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Mar13

Forgive Our Presumption...

In a devastating turn of events for Jason Palmer and the mononymous "Uncommitted," Joe Biden and Donald Trump are going to be your major-party presidential nominees in 2024. We thought it would take another week to be official, but neglected to notice that Florida canceled its primaries. Guess they're too busy burning books or something. Anyhow, with those two large caches of delegates awarded to the two candidates, each of them has enough delegates to have clinched their respective nominations, as of last night. They are now presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

Here are the results from yesterday's Republican primaries and caucuses, along with how Donald Trump performed relative to the polling (in those states where there WERE polls):

State	1st Place	2nd Place	Prediction	Trump Perf.
Georgia	Donald Trump, 84.5%	Nikki Haley, 13.2%	80.8%	Over by 3.7%
Mississippi	Donald Trump, 92.6%	Nikki Haley, 5.3%	N/A	N/A
Washington	Donald Trump, 74.2%	Nikki Haley, 21.7%	77%	Under by 2.8%
Hawaii	Donald Trump, 97%	Nikki Haley, 1.6%	N/A	N/A

Not much data to work with here, since polling of these states was pretty scarce. Trump overperformed in one state by a little bit and underperformed in another by a little bit, and even those are not necessarily meaningful because Nikki Haley ceased to be an active candidate just 6 days ago. In any event, now that the choice for Republican voters is either "Trump" or "someone who is not a Republican," the polls should get a bit more accurate.

And here are the results from yesterday's Democratic primaries and caucuses. None of the four states were polled on the Democratic side.

State	1st Place	2nd Place
Georgia	Joe Biden, 95.2%	Marianne Williamson, 3%
Mississippi	Joe Biden, 100%	N/A
Washington	Joe Biden, 86.7%	Uncommitted, 7.5%
Hawaii	Joe Biden, 66%	Uncommitted, 29.1%

Note that Georgia does not offer an "uncommitted" option, Biden was the only candidate on the ballot in the Mississippi Democratic primary, and Hawaii Democrats actually held their caucus on Thursday of last week.

In any case, the important story is that each candidate has more than 50% of their party's delegates locked up. Trump needs 1,215 and has 1,241. Biden needs 1,968 and has 2,107. So, the general election campaign has officially begun. (Z)

Donald Trump: Less Money, Mo' Problems

That's not exactly how Biggie Smalls had it, but then again, Donald Trump has always been one to do things differently.

With the general election campaign underway, Donald Trump has some liabilities that were not particularly present during his previous two runs for the big job, but that have shown themselves this time around. Here's a list of the ones that particularly stand out:

Age: By the calendar, Donald Trump isn't quite as old as Joe Biden, but he's not far off. In terms of mileage on the brain and on the body, Trump may be so much older that he's lapped Biden. Certainly, for all the talk of Biden's mental decline, Trump is actually the one who more frequently botches his words and otherwise stumbles verbally. That may be because Trump is on stage/on camera more often, but it might also be because Trump has declined further. Or, it could be both. Thus far, there has been relatively little talk about Trump's mental decline (some, but not much). That is probably because his fans are used to it, while the media tends to find other things to talk about. That said, Trump will eventually have to make appearances that are not before a friendly, captive audience. And those could be eye-openers for some people who don't follow him closely.
Out of Money, Part I: We've written this several times, but now it's becoming "a story." Trump needs to pay for his lawyers, and he's going to raid his campaign coffers (and the RNC's coffers) as much as he can in order to do so. This will be at least a single whammy, in that it will leave less cash for campaigning. It could well be a double whammy in that donations might dry up if supporters think that their money is going to his lawyers instead of into his presidential bid. One potential byproduct of this that would be very noticeable is that he might have to cut way back on the number of rallies he holds.
Out of Money, Part II: Trump needs $500 million in cash to meet his legal liabilities, and he clearly doesn't have it. That means he is going to end up in the debt of some person or entity, or multiple persons or entities, that would benefit from having a "friendly" president in the White House. This does not mean that corruption is inevitable, but it does mean the chances are pretty high.

