ted Cruz (R) a tiny bit of additional damage. (I miss Ralph Yarbrough.)
T.S. in Memphis, TN, writes: In 2024, I helped count mail-in ballots, so as the voting season has begun I have a word of advice for all ardent mail-in voters: Do not try to be cute when sending in your mail-in ballot, or your ballot won't be counted.
In a state where mail-in ballots have to be counted by one Democrat and one Republican at each table, there weren't shenanigans on our part. But the first thing we learned when opening the ballot envelopes in our state is that the only writing on the envelope holding the ballot can be the voter's signature. Any other writing invalidates the vote. One of the first ballot envelopes we received had "I HATE TRUMP" written all over it. My sympathies were likely exactly where the voter's were, but we had to toss that ballot. It was the most wretched feeling I've ever had. A few other voters used similar approaches on the ballots themselves, and those, too, had to be tossed. If you are sending in a mail-in ballot, do exactly and only as instructed. Want to help your candidate win? Put up a yard sign, call a friend who is on the fence or give money to your candidate. But don't express yourself beyond your vote during the voting process.
Politics: Two-State Voting
S.R. in Ottawa, ON, Canada, writes: In your answer to B.S. in Burlington, you give three reasons a person cannot vote in two states. Your answer is incorrect. A person doesn't need to receive their absentee ballot at their voting address, so the person could conceivably have their South Carolina ballot mailed to their new Indiana address, then vote in person in Indiana. This is how university students that don't want to vote at their campus addresses vote, for example, or how I vote my absentee Pennsylvania ballot from Canada. You're correct that ERIC could catch this, but many red states have pulled out of ERIC over the last few years, as you've noted on several occasions.
A.B. in Wendell, NC, writes: The item from B.S. in Burlington interested me, as I am someone who has moved between states several times. Most recently, of course, was my move from Pennsylvania to North Carolina in 2014. In that year, I voted for Gov. Tom Wolf (D) in the primary, but not in the general... as I was then a resident of NC, and voted for Kay Hagan D) for Senate. So I voted in two states in the same year, but not the same election.
On the other hand, in 2000, I moved from Kentucky to Texas. This resulted in my being denied a primary vote at all. I moved in April. Texas had its primary in March that year,so I missed that... and Kentucky had theirs in May, by which time I was a legal and registered Texas voter, so I missed that, too.
That is why I did not vote for Al Gore in 2000. I was in ruby-red Texas, which was going for Dubya no matter what I did... and I had been denied a primary vote in a primary where I had supported Bill Bradley. And so I cast a write-in ballot for Bill Bradey for President in 2000. Come hell or high water, I was gonna vote for Bradley in 2000.
Bradley had been my senator in New Jersey and I truly liked the man. It is the only election in which I cast my ballot wholly and completely for someone I liked, rather than against someone I despised. And of course I am voting AGAINST TRUMP in 2024. Well, I take it back, I liked Barack Obama, too... and voted for him twice. I voted for Hope and Change, but did not quite get as much Change as I had been Hoping for...
R.H. in San Antonio, TX, writes: You mentioned ERIC as a tool for deleting outdated voter registrations.
I registered in California not long after I arrived in California in 2012. My Kentucky registration was active the last time I looked, a couple of years ago.
I registered here in Texas within a month or two of arriving here in the Spring of 2024. My California registration was canceled within weeks of my Texas registration.
Republicans objected to actually keeping voter registrations updated, solely because a demented man-child cannot accept that he actually lost the popular vote in both general elections in which he was on the ballot.
What will be their excuse if he gets beaten again?
O.S. in Muncie, IN, writes: I knew about the various shenanigans Republican-controlled states have tried to pull to make it more difficult to vote, but lately I have had the misfortune of having to deal with them firsthand. I moved to Indiana a few months ago and have been trying to register to vote for the past few weeks. It has been an infuriating experience. In other, bluer states that I have lived in, registering to vote was so simple that I hardly even remember the process. Here in Indiana, things couldn't be more different.
I do not have an Indiana driver's license, so registering to vote online was out. I either had to mail in an application or complete one in person. Online, I read that proof of residence was only required to vote, not to register. When I got to the registration office, which I had to visit during my lunch break due to the office only being open during business hours, I was told a new law had recently been implemented that required proof of residence to register. I had to fill out the application and go back to work, using my work hours to try to get a printed-out pay stub with my address. I was able to get it, but I realized that for the rest of the week I wouldn't have time to visit the office in person, and the deadline to register was the following Monday. I had to get a digital copy of the same paystub, e-mail it to myself, call the voting registration office, confirm that I could e-mail the paystub to them as proof of residence, and e-mail it.
