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Thanks for the many kind messages in response to yesterday's posting! It's a good community, even if a few Blue Meanies sneak in on occasion. Anyhow, no day off, because there was some news we just couldn't let pass. Today's post is on the short side, but something is better than nothing, right?
Trump Legal News, Part I: Stormy Weather (aka The Trial, Day 13)
Monday's testimony was pretty bland. Tuesday's testimony was not. Here are the main storylines:
- X Marks the Spot: Porn star and Donald Trump paramour Stormy Daniels took the stand yesterday
to discuss two things. The first, which involved some graphic detail, was her intimate encounter with Trump. Daniels got
in enough detail to make clear that they really did make
the beast with two backs,
but the Judge cut her off several times, keeping things at roughly a PG-13 level. Oh and boxers, not briefs, in case
you were wondering.
The second topic of discussion was the payment scheme by which Daniels' silence was purchased. Pretty much every link in the chain besides Michael Cohen has now testified, and they're all saying the same thing. Reportedly, the jury was rapt while Daniels was on the stand. Not surprising, we suppose. After all, sex sells. - Character Assassination: The prosecution worked hard to establish Daniels as a credible
witness, talking about how she only got into pornography to support her daughter, and how she's a dutiful mother, etc.
The defense tried to tear her down, painting Daniels as a wanton slut who is willing to say anything for money. You can
probably guess that Team Trump let a female lawyer, Susan Necheles, handle that part of the cross-examination. The
general consensus seems to be that Daniels painted such a vivid picture of her encounter with Trump that there can be no
real doubt as to its having happened. And that's really the main thing the prosecution needed her to establish.
- No Mistrial: Immediately after the Daniels testimony, Trump's lawyers asked for a
mistrial, arguing that her appearance was prejudicial. "This is the kind of testimony that makes it impossible to come
back from," said Trump lawyer Todd Blanche. Merchan granted that Daniels' testimony was a bit off the hook, but denied
the motion for a mistrial. He also added: "I will note that where there were objections, the objections were for the
most part sustained. I'll also note that I was surprised that there were not more objections." Translation: "Looks like
you're on a fishing expedition, counsel, since you didn't much seem to mind the testimony while it was underway."
- Shut the Fu** Up: Merchan chewed out Blanche, as a proxy for Trump, warning: "I understand that your client is upset at this point, but he is cursing audibly, and he is shaking his head visually and that's contemptuous. It has the potential to intimidate the witness and the jury can see that." Blanche apparently blanched, and said he'd take care of it. Good luck, counselor.
They had a relatively short day yesterday, and they are off today, of course. Cohen has to be up pretty soon, right? (Z)
Trump Legal News, Part II: Always and Forever
Because there is so much Trump legal news on the Stormy front, this one almost snuck in under the (doppler) radar. In fact, it's almost like it was designed to sneak in under the radar. In any event, Judge Aileen Cannon announced yesterday that she has decided to indefinitely postpone Donald Trump's classified documents trial.
It was exceedingly unlikely that the original trial date would hold, as the original trial date was May 20. That's less than 2 weeks away, of course, and there are many pre-trial matters that have not been decided. Of course, a big part of the reason they haven't been decided is because Cannon has been dragging her feet. That said, even if she was a model of efficiency and competence, Trump is rather busy elsewhere right now, so that would presumably have killed the May 20 start date anyhow.
Special Counsel Jack Smith has proposed that the new start date be July 8, but Cannon also issued an order yesterday that lays out a timeline for addressing the many, many unresolved pre-trial questions, and that timeline goes through July 10. She also implied that she's not going to calendar the trial until everything is addressed. So, not only will the trial not start on July 8, there probably won't even be a trial date by July 8.
At this point, whether it's incompetence, or being in the bag for Trump, or both, you have to assume Cannon is not going to let this thing get to trial before November. Maybe she'll surprise us, but we doubt it. That leaves Scott McAfee in Georgia, who's given no indication of what timeline he will follow (Fulton DA Fani Willis wants an August trial date), and Tanya Chutkan, who is waiting to learn if presidents are, or are not, above the law.
