Main page    Nov. 29

Pres map
Previous | Next | Senate page | Menu

New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: AZ GA MI NV PA WI

And So It Begins, Part I: The West Wing Reality Distortion Field Is Already Operating at Full Strength

Donald Trump has been erratic for years and years, including the entirety of his first presidential term. Now, add in several new/semi-new developments: (1) cognitive decline (possibly serious), (2) a sense of invulnerability triggered by defeating his court cases/being declared a king by the Supreme Court/winning the popular vote, and (3) no further need to appeal to voters beyond the base. Under these circumstances, it's very difficult to know what exactly to make of his pronouncements.

Case in point: Trump's declaration, now repeated several times, that on his second first day in office, he is going to slap 25% tariffs on everything coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico unless they do something about immigration and fentanyl smuggling. On one hand, he made this a central plank of his presidential campaign this year. On the other hand, such a move would have very obvious deleterious effects on the economy, and he would own those effects. Even the powerful right-wing propaganda machine would be unable to convince voters, excepting the True Believers, that the sequence (1) Trump slaps huge tariffs on North American imports, and (2) goods from Mexico and Canada go way up in price, necessarily means (3) "Damn you, Joe Biden."

It might be useful, at this point, to talk a little bit about the core plank of Trump's 2016 presidential run, namely that there would be a wall built along the U.S. border, and that Mexico would pay for it. That did not happen, of course. Trump couldn't even get the wall built with a Republican trifecta, and the potential for Congress to agree to cut the necessary check. So, he redirected some funds allocated for the military, built a few miles of wall, posed for some photos, and called it a victory.

When we wrote about the tariffs a couple of days ago, we proposed that he might take the same tack here, claiming a "win" without any particular basis for doing so. That said, we thought that it would take some time—a year or two—which was about the same timeline for declaring a "win" on the wall. It would seem that our timeline might have been in error this time, by a lot, because Trump is already declaring victory on the tariffs.

As soon as Trump made his 25% proclamation, he got phone calls from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Let us pause to note that, as with the wall, the real target here is Mexico. We very seriously doubt that even the True Believers care about Canada, first since that nation is not actually sending fentanyl or undocumented immigrants to the U.S. in any meaningful numbers, and second because most Canadians are white (i.e., not from a "sh**hole country"). Trump only included Canada on the list because of NAFTA v2.0. Mexico, by contrast, actually does send undocumented immigrants and fentanyl to the U.S. in meaningful numbers (albeit, not in the manner that Trump claims). Further, most Mexicans are brown, while their leader is both a woman and a Jew (and if you doubt that MAGA nation has noticed those latter two facts, just check the right-wing social media platforms sometime).

You can presumably see where this is headed. Trump hasn't said a word about his call with Trudeau, but he's already claimed victory vis-à-vis Mexico. After talking to Sheinbaum, he hopped onto his highly questionable social media platform and posted this:

Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!

Presumably, he tossed the "Pardo" in there, which is not usually used, to remind everyone that Sheinbaum is also a Latina. In any event, Trump's proclamation was greeted with a round of "Huzzahs" among his right-wing supporters.

There is only one small problem, and you probably already know what it is: It's not true. Sheinbaum does not particularly want a trade war with the U.S., but she's also not going to allow the first act of Trump and Sheinbaum to be "Donald walks all over Claudia." She probably also suspects, probably rightly, that, at least in the short term, the U.S. will be hurt more by the tariffs than Mexico will be. In any event, after Trump took his victory lap, she very quickly released a statement, in Spanish, in which she said that she made no such promises, and that "We reiterate that Mexico's position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples."

So, where does this leave us? Who knows? And we don't feel too badly that our crystal ball is murky; even Maggie Haberman (a.k.a. "The Trump Whisperer") has no idea what to make of it. Her exact words: "I have no idea what that actually means."

We do know a couple of things, however. First, as we wrote yesterday, quite a few Republican politicians (and voters) are excited about a trade war. They might not be too happy if Trump decides to back down without firing a shot. We also know that there will still be plenty of undocumented immigrants (asylum-seekers or not) coming into the country, and plenty of fentanyl, and people will notice.