I think I am registered now, but I only have a month to either get an Indiana driver's license, which requires access to documents I don't have, or get a free ID card, which I cannot find any information on how to acquire, even on the website of the BMV, which is supposed to provide them. Clearly Republican lawmakers have done their jobs well. I can easily see someone with less time, resources, or desire to vote simply giving up due to the complexity of this Kafkaesque process. I am proud of myself for doing my best, but it shouldn't be this hard to exercise one of our most cherished and important rights as American citizens!
Politics: Ranked Choice Voting
E.L. in San Diego, CA, writes: Readers may be interested in the scientific angle regarding the comment from D.W. in Azusa illustrating the shortcomings of ranked-choice voting (RCV), which resulted in electing a mayoral candidate in New York City who seemingly was not the likely preference of Democratic voters. An instructive example of the "spoiler effect."
It has been mathematically proven that in a single-round RCV election, when the ballot presents more than two choices and no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the winner may not necessarily be the most-preferred candidate—no matter what rules are used to reapportion the votes of the lesser-vote-getters.
Arrow's impossibility theorem, enunciated by Kenneth Arrow, proves that no ranked-voting rule can behave rationally, meaning that no ranked-voting rule can consistently eliminate the spoiler effect. I refer math enthusiasts to the theorem's formal statement and proof here.
So, while RCV significantly decreases the incidence of the spoiler effect—in comparison with first-preference plurality and top-two runoff elections—it does not totally eliminate it.
J.K. in St. Paul, MN , writes: A response to the comments from D.W. in Azusa and C.L. in Boulder about the discarded RCV votes for Eric Adams: Just because someone didn't put another choice on their ballot does not mean they don't support a candidate. I would warn against reading too much into that.
I don't always vote in primaries, generally because I don't usually have strong feelings about the candidates at that point. In those cases, I intend to support whoever wins the nomination.
In races where we have RCV (and we do have some), I don't necessarily rank EVERY person. That doesn't mean that I don't support every one of them, it just means that if my preferences don't make the cut, then it doesn't matter to me who wins the vote.
I'm not discounting that there are voters who feel strongly against certain primary candidates because I have known some. There's just no way to know from the ballot if not ranking a candidate is because of ambivalence or aversion. I don't think that is a failure of RCV, and definitely not a reason to not use it.
Politics: COVID
J.G. in Columbia, MD, writes: A brief reply to the question from L.F. in Boulder. About a year ago, curiosity motivated me to do a bit of a literature search on the issue of voluntary COVID mortality—i.e. deaths in excess of mortality predictions after the vaccine became available. I no longer recall the original references, but I found one estimate that suggested low six figures, while a second suggested high six figures.
Split the difference (500K?) and admit that not all deaths were Republican (400K?), or guaranteed votes (200K?) - this is not good science, but hopefully provides a scale for the plausible demographic impact of COVID. 200K would be around 0.25% of the 2020 Republican vote. To be crass, COVID didn't kill enough Republican true believers to change most contests. However, recent election cycles have had some important results decided by very narrow margins.
M.D.H. in Coralville, IA, writes: I happen to be have expertise about both Infectious Diseases and Data Science, so I have analyzed the relevant data. Distrust of mRNA vaccines probably caused between around half a million preventable deaths in the U.S., and if those people were alive today, many of them would likely be Trump voters. Of the 10 States with the highest per-capita Excess Deaths since January 2020, Trump will almost certainly win at least eight, and of the 10 States with the lowest per-capita Excess Deaths since January 2020, Harris will almost certainly win at least eight. At the County level the correlation with voting is even stronger. And this paper drills down to individual-level voting and deaths data to show that Republican voters in the same county died at higher rates than their Democratic-voting neighbors.
Politics: Abortion
A.R. in Los Angeles, CA, writes: When is a ban not a ban? When Donald Trump says it's not. The MAGA set is at it again, with their rhetorical sleight of hand. Instead of a ban, they're now calling it "federal minimum standards." So, Trump can say he won't sign a federal abortion ban, because so long as there are any exceptions or period of time when an abortion is legal, like before 6 weeks, then it's not a ban. This article explains it well.
