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New polls: _PRES_NEWP
Dem pickups: _PRES_DEM_PICKUPS
GOP pickups: _PRES_GOP_PICKUPS
Note: We need to recuperate from staying up all night on Election Night and then writing pages for the following days, so other than the news items below, we will take off the weekend but will be back Monday.
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Trump Wins Nevada
Even though Nevada has been trending blue in recent years, Donald Trump won a solid (by modern standards) victory in Nevada, picking up the state's 6 electoral votes 51%-47%. There was a huge battle over Latinos, who make up one-fifth of the registered voters. They have historically been Democrats but many of them voted for Trump this year.
Trump's proposal to end taxes on tips was also popular with the many people who work in the state's hospitality industries. Whether he follows through on that remains to be seen since such a proposal is extremely sensitive to fraud and difficult to enforce since many salaried people are sure to try to reclassify some of their earnings as tips. Also, the hit to the budget will be severe.
The only state not yet called in the presidential race is Arizona. (V)
Two More Senate Races Have Been Called
The AP has now called two more Senate races. In Pennsylvania, hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who lives in Connecticut, beat long-time Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), thus ending the dynasty that began with his two-term governor father, Bob Casey Sr. There are still 91,000 votes to be counted counted, but they are all in strongly red areas, so McCormick's current margin of 41,000 votes will only grow as more votes are tallied.
Casey won Philadelphia with 78% of the vote, but that is less than the 86% he won in 2018. We don't have exit polls yet, but the difference could be due to young Black men who normally don't vote but came out to vote for Trump and while they were at it, voted for the guy Trump endorsed (McCormick). Practically everywhere else in the state, except the Pittsburgh area, McCormick won big time.
The other Senate race that the AP has called is in Nevada. There Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) beat Army veteran Sam Brown in a surprisingly close race. She got about 47.8% to Brown's 46.4%, even though she had been leading by more earlier in the year. Rosen won Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Remo). Brown won every other county by huge margins, including Eureka County by 71 points. Fortunately for Rosen, not many people live in Eureka County, where she got 10% of the votes to Brown's 81%.
The only Senate race not yet called is Arizona, where Kari Lake is doing better than expected and only 82% of the vote has been tallied. The vote there was not as lopsided as in Nevada. Gallego is leading in five counties and Lake is leading in 10 counties. Fortunately for Gallego, he is leading in the two biggest counties, Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tuscon). If Gallego wins, Lake will probably claim to be both governor (on account of her 2022 "win") and senator. Maybe she will run for attorney general in 2026 and then claim some sort of personal "trifecta" as governor, senator, and AG.
If Gallego hangs on and wins this one, the Democrats will have 47 seats in the Senate and the Republicans will have 53 seats. That is a big enough margin that Trump will be able to get bills and nominations through even if Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) join the Democrats on some votes. Functionally, it is a working majority. Of course, if the fillibuster remains intact, Democrats will fillibuster much legislation, forcing the Republicans to do something they have long opposed, namely killing the fillibuster or accept defeat. Trump does not do defeat well.
As of this morning, the Democrats have 200 seats in the House and Republicans have 212. This is a net pickup of two seats for the Republicans, with 23 seats still up for grabs. (V)
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