Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is preparing to hit the ground running, as every major media outlet has now called the House of Representatives for the Republican Party. That, of course, gives the GOP the trifecta.
At the moment, the Associated Press (and most other outlets) have the red team with 218 seats, the blue team with 210, and 7 seats still to be awarded. Here's a quick rundown of the seats that are still up in the air:
Assuming that all of the folks who currently have leads are able to keep those leads, then that means the undecided seats will go 4R, 3D. However, 4D, 3R is also pretty plausible.
It presumably goes without saying that Johnson's plans to roll up his sleeves and get to work could soon run into cold, hard numerical realities. At the moment, he's looking at a majority of 222-213, or maybe 221-214. As a reminder, for most of Johnson's time as speaker, it's been something like 220-212. And Donald Trump has already poached three members (Matt Gaetz, R-FL; Elise Stefanik, R-NY; Mike Waltz, R-FL), and could poach more. So, the Speaker could start with a majority that is something like 218-213 or 217-214. The Freedom Caucus still exists, of course, and has roughly 38 members. So, they will be in a position to put the kibosh on... pretty much anything they want to. And it won't even take the whole FC, just a few of the really nutty ones.
Johnson is undoubtedly happy to retain the House majority, and the Republicans are undoubtedly happy to have the trifecta, but it's under some of the least desirable circumstances possible. To start, things figure to get ugly in the House, given the raw numbers, not to mention the fact that the far-right is really feeling its oats right now. And if and when the Speaker finally does get a bill passed that does anything more important than rename a post office, then the Senate is no sure thing, given the rather less radical character of that body, not to mention the filibuster (which may, or may not, survive).
Also unhelpful, from the Speaker's perspective, are the two trifecta leaders (trifectans?) he most needs to rely on. Newly-minted Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is not Trumpy, and not inclined toward passing whackadoodle legislation. One can imagine a dynamic developing that is not unlike the frosty relationship that existed between Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Meanwhile, the other trifectan is Donald Trump, who has little interest in governing, and little patience for sausage-making. The President-elect might send out a tweet in the middle of the night, but he's not going to do much else to help steer legislation through Congress. And when and if a bill gets to his desk, there's no guarantee he'll actually sign it, even if he's promised to do so.
Finally, as the Republicans face these less-than-pleasant dynamics, the fact that they have the trifecta (even if barely) means that they get to own EVERYTHING. If the government shuts down, or the nation defaults on the debt, or tariffs lead to crazy inflation, or border crossings are not reduced, or whatever, there's no blaming the Democrats, since the Democrats control none of the levers of power. The same is true if nothing gets done.
Reader P.F. in Fairbanks, AK writes in with a sentiment that is common among many Democrats right now:
I was relieved to learn that the Democrats did not retain the House.
In 2 years, Americans will return to the polls and it must be clear and unambiguous who owns this clown show. The worst thing that could happen is allowing the public to wonder aloud why the Democrats didn't impeach Trump or why they couldn't intervene in poor policy. Nearly as bad would be conservatives blaming Trump's inability to wreak even more havoc on Democrats' obstruction. Imagine the dueling campaign calls: Fire the Democrats for doing nothing to stop Trump; Fire the Democrats for getting in Trump's way. Lose-lose.
Republicans must own this, all of it, without exception. Too many Republicans hid behind Democrats as their line of defense against Trump so they could cower behind their guardrails while basking in the MAGA-love, all as they publicly whipped those same Democrats for daring to be the guardrails that made the whole thing work. Now they can stand naked before the American people and grasp at straws to explain their failures.
America voted for this, and America needs to see exactly what they voted for.
There is something to be said for this point of view. Whenever an American political party gains the trifecta, then the system operates like parliamentary systems tend to operate, where the party in power is in an optimal position to implement its agenda, but also an optimal position to take the blame for anything and everything that goes wrong. If Johnson, in particular, is going to navigate such a fraught situation, he's going to have to show considerably more skill than he has displayed thus far in his career as speaker. (Z)
"Cemetery Gates" is a song about a woman who dies unexpectedly, and well before her time. That could be a story that plays out a whole lot more than it needs to over the next 4 years, as Donald Trump announced yesterday that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is his pick to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.