And the timing of Melania Trump's "revelation" is no coincidence. She's being sent out to make Trump more palatable to Republican women who may be wary of his position on abortion. She's getting paid for her book—I wonder how much she's getting paid by the Trump campaign for this little performance piece.
D.E. in Ashburn, VA, writes: I really think you're wrong about the reasons Melania Trump went public with her pro-choice views. "Good cop, bad cop" is not 3-D chess. We've seen Donald twisting himself into pretzels to try to please both sides on the issue, and this is just one more such effort. Of course, I sure do hope it hurts him more with evangelicals than it helps him with suburban women.
J.R. in Sarasota, FL, writes: I am writing this out of pure frustration. My wife and I are what you might call practicing Catholics. We are also what many would call left-wing Democrats and are comfortable with the policies the Democratic party has espoused, including the right of a woman to make her own decisions regarding her reproductive health.
I will not speak for my wife, but I have held the belief that terminating a fetus that is viable for no reason other than convenience is amoral. Terminating a fetus that is not yet viable, that poses a danger to the mother's health, or that has some other very undesirable outcome has never struck me as unethical or amoral. In fact, we have acted on our beliefs by adopting the child of our teenage daughter when we felt it was a much better outcome than an available termination.
With that as background, we were both very upset when our parish priest read his letter to the congregation as his homily. He basically told us to vote "no" on Amendment 4 on the Florida ballot.
After coming home and calming down, I had a few thoughts on this. The first thought is that the Catholic Church is very much joining the ranks of the Christian Nationalist movement. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, since it is a very non-democratic organization.
I don't think any church should be telling its members how to vote. I especially don't think religious organizations should be promoting restrictive laws. Preach morals to your members all you want. Lay out what you believe is right and wrong. But don't ask them to vote to restrict the freedoms of the rest of us.
Another thought I had was to ask the priest if he was going to tell us not to vote for a misogynistic serial rapist, con man and felon. But I don't need to do that because his boss, the Pope, already spoke out and urged his followers to vote for the lesser evil (in case you are wondering, it was pretty clear he considered rape to be a lesser evil than abortion).
One other detail is that ALL the Catholic bishops in Florida are making the same plea to Floridian Catholics.
Here is a copy of the letter that was included in the weekly bulletin:
Politics: Evangelicals
R.M.S. in Lebanon, CT, writes: In response to A.S. in Renton, I have a book suggestion. Over the summer, I read The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism by Tim Alberta. Alberta is a political reporter, who also grew up as the son of an Evangelical pastor in Michigan. He feels comfortable in that religious community, and wanted to write a book documenting how its political actions have changed over time. He began to realize there was a major problem in Evangelical churches after he wrote a book criticizing Donald Trump's influences on American politics, and was given a hostile reception by other parishioners when returning to visit his father's church in his hometown. He felt uncomfortable, almost as if they prioritized loyalty to Trump over loyalty to God.
The book is not clickbait. It is extensively researched. Alberta visited dozens of Evangelical churches from California to Virginia to see what was going on in them. A common theme he encountered was that many Christians are worshipping the country over worshipping God, and this is what is causing people to become militant and erode the separation of church and state. He points out that Jesus explicitly states in the Bible that his kingdom is not of this world, but many people Alberta speaks to ardently insist the United States is God's kingdom. This has led them to conflate church and state, and they see themselves morally obligated to purge the country of un-Christian figures. In short, they want a holy war, and think Trump's autocratic tendencies can win it.
Alberta is clearly uncomfortable with this vision of the country, but probably due to his upbringing, does not go a step further and question whether the religious beliefs of Evangelicals are reasonable. He takes issue with their political positions, but does not question the core tenets of Evangelicalism.
This book reinforced my existing belief that religion is a highly divisive concept and has had a net negative impact on humanity. It worsens social divisions by splitting people into different belief systems. And it is a formula for conflict because it creates people in in-groups versus out-groups.
Politics: Iran and Israel
O.R. in Milan, Italy, writes: M.G. in Boulder, who wonders about the benefits Iran derives from the mess in the Middle East, might find these two podcasts of interest: (1) Today in Focus: Do Israel and Iran really want to go to war? and (2) What A Day: How Iran and Israel Became Enemies.