Our guess, keeping in mind that we are not lawyers, is that the Chutkan trial is going to happen before the election. The Supreme Court is not going to give Trump blanket immunity, and Chutkan is a no-nonsense judge, and seems likely to decide that if Trump really wanted to be out campaigning in July or August or September, that's unfortunate for him, and he should not have gotten himself in the position of being on trial in the summer. We shall see how prescient our crystal ball is, here. (Z)
Hoosiers Head to the Polls
The good people of Indiana, who get very unhappy if we slip up and call them Indianans, headed to the polls yesterday. Here are the most interesting results:
- President: Yet again, Nikki Haley pulled in about 1/5 of the Republican primary vote (21.7%,
in this case). Indiana has a partly open primary, so there could be some ratf**king here, but this result is pretty
consistent across all states, even those with closed primaries. What those Haley voters do in the general will be a
big story on Election Day.
- Governor: Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) decided he would like to replace the term-limited Gov.
Eric Holcomb (R-IN). It's been a tough campaign, and Braun was dogged by stories about his financial ties to China.
However, he easily won the nomination with 39.6% of the vote (nearly 18% more than his nearest competitor in the
multi-way primary). He is now going to be elected governor, given that the state is very red and hasn't elected a
Democrat as governor since 2001. Braun's central campaign plank is that he's going to be tough on crime. By the
standards of Indiana, a state not exactly known for being soft on crime, that probably means bringing back public
flayings and the Iron Maiden.
- U.S. Senate: Valerie McCray easily won the right to be the Democratic standard bearer,
claiming 68% of the vote. She is a Black woman who is basing her campaign on abortion access. That is a pretty good
match for next-door Illinois, not so much for Indiana. So, barring some sort of miracle, she's going to lose to Rep. Jim
Banks (R-IN). Incidentally, about 180,000 people voted in the competitive Democratic Senate primary, And about 600,000
people voted in the competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. You see the problem for McCray.
- IN-01: There is exactly one congressional district in Indiana, among the nine there, with
a PVI that is NOT in double digits. That's IN-01, which is essentially Chicago suburbs, and so is D+3. The incumbent,
Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D-IN) was unopposed, though apparently not having to campaign still did not give him time to find
the missing vowels from his last name. He found out yesterday that he'll face off against Lake County Councilman Randy
Niemeyer (R), who looks like Alex Jones, and whose platform is a collection of platitudes: "[S]top the rising taxes and
inflation, cut the red tape hurting small businesses, bring back public safety, and restore American energy
independence." He's one of the few major-party candidates for federal office we've ever seen whose
website
did not have an "issues" page. We don't love his chances.
- IN-05: This district is not competitive (it's R+11), but it had a competitive Republican primary because of the "I'm retired... just kidding" Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN). She got a little bit of a scare from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-IN), but in the end knocked him off, 39.1% to 33.2%. So, she's going to win and serve another term.
Not too much, and yet more news than you might expect out of what is essentially a one-party state. Three more states take their turns next week: Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia. (Z)
Greene Party on Hold
Welcome to America's most boring soap opera. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) really does not want to back off of her threat to try to deprive Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) of his gavel. After all, she feeds off of stupid stunts like this, in the way a vampire feeds off of blood. However, she's under a lot of pressure from her Republican colleagues, even many of the nutty ones, not to do it. Plus, if she does pull the trigger, she's going to fail, and end up with egg all over her face.
Johnson, who continues to display far, far more political acumen than his predecessor, met with Greene to discuss the situation yesterday. At that meeting, she laid out a list of demands:
- Only allow a bill to be voted on if a majority of Republicans support it.
- No more Ukraine funding.
- Completely defund the Justice Department prosecutions against Trump.
- Shut down the government or impose an automatic 1 percent cut across the board if all twelve appropriations bills are not passed on time.
These are, on the whole, kinda dumb. Ukraine already has its money, which will last until after the election. Defunding small slices of one executive department is a near impossibility. Johnson already doesn't bring bills to the floor unless they are supported by at least half his caucus. And Marge Greene is most certainly not going to be the one to break Congress of its habit of passing the budget late every damn year.
Nonetheless, Johnson's listening to Greene and hearing her demands allowed her to save face, and to declare that she got something valuable out of her threat to vacate the chair. She said yesterday that she's putting it on the back burner for now. A smart politician would know to let the matter drop. We'll see if one of them tells Greene that. (Z)
Scavenger Hunt, Part VIII: Punchlines...