We probably do not need to explain to readers why Junior has no business running this department, but just in case we'll note that, first of all, he has nothing on his résumé that prepares him to lead an agency with over 83,000 employees and an annual budget in excess of $1.6 trillion. Second, and more obviously, Kennedy's approach to health has nothing to do with science, and everything to do with conspiratorial thinking, gut feel, and whatever he's pulled out of his a** on any particular day. Just last week, he went on a rant about Froot Loops, of all things, thundering: "Why do we have Froot Loops in this country that have 18 or 19 ingredients, and you go to Canada and it's got two or three?" Obviously, we admire anyone who casts a critical eye in the direction of the Great White North, but the fact is that Canadian Froot Loops have 17 ingredients. The 'Nades are less comfortable with food dyes, so the cereal has slightly fewer dyes up there, and the colors are less bright.
In case you don't believe us when it comes to RFK Jr., how about some actual medical professionals?
Sanjay Gupta (CNN): "Well, you know, it's not often that the entire medical and public health community is going to be in lockstep on something, but they're pretty close on this in terms of their significant concerns—horror, even. Somebody said to me today, 'I can't think of any single individual who would be more damaging to public health than RFK.'"
Apu Akkad (USC): "A scary day for public health."
Alastair McAlpine (Children's Hospital of British Columbia): "It is hard to overstate what a terrible decision this is. RFK Jr. has no medical training. He is a hardcore anti-vaccine and misinformation peddler. The last time he meddled in a state's medical affairs (Samoa), 83 children died of measles."
Howard Markel (University of Michigan): "We've gone back to the idea of 'Every man his own doctor.' It was a bad idea [in the 19th century] and it's even worse now."
Jonathan Reiner (George Washington University): "He fits with the pattern of hiring people who are not just unqualified for a Cabinet post, but unfit... Kennedy has already shown, over the last 10 years, his penchant for not just promoting unproved ideas, but for promoting disproven ideas."
Yep, the pros are not happy and are definitely not impressed.
We must admit, we don't entirely understand this pick (or the Tulsi Gabbard pick). In general, Trump favors long-term, hardcore loyalists, and neither Kennedy nor Gabbard fit the bill. Let us not forget that we are only about 2 months removed from Kennedy peddling his support to the highest bidder, depending on which major party candidate would grant him the juiciest concessions.
It is true, of course, that Kennedy, if confirmed, will do whatever crazy things Trump demands. But this doesn't explain the appointment satisfactorily either, in our view. We entirely understand the President-elect's desire to seed the Justice Department, or the intelligence services, or the State Department, with loyal lapdogs. Trump has things he wants to accomplish, corrupt or illegal as they might be. But does he REALLY want the nation's health management to be badly disrupted? Has he forgotten that the COVID pandemic is what effectively booted him out of office in the first place?
Our best guess, such as it is, is that Trump doesn't particularly trust RFK Jr., and doesn't particularly care about what Junior might do, but he DOES want to pander to the base, and a lot of the base buys what Kennedy is selling. Trump does not need votes anymore, but he loves adulation, and he also needs to move product (branded Bibles and tennis shoes and collectible NFT cards), so he's still motivated to keep his followers happy.
That said, there might well be a serious miscalculation here. Yes, much of the base eats up RFK Jr.'s views on vaccines and mask mandates and Big Medicine. However, Junior is also pro-choice, while the base is not. It's hard to accept that Trumpy voters will gladly accept someone who is on the wrong side of their single-biggest healthcare-related issue. Between Kennedy, and Matt Gaetz, and a few others, it's going to be quite the show when the Senate has to start wrestling with these confirmations.
Oh, one last thing. RFK Jr. did get a vote of confidence from an unexpected place, as the pick was lauded by... Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO). The Governor fired up his social media accounts for a long post that included such comments as this: "I hope he leans into personal choice on vaccines rather than bans (which I think are terrible, just like mandates) but what I'm most optimistic about is taking on big pharma and the corporate ag oligopoly to improve our health."