E.B. in Oakland, CA, writes: I disagree that Israel is a useful strategic ally of the U.S. against Iran.
From a military perspective, while Israel punches waaaay above its weight in relation to its population, the American war machine is the most powerful in the world and doesn't need any help in that department. Plus, there is the small matter of the fact that more than a thousand airline miles separate the two nations, making it harder to come to blows. As a practical matter, all they can do to one another is lob long-range missile and drones, as well as occasional airstrikes, and support unconventional attacks like terrorism and cyberwarfare.
Conversely, Iran is surrounded by many of the 800+ overseas U.S. military bases, which host about 60,000 troops in the immediate region. Plus, the U.S. has roughly 20 of various types of aircraft carriers in service and could easily seal off Iranian oil exports with its massive navy.
While it is true that Israel could more directly stomp on Iranian allies on its border like Syria and Hezbollah, America probably doesn't need help with that, either.
More to the point, America's "special relationship" with the "Zionist entity" makes it much harder for it to marshal military and political support from the well-armed Arab Persian Gulf states that would love to thump the "Islamic Republic," but are officially dedicated to establishing a Palestinian state.
J.L. in Mountain View, CA, writes: I agree with your response to A.H. in Chevy Chase that the United States shouldn't cut off arms to Israel (as many on the left seem to demand) because of the important role Israel plays in the Middle East's balance of power. That said, I think there may be other things the United States could do to "truly [push] back against the Israeli government."
For one thing, my understanding is that the U.S. has held back recognition of the Palestinian Authority largely as a way to pressure the PA to come to the bargaining table. Since, at this point, it seems pretty clear that it is Benjamin Netanyahu who is the hold-up at the bargaining table, the U.S. could recognize the PA. The U.S. could, in fact, go further, recognizing the PA as the legitimate government of a specific region, one that might include some Israeli settlements, particularly settlements that run by right-wing Israelis who are terrorizing their Arab neighbors. The U.S. could go even further still and state that, while we believe that Israel has every right to defend its sovereignty within its borders (and that we will continue to help it to do so), the PA also has the right to defend its sovereignty within its borders (and we will help it to do so). Finally, we could declare certain settler groups to be terrorist organizations (which they clearly are) and treat them the way we and the Israelis have been treating Arab terrorist groups for years. None of this needs to affect U.S. arms sales to Israel, or the U.S. stance supporting Israel in the U.N. with regard to their relationship with Iran, Hezbollah or Hamas. Israel isn't going to say, "We don't like you any more, you can't shoot down missiles coming from Iran" or "We will no longer accept free parts for the F-16s you gave us."
There are probably good reasons for not doing at least the most extreme of the actions I suggest, and all of this would likely play badly in U.S. domestic politics. However, Joe Biden will have 3 months as commander-in-chief where he has little reason to care about domestic politics. Kamala Harris or Donald Trump can say whatever they think suits their political interests, but 3 months can alter the facts on the ground in ways that are likely permanent. Netanyahu has been fu**ing around for a long time now and, if you ask me, it is about time he found out.
All Politics Is Local
K.J. in Bozeman, MT, writes: If you have the chance, take a look at the debate between Dan Sheehy and Jon Tester. The two individuals conducting the debate were incredible, and the end result was superb. I can't remember seeing a better debate, and yeah, Sheehy was a di**. I don't know if it will move the needle, but this is how a debate should be run.
E.S. in Maine, NY, writes: I'm resident of NY-19. The below from Rep. Marc Molinaro's (R-NY) Facebook page has shown up on my feed roughly every 3 days:
I get mailers from him about the same subject—two today, straight into the recycling. I can't say what is on network or cable TV as we only watch streaming. Very few of his signs in yards, quite a few more for Josh Riley, including three on our 1200+ feet of road frontage. Molinaro's focus is those scary brown people crossing the "open" boarder, for which his opponent is totally responsible because he worked as an aide in Congress.
Jimmy Carter at 100
R.H.D. in Webster, NY, writes: He did it! President Jimmy Carter has hit triple digits on life's odometer. Now he has his own presidential record that will distinguish him from the rest. We may never see this happen again in our lifetimes.
The only sad thing was that his lovely wife, Rosalynn, wasn't present in person to witness this. But I know she was celebrating from above. It won't too long before he heads up to reunite with her forever.