On the other hand, we also know a couple of things that point in the other direction. First, Trump is very good at creating an alternate reality for his faithful followers. If he says "immigration crisis solved!" or "fentanyl crisis solved!" maybe they will accept that as fact. Second, it helps that the places that tend to be most anti-undocumented-immigrant also tend not to have many undocumented immigrants. So, the True Believers might not be exposed to much evidence that Trump is full of it (although those same places tend to have pretty bad fentanyl problems, and so that will still be on display).

The upshot is that, thus far, the features of Trump v2.0 are awfully similar to the features of Trump v1.0. That he's drawing from the same old, worn-out bag of tricks has not escaped the notice of the commentariat. Yesterday, social media was full of comments like this one, from Matthew Yglesias: "Trump creating a fake crisis with Mexico over fake tariff threats only to settle it in exchange for fake concessions all over a holiday week when he's not even in office yet is a reminder of how exhausting-yet-boring four full years of this will be." Yglesias also observed that there has been a decrease in border crossings, thanks to an agreement made by the Biden administration. So, to the extent that there IS a "victory" here, it's Trump claiming credit that rightly belongs to Joe Biden.

And that's not the only example of Trump stealing credit from Biden over this holiday weekend. Within 24 hours of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah being announced, Trump and those in his circle were taking all the credit. The President-elect has humble-bragged in a couple of media hits, while NSA-designate Mike Waltz took to eX-Twitter to tweet this:

Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump.

His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won't be tolerated. I'm glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.

This one, we not only predicted, we pretty much hit the bullseye:

Will Donald Trump get any credit for this?: He really shouldn't, since he and his team didn't have anything to do with it (although they have been getting briefings). That said, the Republican spin machine is very powerful, and we can envision something along these lines: "Hezbollah knew they had to get while the gettin' was good, because in just a few weeks, there will be a new sheriff in town."

You should not be impressed, as this was about as easy as predicting that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. However, we do thank the many readers who brought this story to our attention, starting with B.C. in Walpole, ME, who wrote: "About 8:30 this morning, I read where you raised the question, 'Will Donald Trump get any credit for this?' You said he would, despite not deserving any. About two hours later, he may not have been getting credit, but he was already taking it."

There have been a few flare-ups of violence, incidentally, but thus far the ceasefire appears to be holding. The first week or so is the real test. Now, if it does NOT hold, what do you think the odds are that Trump, Waltz, etc. will accept responsibility? You surely don't need our help to be able to answer that question. (Z)

And So It Begins, Part II: For Trump (and Friends), the A**holery Is the Point

Let us now put forth four propositions:

We are not going to pretend that any or all of these statements are false, in the name of some vague notion of "fairness" or "balance" or whatever. As Maya Angelou observed, "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time." Trump has been showing EVERYONE who he is, over and over, for more than half a century. And note, being an a**hole does not inherently make a person a bad president. Richard Nixon, Lyndon B. Johnson and both Roosevelts were a**holes, too. It really depends on how a politician channels their a**holery.

The problem with Trump is that his a**holery is often directed at those who do not deserve it, and that it generally exists to serve his ego, as opposed to some larger purpose. And just in case anyone forgot, or hoped that maybe he'd mellow due to old age/not needing to win any future elections, Trump used the Thanksgiving holiday to remind everyone of his special brand of a**holery, using his curiously valuable social media platform to broadcast this to the nation he is about to re-assume leadership of:

Happy Thanksgiving to all, including to the Radical Left Lunatics who have worked so hard to destroy our Country, but who have miserably failed, and will always fail, because their ideas and policies are so hopelessly bad that the great people of our Nation just gave a landslide victory to those who want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Don't worry, our Country will soon be respected, productive, fair, and strong, and you will be, more than ever before, proud to be an American!

We always hold out hope that he can summon a little bit of class on days like Thanksgiving, and we're pretty much always disappointed. And in case you are wondering, incidentally, here is Joe Biden's Thanksgiving message:

Happy Thanksgiving, America.

May we use this moment to take time from our busy lives and focus on what matters most:

Our families, our friends, our neighbors, and the fact that we've been blessed to live in America, the greatest country on Earth.

It is not hard to write a fundamentally decent, graceful, unifying message. We could have given you the Thanksgiving message of any president who served during the "Thanksgiving era" (basically, since the Civil War), and as long as the author wasn't Trump, it would look and sound very much like this.