We note Polis' response for only one reason. Like most governors and senators, he looks in the mirror every day and sees a future president. Indeed, we tend to guess that this comment was meant to lay claim to the "centrist who can attract crossover votes" lane. Whatever the purpose was, his presidential aspirations (which were already dubious, given that he is gay and Jewish) are over. Polis does not seem to have noticed that while some Democrats and wacky independents hate vaccines, most Democrats like them very much, particularly with memories of the COVID pandemic still fresh. The Governor realized he had goofed, and followed up with a second posting about how he's a big vaccine fan, but we think he will not be able to live this down, even with 4 years to do so. (Z)
Another Saturday Night Massacre, that is. Speaking of Matt Gaetz, he was tapped to be Donald Trump's Attorney General for one reason, and one reason alone: Trump thinks that the now-former representative will follow any order, no matter how unethical or illegal, and thus will do the things that even Richard Nixon's Justice Department underlings refused to do.
Because Gaetz' selection is so... questionable, for lack of a better term, he got nearly as much attention yesterday as RFK Jr. did, despite the fact that Gaetz' appointment was actually announced Wednesday. There are really three different storylines worth noting. The first of those is that Trump chose Gaetz without bothering to walk the 20 feet to the office next door to his, so he could run the pick by incoming White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. True, 20 feet is right at the upper limit of Trump's range, but you'd think he'd at least pick up a phone and give Wiles a heads-up. This certainly does nothing for hopes that she would act as a moderating force once Trump retakes power.
Second, it looks more and more like Gaetz' premature resignation was designed to forestall the release of the report on him being compiled by the House Ethics Committee. The members of the committee were scheduled to meet this week for a discussion of next steps, and reportedly have now canceled that meeting. That said, the report might not stay secret, despite Gaetz' maneuvering. After all, these things have a way of leaking out, particularly when the leak would serve to embarrass Donald Trump. Perhaps more importantly, a sizable number of Republican senators have already made clear that they want to know what's in the report before they consider confirming Gaetz as attorney general. It certainly seems like there's something very damning in there, and the members of the red team don't want to get caught with egg on their faces if they confirm Gaetz and THEN some really bad dirt comes out. Lest we forget, this is a man who's been investigated for statutory rape.
And the Republicans' reticence brings us to the third storyline of the day. A not insignificant number of Republicans have been willing to publicly express, or at least hint at, their unhappiness with the nomination. Among them:
Susan Collins (ME): "I was shocked at the nomination."
Lisa Murkowski (AK): "I do not see him as a serious candidate."
Lindsey Graham (SC): "[Gaetz] will have some tough questions to answer."
Kevin Cramer (ND): "I have concerns that he can't get across the finish line, and we're gonna spend a lot of political capital... on something that, even if they got done, you'd have to wonder if it was worth it."
Markwayne Mullin (OK): "There's a lot of questions that are going to be out there. He's got to answer those questions."
Thom Tillis (NC): "I've got very few skills. Vote-counting is one. I think he's got a lot of work to do to get 50."
In addition, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) refused to commit to voting for Gaetz, while Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) was stunned when reporters broke the news to him, and could not come up with a response of any sort.
The message here could not be more clear. When senators say things like this to reporters, they are really speaking to an audience of one. And their message for that audience of one is: "You really should withdraw this nomination, because it's likely going to fail." The Wall Street Journal confirms that, in case there was any doubt, reporting: "People familiar with discussions among Senate Republicans said that far more than three of them are prepared to vote no if the matter comes to a vote, and some said there was already talk of trying to convince Trump to pull the nominee, or for Gaetz to voluntarily withdraw his name."
So, get your popcorn ready, because this could get very interesting. (Z)
For those who don't speak Spanish, and don't want to head over to Google Translate, "No Me Queda Mas" means "There's Nothing Left for Me." Donald Trump is populating the important positions in his administration very quickly, which means that there are some folks that are learning this week that there's not going to be a patronage position for them.