You wrote this past week about his hopes to still be around to vote for Kamala Harris later this month during early voting. I for one hope he can still be here to witness her being elected in November. It would help if his native Georgia stays blue. If he sees her inauguration, that would be icing on the cake.
I have a feeling this election will be eerily similar to Carter's first one in 1976, where he won by a narrow EV margin of 297-240 over Gerald Ford. But with apologies to the 39th president, many wish the outcome will be like his 1980 landslide defeat, only this time in favor of the Democrats.
In any event, Happy 100th birthday!
L.S.-H. in Naarden, The Netherlands, writes: The first election I was eligible to vote in was 1980. Since I was a busy high school student (playing volleyball and basketball, and volunteering for various class positions), I don't remember hearing much about Jimmy Carter's presidency. I just knew that I would vote for him in his reelection campaign. (As a young woman coming of age during the second wave of feminism, I already knew I was a Democrat.) Unfortunately, my one vote didn't help much and Carter didn't succeed in getting reelected. The country was soon overrun by the blare of Ronald Reagan and his devastating policies, and Carter was all but forgotten.
After college, I volunteered for a time at a Habitat for Humanity project in the ABC neighborhood of New York City. I learned a little more about Carter (especially his philanthropy), but I still didn't know that much about his time as president. Recently, though, I saw the movie Carterland on a flight to the U.S. WOW. I learned that Jimmy Carter was the only president to not have a single American service member die in combat during his presidency. That he helped create and signed into law the Ethics in Government Act of 1978, believing it was important to set a good example and do what is fair. Carter also appointed Black people and women to all levels of government, which was unprecedented at the time. Carter appointed 40 women to the bench, including Ruth Bader Ginsburg. He also extended the time to ratify the Equal Rights Act.
I also learned that while Jimmy Carter was a visionary, he was not a leader or a party builder due to his distaste for politics. The Vietnam War debt was paid not with taxes but by printing more money, resulting in Paul Volcker increasing interest rates, ultimately to 20%—a death knell for Carter's reelection campaign. Nevertheless, inflation averaged 3.3% per year under Carter—better than Eisenhower, Clinton and Nixon.
But what impressed me most is that, as seen in Carterland, President Carter showed that it was important to do what is best and necessary for our country. He tackled the big questions: moral and ethical leadership, human rights, the environment, and sustainable relationships in Central America. He did things because they were the right thing to do. It is very fitting that he has lived to be 100; your birthday item on his life was very uplifting. May we return to this type of leadership one day (soon), and may Jimmy Carter live to cast a vote for Kamala Harris!
K.H. in Maryville, TN, writes: Around 2001 or 2002, former president Carter was here in Maryville to do a book signing for Living Faith at our Hastings bookstore (that alone shows how long ago it was—Hastings has been closed for years!). I tried to get off work a little early to get there... I got there, the line was long and it was getting pretty late, but he stayed until we were all able to get our books and have them signed.
As I said, I was near the end of the line and so I stayed in the store until the very end, as did a few other people. When he stood up to leave, I called out "Thank you, Mr. President!" I would like to think we made eye contact but I'm sure we did not. But he did look out over the room and give us a big wave before he left.
This is bringing tears to my eyes just writing it.
Get your vote in on your first day of early voting, Mr. President!
T.S. in Bainbridge Island, WA, writes: In honor of President Jimmy Carter's 100th birthday, I thought I would share with you and your readers the letter signed by him and engraved onto the gold disc attached to the Voyager spacecraft that is currently traveling through interstellar space. To me, it is a reminder of a gentler time when politicians set partisanship aside to make a statement on behalf of all of humankind:
This is a present from a small, distant world, a token of our sounds, our sciences, our images, our music, our thoughts and our feelings. We are attempting to survive our time so we may live into yours. We hope someday, having solved the problems we face, to join a community of galactic civilizations. This record represents our hope and our determination, and our good will in a vast and awesome universe.
Jimmy Carter
President of the United States
The White House
June 16, 1977
J.A. in Dripping Springs, TX, writes: I have long admired Jimmy Carter, not only as a president, but for what a president could accomplish after office. Also, as a software engineer, it was nice to see an engineer in the Oval Office.
That said, it may be difficult to reconcile that image with the help he provided to those pesky marxists up on the frozen tundra, in an event many readers may not know about.