Of course, just as vultures are drawn to carrion, a**holes tend to attract other a**holes like a magnet. And so it is that the two men who are arguably the biggest a**holes in America are now in orbit around one another. We speak, naturally, of Trump's new sidekick, Elon Musk, who has also been showing the world who he is this week. For example, now that he apparently has access to... everything, Musk doxxed four federal government employees he deems to be extraneous.

The four doxxed staffers have a few things in common. First, they are not public-facing, and so interact only with other federal employees. Second, they are all in jobs related to climate control. Third, and we seriously doubt this is a coincidence, they are all women. One suspects that Musk is learning that it's not going to be terribly easy to terminate people's employment, so he's going to try to make things so unpleasant that people quit. All four women have already been the targets of much online harassment since Musk used his personal social media flamethrower to villainize them.

That said, it's not only women. On Wednesday, Musk set his sights on Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman (ret.), who was a key figure in the hearings held by the 1/6 Committee, and whose brother was just elected to Congress, tweeting: "Vindman is on the payroll of Ukrainian oligarchs and has committed treason against the United States, for which he will pay the appropriate penalty." Needless to say, Musk offered no evidence in support of any of these defamatory claims. One has to assume that the reason he "bravely" went after Alexander, as opposed to Eugene, is that it is a felony to threaten a government official.

There are two things that are very disconcerting about all of this. The first is that neither of these men has any meaningful accountability. Trump, of course, is now King Louis XIV, courtesy of Chief Justice John I. Musk's new gig is governmental enough that he has access to people, information and resources, but not governmental enough that he's subject to federal laws governing his behavior. And, by virtue of his wealth, he's also effectively judgment-proof. A nine-figure judgment nearly broke Trump's back, but would be just a mosquito bite for Musk.

The second problem, and we've only pointed this out a million times before, is that all of this scapegoating, us vs. them, "traitor" talk puts ideas in the heads of people. This isn't just speculation; it's already happening. Over the past few days, five different members of the Connecticut congressional delegation received bomb threats. And, shortly before that, Reps. Lee Zeldin and Elise Stefanik (both R-NY) got the same treatment. In other words, once you open Pandora's Box, no politician or semi-politician is immune—not even a guy who has already been the target of at least two assassination attempts this year. You'd think someone might point that out to him. Though maybe they have, and he just can't control himself. (Z)

What I'm Thankful For: (Some) Happy Days Still Lie Ahead

Yesterday, we asked readers to send in some thoughts about what they're thankful for this year. We got more than enough to be able to share some of them:

Thanks to everyone for their contributions—and we hope everyone enjoyed the pie, too! (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Everybody Loves Raymond Burr

Did you know that Perry Mason was, in fact, a 'Nade? And that show debuted 67 years ago. Never, ever doubt that the folks up north are playing the long game.

In any case, for last week's headline theme, we first gave the hint that "if a headline word appears to be misspelled on a Friday, it's probably deliberate." That would certainly apply to something like "The Weeknd." On Saturday, we added this: "you might need to put your thinking toque on." And now, courtesy of reader D.D. in Carversville, PA, here's the answer:

The headlines all contain the names of show people born in Canada (you might refer to it as the Great Blight North): You're laying it on Thicke. Keep Calm and Carrey On! Thanks for the Thanksgiving Candy!

Very good, though the Young we actually intended was Neil Young, eh.

Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:

  1. M.Z. in Sharon, MA
  2. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
  3. M.W. in Altea, Spain
  4. D.D. in Carversville
  5. R.D. in Cheshire, CT
  6. S.G. in Durham, NC
  7. S.K. in Ardmore, PA
  8. E.K. in Arlington, MA
  9. E.O. in Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  10. M.B. in Albany, NY
  11. D.D. in Highland Park, IL
  12. T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts
  13. P.C. in Austin, TX
  14. R.A. in Chesterfield, MO
  15. M.L. in Iowa City, IA
  16. L.D. in Bedford, MA
  17. E.B. in Avon, IN
  18. A.C. in Minneapolis, MN
  19. A.W. in Pittsburgh, PA
  20. R.H.O. in Portland, ME
  21. B.H. in Southborough, MA
  22. J.C. in Trenton, NJ
  23. E.B. in North Liberty, IA
  24. S.H. in Santa Barbara, CA
  25. R.M. in Concord, NH
  1. C.W. in Hamilton, NY
  2. M.S. in Canton, NY
  3. L.J.D. in Orlando, FL
  4. D.O. in Brookline, MA
  5. J.S. in Pittsburgh, PA
  6. L.A.J. in Bourbonnais, IL
  7. D.M. in Oakland, CA
  8. R.S. in Milan, OH
  9. R.S. in Pittsgrove, NJ
  10. J.S. in Columbia, MO
  11. M.L. in West Hartford, CT
  12. A.C. in Kingston, MA
  13. P.W. in Tulalip, WA
  14. V.M. in Indianapolis, IN
  15. R.R. in Pasadena, CA
  16. A.R. in Arlington, VA
  17. M.M. in Leonardtown, MD
  18. D.S. in Layton, UT
  19. J.I. in San Francisco, CA
  20. J.H. in El Segundo, CA
  21. K.R. in Austin, TX
  22. P.C. in Santa Monica, CA
  23. L.B. in Cardiff, Wales
  24. M.T. in Simpsonville, SC
  25. D.M. in Austin, TX

R.H.O. in Portland adds: "Believe it or not, I struggled the most with "Cruz." Once I identified the theme (with Martin Short and The Weeknd I knew I had it...) I actually spent some time googling "Cruz" trying to find a Canadian actor, singer, or something similar. Then it finally dawned on me—and by "it", I mean why you have always been suspicious of Canadians. Given that Ted Cruz is the most powerful Canadian in the American government, I think your suspicion is justified. Sorry for ever doubting you."

Meanwhile, S.K. in Ardmore admits that their "paternal grandparents immigrated to Michigan (infiltrated?) from Ontario." If anyone from the FBI is reading, please reach out, and we'll be happy to provide identifying information.

As to this week's theme, it's definitely in the category Entertainment, and it relies on one word in some headlines, on multiple words in others. As to a hint, we'll just say outright that we tried desperately to find a way to work WKRP in Cincinnati into a headline, as that is far and away the best-known example, but it just wasn't doable. Anyhow, with God as your witness, you'll want to make sure your answer makes sense, given that hint. Again, WKRP in Cincinnati is far and away the best-known example.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject "November 29 Headlines." (Z)

Schadenfreude: Los Angeles Cheers as Soon-Shiong Gets Called Out

Patrick Soon-Shiong, billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Times, has not clothed himself in glory in the last month. First, he eighty-sixed the paper's endorsement of Kamala Harris, in the name of "fairness." Then, he doubled down on that, and said that in order to make the newspaper's editorial board more "representative," he planned to hire CNN's token right-winger, Scott Jennings.

These billionaires always think they are smarter than the rest of us. And, in their specific domains, maybe that's true. But in this domain, Soon-Shiong isn't fooling anyone. First, Jennings does not offer a "conservative" perspective. He is a mouthpiece for the MAGA Movement, and the things he says on CNN are misleading or downright dishonest, more often than not. Second, editorial boards work as democracies. If you take the five (current) members of the board, all of whom wanted to endorse Harris, and you add Jennings, then you get... a 5-1 vote for Harris, or for whatever other "left-wing" perspective the board has.

Soon-Shiong is not trying to be more "fair," and we also doubt that he's trying to get his own personal politics into the newspaper. No, this is all about kissing the rear end of exactly one person, a rear end that will soon be positioned right behind the Resolute desk. That's the only reason to scotch the endorsement and it's the only reason to hire the most famous non-Fox Trump mouthpiece. If all Soon-Shiong wanted was a right-wing perspective, there are plenty of people like that who have actual ties to California, like Lanhee Chen, or soon-to-be-former Rep. Michelle Steel (who just conceded yesterday).

Anyhow, in an effort to put his spin out there, Soon-Shiong agreed to sit for an interview with Oliver Darcy, who used to be CNN's media guy, but who now works for himself as an independent blogger. The good thing about not having a bunch of suits above you in the hierarchy is that you don't have to worry about whose toes you step on. And so, Darcy brought the thunder. It's probably best to let Darcy himself explain how things went down, after Soon-Shiong raved about how "respectful" and "thoughtful" Jennings is:

Whether or not you believe Jennings is respectful to his fellow panelists (and that is very debatable) is beside the point. The problem with Jennings is that his commentary is, at its core, dishonest. He may not outright blurt out lies, but he isn't being truthful, either. His entire career hinges on defending a politician who subjects the populace to an endless stream of lies and conspiracy theories. Honest people are not in the line of work of defending dishonest people—especially when they are in such important positions of power.