Indeed, one of the biggest stories yesterday was about two people who will not be getting an appointment. We know because Trump, classy fellow that he is, took to his dubious social media platform to rub their noses in it:
I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, to join the Trump Administration, which is currently in formation. I very much enjoyed and appreciated working with them previously, and would like to thank them for their service to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Haley, for her part, responded by telling reporters: "I had no interest in being in his Cabinet. He knew that... I have made it clear to everyone that I was not interested in the administration." Uh, huh. Does anyone believe, for one second, that if Trump had offered Haley, say, the State Department, she would not have jumped at the opportunity?
In addition to the non-appointment gloating, Trump also announced some actual appointments yesterday, over and above the selection of RFK Jr. to HHS. First, the President-elect picked Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) to head up the Department of the Interior. This was a pretty predictable pick, since Burgum has toted a Great Lake's worth of water for Trump during this cycle, and Interior usually goes to someone from the Western states. Assuming the confirmations go through, this also means that both Dakotas will lose their governors to Trump's Cabinet. We wonder if Kristi Noem and Burgum will sit next to each other. If so, he better not make her angry. We know how she tends to solve that particular problem.
Meanwhile, for Veterans Affairs, Trump has chosen former representative Doug Collins. Collins is qualified in that he is a military veteran, having served as a chaplain in the Air Force during the Iraq War. He is not qualified in that he has nothing in his background that prepares him to oversee a department with more than 400,000 employees. All of this said, the real reasons he was chosen are: (1) He is a Trump sycophant, (2) He is a Fox personality, and (3) He's a religious fundamentalist who will be tasked with rolling back VA support for abortion and birth control.
Trump also announced his selection for Solicitor General. This is an important job, but one that is relatively unknown. For any reader who is not familiar, the job of the Solicitor General is to represent the government in cases before the Supreme Court (when the government is a party, of course). Dean John Sauer is the choice; he's a Trump loyalist who argued the presidential immunity case before the Court. That certainly makes him well qualified for his new post.
And finally, there was one person yesterday who said "no." That would be Alina Habba, who was in line to be White House Press Secretary. She explained: "Although I love screaming from a podium I will be better served in other capacities." She provided no further detail, so we're left to guess why she wasn't interested. Maybe she kind of realizes she's not a good public speaker, and in particular that she tends to put her foot in her mouth, which means that she probably wouldn't last long as WHPS. Maybe she's worried she might have to say things that could put her law license in jeopardy. Maybe she makes a lot more as a lawyer than she would as WHPS ($180,000), and she did not want to stop the gravy train. Again, these are just guesses.
Let us conclude by noting one thing. There was much concern that, with much more experience under his belt, and much more time to plan, Trump would stack the government with much more competent people who would be much better at carrying out his plans. Thus far, broadly speaking, that's not really happening. He's picking people who are very loyal, who are Academy-Award-level performers of political theater, who know very little of how the federal bureaucracy actually works, and who generally have little patience for the painstaking work of governance, consensus-building, etc. That suggests a Trump administration v2.0 that will generate a LOT of headlines, and make a LOT of people angry, and produce a WHOLE LOT of lawsuits, but that will struggle to get things done. (Z)
"If you can't stand the heat," Harry S. Truman remarked, "get out of the kitchen." At this very moment, Donald Trump is being reminded that the kitchen is pretty cool when all you have to do is hold rallies, sit for interviews with Fox, and make grandiose promises. The kitchen gets much warmer once you actually have to start governing.
As we note above, domestic politics are going to be rocky for weeks, or months, or more, once Trump is inaugurated on January 20 of next year. And foreign affairs is not likely to be any easier. In particular, Vladimir Putin knows how to play Trump like a violin, and has been putting on something of a virtuoso performance this week. To wit:
That last part is the really interesting part. It could just mean that Russia did what it could to help Trump, and wants to be rewarded. On the other hand, it could mean that Russia did what it could to help Trump, Trump was party to the scheme, and the Russians are prepared to expose him if he doesn't play ball. It could also mean that the Russians have some other sort of kompromat, and the Russians are prepared to share it if he doesn't play ball. Either of the latter pair of scenarios would mean the Russian president was blackmailing the American president.