B.W. in Suwanee, GA, writes: In the Atlanta Journal-Constitution today from Mike Luckovich:
J.A. in Cleveland, OH, writes: "Would Jimmy Carter Approve?"
A perfect test for any issue. Thank you for that.
History Matters
S.S. in Elliot Lake, ON, writes: My grandfather, Owen A. Smily (misspelled in the article below) was a "society entertainer"—an elocutionist, humorist, ventriloquist, impersonator—who toured across Canada and in the US north-east from 1892 to 1937.
I have been perusing newspaper archives finding links to where he appeared, and I came across this article. It seems he did a straw poll of the 1896 U.S. election and made an accurate assessment of the results!
This is from The Calumet (Michigan) News, September 26, 1896.
G.W. in Dayton, OH, writes: In doing some research on another project, I came across this little gem from the Dayton (Ohio) Daily News, August 3, 1900. I was not surprised by the ballot item to disenfranchise Black voters, but I was taken aback by how blatantly it was presented as a positive good. How sad that many Southern states, 124 years later, haven't budged from that opinion.
Sweet Home Slovenia
R.H. in Santa Rosa, CA, writes: I would also include the late former governor of Ohio and U.S. Senator George Voinovich in your list of prominent Slovene-Americans. His father was of Serbian descent, and his mother was of Slovenian descent.
D.H. in Waterloo, ON, Canada, writes: Your comment about the bigoted representative of Slovenian heritage seemed like a hidden quiz question, so I'll bite: Paul Gosar (R-AZ)!
(V) & (Z) respond: That is correct.
Sporting Matters
D.D. in Portland, OR, writes: Am I losing my mind or did you trash talk Da Bears? Don't you know that the entire city of Chicago is a giant sports bar? I mourn your inbox for being crushed by the sheer mass of hate mail you're going to be getting. What you wrote is a level of sacrilege on par with saying, "If Michael Jordan was so great then why did it take him 7 years to get his first ring? Magic Johnson was the NBA Finals MVP as a rookie."
Please don't hesitate to take this fitting lesson from A Fish Called Wanda:
P.S.: To my reader friends in Chi-town: I don't mean to start no trouble, I'm just here for the Super Bowl shuffle!
(V) & (Z) respond: We're not worried about e-mails from Bears fans. Remember, to send an e-mail you have to be able to read and write. The same dynamic allows us to get away with USC jokes.
L.H. in Chicago, IL, writes: You doubtlessly got angry responses from other Chicagoans over dissing the Bears, and also likely got "Didn't get the joke" responses correcting you, explaining that the stadium is in fact home to the Chicago Bears. This is neither of those.
I can't fault your snark, but I do need to point out that the 1985 Bears had maybe the most exciting season in NFL history, and easily won the Super Bowl. So the stadium has only lacked for an NFL team for the last 38 years or so.
(V) & (Z) respond: Fair enough.
L.S. in Richland, WA, writes: I'm not much of a football fan, but my father was, and I recall his telling me that the Chicago Bears were a real powerhouse during the thirties and forties, and that they won one championship game by the unlikely score of 73-0. So... does Chicago no longer remember that they once had a real NFL team? Or does the past hold no glory for Illinois football fans?
Or am I misinterpreting all this?
(V) & (Z) respond: There are few people alive today who remember when the Bears were a dynasty. The Browns and Lions have the same problem.
A.P. in Kitchener, ON, Canada, writes: I'll add that at least Soldier Field has had a pretty good association football club (Chicago Fire), the last few seasons not withstanding.
(V) & (Z) respond: Chicago also has a good hockey club. Wait a minute, the city's only good at sports that Canadians care about. Hm....
J.M.P. in Asheville, NC, writes: Every time I see this scene from A Christmas Story, I'm reminded of (Z):
B.C. in Phoenix, AZ, writes: You have continued your unfair characterization of the Chicago Bears as at the top of the bottom of the list (I think that's right) of wannabe NFL Teams. As a lifelong Arizona resident, I hereby demand that you put the Arizona Cardinals ahead of (or is that "behind?") the Bears on that list!