There are many reasons that a little cheer is called for right now. And readers will recall that last July 4, we invited scavenger hunt submissions. As a reminder, these were the prompts for things readers were asked to send in:
- The single photograph or image that best encapsulates the Trump presidency. (click here and here)
- Something that would make a terrible Christmas gift for Joe Biden. (click here)
- A book that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would never, ever read. (click here)
- A t-shirt that would be very apropos for Chief Justice John Roberts to wear. (click here and here)
- The wisest, most insightful, or most pithy quote ever to be uttered by a politician or political figure (need not be limited to Americans). (click here)
- The worst bumper sticker, button, yard sign or other campaign-related ephemera in U.S. history. (Still time to submit here)
- A portrayal of a key figure in U.S. history—image, song, verse, book, etc.—that is even more ridiculous than Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. (Still time to submit here)
- This isn't exactly a scavenger hunt type question, but we're going with it anyhow. Finish this joke: "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Hillary Clinton walk into a bar..." (Still time to submit here)
We still have those responses on file, waiting for the right time to return to them. Today is that day, especially since we plan to do the same THIS July 4, and need to clear the decks. We'll work through everything, but we felt today like jumping to the end of the list. So, "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Hillary Clinton walk into a bar..."
- A.R. in Los Angeles, CA: ...and only Hillary is smart enough to duck under it.
- M.S. in Canton, NY: ...and the bartender says, "Hey, I never expected to see you three
together! What's up?"
One of them answers: "We realized that if we worked together, we could solve the country's debt problem. Each of us is going to issue specialty bonds: Clinton bonds, DeSantis bonds, and Trump bonds. Clinton bonds have no principle, DeSantis bonds get no interest, and Trump bonds never mature." - S.D. in St Paul, MN: ...and Trump takes some cheap shots; Clinton had a shot but blew it;
DeSantis never had a shot.
- S.S. in Santa Monica, CA: ...and the friendly mixologist, used to serving America's most
famous and powerful people, is completely prepared for the moment. "Secretary Clinton, may I offer you a glass of
Chardonnay? A pint of Guinness for you, Governor DeSantis? Mr. President, your usual Diet Coke this evening?"
All three nod their heads and smile with approval at the bartender's perfectly researched suggestions. After the drinks are served, the bartender hands them their bill. "That'll be $12.50, Secretary Clinton. Governor, yours is $12.50 as well. Mr. President, yours comes to $13,012.50. Thank you, everyone!"
Trump bellows, "Barman! Why is my Diet Coke $13,000 more than their drinks?"
The bartender looks Trump square in the eye and says, "Because I won't need a lawyer to collect their tabs."
- D.C. in South Elgin, IL: ...and the barkeep says, "Hey! Look! A woman with TWO
a**holes!"
- G.C. in Alexandra, VA: ...and as the waiter approaches he asks each of them what they
want. Trump asks for a diet soda; DeSantis asks for anything but a Bud Light; and Hillary asks for a different server.
- C.T.P. in Lancaster, PA: ..and Hillary Clinton says, "With these two as my companions, this
definitely is not a 'dumb blonde' joke!"
- J.F. in Fort Worth, TX: ...and the bartender says, "I'm sorry, ma'am, but you can't bring
children in here."
- J.H. in Wellington, New Zealand: ...and the bartender says "Cosmopolitan, Harvey
Wallbanger, and a Moscow Mule, coming right up."
- T.F. in Austin, TX: ...Clinton looks around the room and declares the clientele to be
deplorable. She turns around and leaves.
DeSantis loudly declares the black, red, and white dartboard to be too woke. He turns around and leaves.
Trump confidently walks up to the bartender and loudly asks: "Is this the place that all my lawyers keep getting kicked out of?"
We'll have more responses in the near future. (Z)
Today's Presidential Polls
Both results are within the margin of error, and both pollsters have a Republican lean. So, it works well that these results cause our map to rate Pennsylvania as barely GOP. (Z)
| State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Pennsylvania | 41% | 44% | Apr 15 | Apr 25 | Muhlenberg Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | 45% | 49% | Apr 24 | Apr 30 | Fabrizio + Anzalone |
Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.
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