Whatever is going on, Trump would do well to figure out that he is not friends with Putin and that he cannot outmaneuver Putin. Of course, if Trump is in hock to Putin, then he's in real trouble, with no good way out. (Z)
Yesterday, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) reiterated that he is backing off his previous commitment not to vote for a judicial nominee if that nominee cannot attract at least one Republican vote. He explained that "we're in different times right now" and "my Republican friends are under the microscope." Shortly thereafter, as reader R.V. in Pittsburgh, PA, brings to our attention, the Senator celebrated his personal declaration of independence by voting against a nominee that had unanimous support from Democrats.
The nominee that Manchin opposed is Embry Kidd, who is nominated to a circuit court seat on the Eleventh Circuit. Kidd has a bachelor's degree from Emory and a J.D. from Yale Law School. He clerked for a federal judge, worked in private practice for several years, served as an assistant U.S. Attorney for several more years, and has been a magistrate judge for the Middle District of Florida for the last 5 years. He is also Black. Manchin did not explain his vote, so we are left to guess which part of this résumé the elderly white guy from West Virginia found disagreeable.
Kidd will probably still get confirmed when the final vote is held, because he's got the support of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and because several Republicans are not in Washington right now, or are in Washington but are not showing up for work (ahem, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio). What this story shows is that Manchin is going to remain inscrutable until the day he leaves the Senate. He will probably vote for some judicial nominees and against others, and nobody but Manchin will know why he voted the way he did. (Z)
The dust is settling and normal order is returning, and so the headline theme is back. The last Friday we did this was October 25—that is to say, 3 weeks ago. We actually gave two hints that day, noting that we had to cut an item that would have been headlined "Can Your 'Puter Tell You Who's Going to Win the Election?" and also that "solving the puzzle will likely require a lot of mettle." And over the weekend, we gave a third hint: "We already noted that solving this week's theme will take some mettle. We'll add that if you do it, you probably should get a medal." And now, the solution, courtesy of T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts:
The headlines today contain homophones for a type of metal:Your first hint offered up "'Puter" (Pewter), while the second hint mentioned "mettle" (Metal) and the third also mentioned "medal" (Metal).
- Endorsement Watch: More Republicans Prefer Brains over Brawns—Bronze
- I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: To Produce Paprika, You Need a Sodder—Solder
- This Week in Schadenfreude: For One Artist, 1/6 Led to Inspiration—Lead
- This Week in Freudenfreude: Stopping the Steal—Steel
Exactly right. The headline for this item has "Ten" (Tin), which is a little bit of a stretch. However, it's a song title, and in the actual song, Biggie Smalls' Brooklyn accent makes "Ten" sound very much like "Tin."
Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:
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Now, if K.H. in Grosse Pointe can't come up with the solution, is that a Grosse Pointe Blank?
As to this week's theme, it relies on all the words to the right of the colons. Indeed, we've pretty much revealed that they're all song titles, so that means the Trivial Pursuit category is music. For a hint, we'll note that the theme is actually kind of dark, but we chose it because it's complementary to an element of the Schadenfreude item.
If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com, ideally with the subject "November 15 Headlines." (Z)
We presume that so many tears are what Alex Jones is producing these days, as his onetime empire is torn asunder before his very eyes. There are few better candidates for some schadenfreude, as he has utilized the suffering of families who lost their children to gun violence, not to mention the gullibility of the sort of Americans who think RFK Jr. is a healthcare "expert," to enrich himself.
It would seem that we are not the only ones who feel this way. Yesterday, the first thing (Z) did was check his phone, to see a breaking news alert about Jones (and his website, InfoWars). The immediate response: "Well, guess I won't have to spend any time today looking for a schadenfreude item." About 10 minutes later, (Z) sat down at the computer, and took a look at the various e-mail accounts. There were already at least 50 messages from readers suggesting that the Jones news should be the subject of this week's "Schadenfreude" item.