The Arizona Cardinals used to play in Chicago, and as the Chicago Cardinals they won the 1925 NFL championship. They've been losers ever since, moving from being almost bankrupt in Chicago to continue losing as the St. Louis Cardinals for some 27 years, to becoming the loser Phoenix Cardinals playing in a college stadium. Unlike the Bears, who have living former team members wearing the Super Bowl rings they won in 1985, the Cardinals have never won a Super Bowl; their only "championship" in Arizona was convincing voters to fund building the half-a-billion-dollar roadblock and traffic nightmare known as State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The location of that wannabe NFL team stadium is also the reason they had to become the Arizona Cardinals rather than the Phoenix Cardinals.
Can there be any doubt as to why the Cardinals should be on the front of the back (Or is that the "on the highest of the lowest rank?") of your list of wannabe NFL Teams? I demand they get the (dis)respect they deserve!
Complaints Department
A.L. in Toronto, ON, Canada, writes: I'm finished with this website. You're too old to clearly enunciate the problems affecting your country. Carrying so much fu**ing water for these Republican fascists, you've practically done everything but fellate J.D. Vance these last two days. Shameful. I can't believe I've told people to read this manufactured garbage. May as well ask them to read Fox News, you've done about the same job.
"Acting not weird." Every single fu**ing thing out of his mouth was a fabrication. Fu** you.
B.C. in Phoenix, AZ, writes: S.R. in Linden accuses the folks at Electoral-Vote.com of being just as bigoted as the MAGAnuts they call out. S.R. bases this opinion on the old, idiotic political saw "They're ALL liars!"
I've always been amused by the "They're ALL liars!" argument, because at its core is the belief in the equality of all lies and of the reasons for telling them. To demonstrate why that is a truly asinine philosophy, here are two lies which have very different negative and positive impacts:
Lie #1: "They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. They're eating the pets of the people that live there."
Lie #2: "Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus."
Huzzah for D.E. in Lancaster
K.D. in North Vancouver, BC, writes: It is letters like the one from D.E. in Lancaster on Wednesday—a story so incredibly personal and touching—that make Electoral-Vote.com and its community so special. I hereby wish to deeply express heartfelt thanks to D.E. for sharing his early journey with us all. It's a reminder each of us, and in our own ways, can stand up and make the world a better place. And on a lighter note, never on my bingo card was I thinking I'd be drinking coffee at 6 a.m. and listening to "Edge of Seventeen"!
B.C. in Houston, TX, writes: I can't thank D.E. in Lancaster enough for his remarkable story of the bigoted college professor who, thanks to D.E., was eventually removed from his post. We will never know exactly the process working through D.E., when, after sitting through weeks of ridiculous lectures, he finally kind of "snapped" after hearing that AIDS was God's punishment for homosexuality, and he just said "Hold it. You need to stop right there." It's a wonderful thing when the impulse to do good takes hold of a person, and they stand up for what is right, and what is wrong, the consequences of doing so be damned. At this point, we all need to stand up and say to the MAGA liars, et al., "Its time to stop right there." I also loved his comments about living near the sea, and how he feels a storm brewing out there, and I can only hope he is right, and the current toxicity in politics today is wiped away.
R.C. in Eagleville, PA, writes: Thank you, D.E. in Lancaster for your inspirational story of the philosophy class. It has motivated me to action. My next door neighbor recently began flying a Trump 2024 flag and your letter has encouraged me to prominently place a Harris/Walz sign on my lawn. We should all follow D.E.'s example to speak up now, in every forum, to defeat Trump and his entire MAGA cult. The lawn sign is just the start; I refuse to cede any ground to the MAGA crowd.
J.G. in Berkeley, CA, writes: Thank you so much for posting the letter from D.E in Lancaster. I very much appreciated reading his thoughts and was really grateful for your decision to post his letter.
It reminded me that I wanted to encourage your readers to watch Bad Faith, a documentary about Christian nationalism. It is really very well done, narrated by Peter Coyote and featuring Rev. William Barber among other folks. Info can be found here, and people can watch it on various platforms, found here.
B.D. in St. Agatha, ON, Canada, writes: Thank you so much for printing D.E.'s letter. Wow. I also went to a small college, and taught at a university for many years, and I could never imagine a professor doing what that professor did. I'm glad D.E. called him out, and I hope D.E.'s comments inspire others to call out the nonsense. But more importantly, D.E.'s comments on our future, if Dump wins, are right on, and very chilling.
I am a U.S. citizen still, and I will never set foot in the U.S. again if Dump wins.