It was when I attempted to broach this topic with Soon-Shiong that our conversation grew combative. He told me it was merely my "opinion" that Trump lies more than other politicians. I pushed back, noting that the depths of his dishonesty have been well-documented by fact-based news organizations. Soon-Shiong didn't apparently appreciate that. He scolded me for making "a statement."

"If you want to talk about Donald Trump, that's not the conversation I started with," the billionaire said, clearly annoyed.

Trying to steady the ship, I explained to him that I was only mentioning Trump because he had invited one of the president-elect's staunchest defenders to be on his new editorial board. I wanted to ask him how he grapples with the fact that defending Trump at every turn requires a person to engage in a high level of deceit. And, to be clear, defending Trump is primarily what Jennings gets paid to do. But when I told Soon-Shiong this, he accused me of harboring "bias" and added, "This is really what I think is the matter with the country."

Not long thereafter, Soon-Shiong took his ball and went home. That is to say, he insulted Darcy a few times, and then slammed down the phone and ended the interview.

When Soon-Shiong acquired the paper a few years back, it was because it was in trouble. Daily circulation is down to 200,000, while the website has about 500,000 subscribers. The greater Los Angeles metro area has about 13 million people, so that's not a great clearance rate, especially since many of those website subscribers are not Angelenos. Needless to say, Soon-Shiong's phony posturing isn't going to help the paper or its reputation. It's also not going to help Soon-Shiong's reputation, as he is now on the Los Angeles villains list. He probably doesn't care about sacrificing his newspaper on the altar of his biotech interests, since the latter is where his real money comes from. However, he may discover that in L.A., once your reputation is in tatters, all of your business interests are affected. Put another way, the city has run more than one unpopular rich guy out of town. (Z)

Freudenfreude: Senator Helmy Displays Both Will and Grace

Do you know what state George Helmy represents in the U.S. Senate? Assuming you are not from that state, or maybe one of its neighbors, the odds are pretty good you don't. If so, you're to be forgiven. Heck, we've only mentioned him one time this year.

The state that Helmy represents is... New Jersey. See, he is the guy that Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) selected to replace Bob Menendez once it was official that Menendez is a crook. Because it's not uncommon for senators to die, or quit a little early, or... get convicted of felony-level crimes, there have been more than two dozen members who, like Helmy, served for 90 days or less. Normally, they take in the scenery, and make sure to get themselves some business cards, matchbooks, and pens engraved with their name and the U.S. Senate logo, that they can hand out as souvenirs for the rest of their days. They might also make sure to get their fill of U.S. Senate bean soup. Few of them actually try to do the job, though.

As you can probably guess, the "enjoy the ride" approach is not the one Helmy chose. He got a few months with some meaningful amount of power, and he was determined to use it. So, he has done a bunch of networking, including some reaching across the aisle. This has resulted in his sponsoring or co-sponsoring 30 pieces of legislation, most notably a bill that endeavors to protect children from the worst elements of social media. He also gave a well-received speech on the situation in Gaza. And he opened up three local offices back in New Jersey, and has been doing constituent services, something Menendez had largely lost interest in.

Helmy's time in office is almost up; he's expected to resign early, so that Sen.-elect Andy Kim (D-NJ) can get a leg up, seniority-wise. Still, it's an excellent example of carpe diem—seize the day. Helmy got his opportunity, and he made the very most of it. Plus, he's only 45, and he's gotten great reviews, so who knows, he might be back in Washington in his own right one of these days. (Z)

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas: Time for Some Holiday Cheers

For the last several years, we've spent December running politics-themed poetry. We're going to put that tradition in mothballs for a year or two, and do something a little different this season. Each week, leading to the holiday, will have a different... theme, for lack of a better term. To get some momentum going, we'll deploy something we've done a couple of times before. So, it's suggested Christmas presents for:

Visual aids are welcomed, and we hope folks can have some fun with it. (Z)


Previous | Next

Main page for smartphones

Main page for tablets and computers