So, what was the story? Well, for those who have not already heard, with the backing of the Sandy Hook families who have a billon-dollar judgment against Jones, the rights to the InfoWars website, name and intellectual property have been sold to... the satirical newspaper/website The Onion. It's rather hard to imagine a better owner.
What, exactly, does The Onion plan to do with their new purchase? It had a sister site called Clickhole, now owned by the folks behind the popular game Cards Against Humanity, which satirizes the sites that produce clickbait, with ridiculous "meme-worthy" items like "Heartbreaking: Joe Rogan Just Died During A Test Of His Own Design To See If Men Are Stronger Than Ghosts," "Preventing The Worst: Democrats Just Trump-Proofed The Nation By Passing Legislation Ensuring Syrup Can Never Be Named 'Aunt Jemima' Again," and "Know What You're Getting Into: 6 Consequences You'll Probably Face For Intentionally Urinating Yourself At The Barbershop." The new and improved InfoWars will be similar, but with a particular focus on mocking the sort of "health" products that Jones sells (and that are favored by the incoming Secretary of Health and Human Services).
And it gets better, still. For the next several years, the relaunched InfoWars will have just one advertiser: the anti-violence organization Everytown for Gun Safety. So, the new site will specifically be designed to give a poke in the eye to anyone who has profited from phony health products and/or gun violence. Sound like anyone you might have heard of? Say, four paragraphs ago?
As reader A.R. in Los Angeles, CA, observes: "If this isn't schadenfreude, I don't know what is!" Reader A.J.J. in San Francisco, CA, adds: "I hope Electoral-Vote.com sends a thank you note to The Onion for giving you the easiest Schadenfreude of the Week entry ever. The news that the rulers of online satire bought InfoWars was the happiest news I've seen this week. And all in time for your Friday edition, too. That's respect." And T.W. in Norfolk, England, UK, says: "The Onion! I mean... THE ONION!"
We agree entirely. If we didn't choose this story, then we might as well shut this feature down, because what are we doing here? But we did choose it. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. (Z)
Since we're a politics-themed site, these "Schadenfreude" and "Freudenfreude" items have to have at least some vague connection to politics. And upbeat politics-oriented news is a bit hard to come by right now, for obvious reasons. So, we're going to run with something we've been holding in reserve for a while.
The key figure in this particular story is Jenny Nguyen, who lives in Portland, OR, and who is a fan of sports. Women's sports, specifically. And she noticed that all the sports bars she visited tended to show only men's sports. (Z) has been to many sports bars, and can confirm that observation. It's almost exclusively MLB, the NBA, the NFL and EPL. He cannot remember ever having seen women's sports at a sports bar, except during the Women's World Cup.
In any event, Nguyen decided to do something about this problem, and so raised the funds to open a women's sports-focused sports bar in her hometown, which she named The Sports Bra. Go back and read that again, if you did not pick up on the bit the first time. She did not have too much trouble getting capital for a business that is owned by a woman, a person of color and a member of the LGBT community. The menu is a blend of sports-bar classics (nachos, Philly cheesesteaks) and recipes that Nguyen learned from her mother and aunt (Vietnamese-style wings, Vietnamese baby back ribs). If there is anything more Portland than a women's-sports-focused sports bar that is owned by a lesbian and serves Vietnamese food, we don't know what that might be.
The Sports Bra has been open for a couple of years at this point, and has become pretty enmeshed in its community. For example, it will once again be doing "Gracegiving" this year, where food is prepared and served for those who cannot afford a Thanksgiving dinner. It also holds various specialty events, and produces a blog on women's sports. Perhaps most importantly, the bar is profitable, enough so that it's franchising, and similar businesses are opening across the U.S.
The political angle might not be immediately obvious. If it's not, well, the U.S. just went through an election where women's sports were used in a cynical and largely dishonest fashion. We'd be willing to bet large sums of money that a lot of people who were focused on that issue in 2024 didn't give a damn about women's sports 2 years ago, and will go back to not giving a damn about women's sports once it's no longer a culture wars issue. Nguyen, by contrast, is using women's sports to unify and inspire, which is a rather better thing, we would say.
So, kudos to her, and have a good weekend, all! (Z)