K.F.K. in Cle Elum, WA, writes: I really hope D.E. is right in his assessment of decent Americans willing to speak up. As a person who has been frustrated frequently by friends and colleagues thanking me after I have spoken, but being unwilling to support me out loud in the moment, I love the Sara Bareilles song "Brave." If D.E. ever makes it as far west as Washington State, I will buy the beverage of his choice.
H.C. in Fort Collins, CO, writes: If you read The Guardian online, you might know that they sort their list of most popular articles in two ways, "most viewed" and "deeply read." D.E.'s letter, surprisingly, fell into the latter category for me. I must admit that the wall of text put me off at first. Plus, I'm not a fan of Stevie Nicks. The story carried me, however, and I so hope that D.E.'s closing assertion, that storm Trump is blowing itself out and "we have stopped letting the fascist elements of the conservative party dictate our conversations," is true.
Thanks for finding space for it.
J.A.D. in Nashville, TN, writes: Thank you, D.E., for your impassioned plea for us all to speak the truth about the clear and present danger to our democratic republic. The right has been moving into darker and darker waters for a generation now. And it has reached the point where a plurality (at least) of Americans now think that the creation of concentration camps in America might be a good thing.
Please note, I speak as one who was raised and lived as a Republican for many years. Some will understand when I say I identified as a Rockefeller Republican. But the center has not held, and there are no responsible Republicans any longer. Most are either full MAGA, or too cowardly to speak the truth any longer. Liz Cheney is correct. There needs to be a new party.
Anyhow, thanks for speaking truth.
Gallimaufry
C.R. in Pittsburgh, PA, writes: I saw Will & Harper last week and I thought it was moving, hilarious at times, and filled with personal information the public doesn't often hear about. Will Ferrell has been the recipient of my admiration for years but his insight into the making of this film took it over the top. What a talented, funny, and caring individual.
R.E.M. in Brooklyn, NY, writes: Only a Fool Believes Michael McDonald is best known for Steely Dan. A Minute by Minute review of McDonald's career shows he was only briefly in Steely Dan, and you Can Take It to the Streets. (V), have you been smoking Doobie, Bro?
(V) & (Z) respond: It was actually (Z) who added that line, and the Steely Dan bit was a last second change prompted by concerns that people would not recognize the original reference: "The guy on all the TVs in The 40-Year-Old Virgin." In any case, you would not believe how many e-mails we got.
M.U. in Seattle, WA, writes: To your intro to the Sunday comments posting: How in the world could you forget the Flying Spaghetti Monster?!
R.H.O. in Portland, ME, writes: You wrote: "Wow, we're actually on time today. Many thanks to Jesus, Allah/Yahweh, Vishnu, Zeus, Ahura Mazda, Isis, Thor, Baha'u'llah, Gitche Manitou, Quetzalcoatl, the Winter Witch and/or the prophet/deity/supernatural figure of your choice."
I see what you did there. You purposefully omitted Flying Spaghetti Monster, revealing him to be our one true deity. Very clever. He boiled for our sins.
A.H. in Newberg, OR, writes: Regarding the answer to J.H. in Boston: I can attest to (V) & (Z)'s response that when I have asked that my question or comment be forwarded to the original poster that: (1) my query is almost immediately replied to, with a confirmation that it has been sent on its way, and (b) usually shortly thereafter, I receive an e-mail reply back from the original poster answering my question or responding to my comment.
I think this has now happened about four or give times, and I have enjoyed e-mail message sharing with each and every one of my newfound distant friends. I have discovered new and enlightening information and connections with my far-flung Electoral-Vote.com friends and family that I never knew existed and cannot be replicated.
So yes, Electoral-Vote.com does pass on communications between members and THANK YOU to (V) & (Z) for your efforts, and to the commentariat for staying in touch!
T.B. in Leon County, FL, writes: Per your advising "they can do with the message whatever they wish, including ignore it," I've always presumed that's what you do with all my contributions. So when you do publish "T.B. in Leon County," I wonder who that T.B. is.
G.M. in Laurence Harbor, NJ, writes: You just know Gary Larson addressed the dachshund issue:
Final Words
R.H. in San Antonio, TX, writes: In 14 AD, Augustus (Octavian) fell ill and died at the age of 75.
His final words were "Acta est fabula, plaudite," meaning: "Have I played the part well? Then applaud as I exit."
Publicly, though, his propaganda department reported that his final words were "Behold, I found Rome of clay, and leave her to you of marble."
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