How does this affect Trump's electability? Well, a big part of his appeal in 2016 and 2020 was that he shot from the hip, and was largely unafraid to say whatever came into his mind. That made him "authentic." But if he's been bought and paid for on some subject, he just can't afford to do that anymore. For example, he has been a longtime critic of TikTok, a position that blends Republicans' hatred of social media and their hatred of China. Trump even tried to ban TikTok via executive order while he was in the White House.

This week, however, Trump met with Jeff Yass, who just so happens to own a big chunk of the company that owns TikTok. In a truly stunning coincidence, Trump then announced that TikTok is great, and that it's actually Facebook that's the enemy of the people. Who knows what Yass offered. Maybe nothing. Maybe a bit of assistance with that $500 million in bonds. Since Yass is worth north of $34 billion, he could make a loan like that without breaking a sweat. And even if there was no funny business here—which is a bit hard to swallow—the fact is that lots of people and entities that would be happy to pay a bribe are thinking that Trump is for sale. For example, Josh Rogin speculates that Trump's China policy might be for sale. What happens when and if Trump can't rail against TikTok, "Jina," and some of his other favorite bugaboos?
Need to Win: On a similar point, Trump not only needs money, he also really needs to win. In part, it's an ego thing. In larger part, it's his best (and maybe only) means of staying out of prison. In his previous two campaigns, particularly the one in 2016, winning wasn't nearly as important to him, which freed him to say whatever damn thing came into his mind. These days, he is much more obviously trying to be more "politic." And again, that runs contrary to his "authentic" image.
Incumbent Opponent: In 2016, Barack Obama was term-limited, while in 2020, Trump was the incumbent. This is the first time that The Donald has faced an actual sitting president. And the advantage a sitting president has, among other things, is that they can put forward actual policy. In other words, Hillary Clinton can SAY she's going to ask Congress to, for example, cancel student loans, but Biden can actually do so, anytime he wants. That means that Biden has a much more potent arsenal at his command than he had in 2020, or Hillary Clinton had in 2016. And early indications are that he knows how to use it. Take note, for example, of how the Biden campaign maneuvered Trump into announcing his willingness to cut Social Security and Medicare.

We do not believe, in any way, that this is a normal election in which voters who abandon one candidate promptly climb on board with the other. There will be some of that, but not a lot. Much more important for each candidate will be getting their voters to the polls. And Trump, in particular, needs to get his base fired up, so that they show up in huge numbers. The issues here could cause some of his base to lose interest or lose hope, and to just stay home on Election Day. And if so, he's in deep trouble. (Z)

Anti-Trump Group Will Spend $50 Million

Now that the general election is locked and loaded, the PAC Republican Voters Against Trump is ready to get to work. And so, the group announced yesterday that it's going to spend $50 million running anti-Trump ads in swing states.

We are generally skeptical that, in 2024, advertising will have all that much impact. However, there are three things that cause us to take note of this particular story. First, $50 million is quite a bit of money. Second, if the Trump campaign is short on money (see above), then anti-Trump ads may suck up most of the oxygen due to lack of pushback from pro-Trump ads. Third, and most important, the plan for the $50 million campaign is to film former Trump voters explaining why they just can't do it again. That's a pretty effective approach, since the people the ads are trying to reach are less likely to feel attacked and to get defensive. It's the difference between "You're foolish to vote for Trump because..." and "I get why you voted for Trump, because I did it too, but here's the problem with doing it again..." So, this campaign might actually make a small dent. And in an election that figures to be close, even small dents could matter. (Z)

Hur Testifies

Robert Hur, former special counsel, testified before the House Judiciary Committee yesterday, discussing with them his report on the classified documents found at Joe Biden's residences and office.

The reason that Hur is now "former special counsel" is that he resigned from the Department of Justice on Monday, so that he would not be bound by the ethical rules that constrain DoJ staff. He also wouldn't rule out, during his testimony, that he may be interested in serving in a second Trump administration. Neither of these things help Hur's case that he is fair and balanced.

The squabbling that took place during the hearing is, in our view, largely uninteresting. As you might expect, partisans on both sides of the aisle engaged in a fair bit of grandstanding. The main takeaway is that the Democrats hammered Hur for reaching conclusions that he was not qualified to reach (e.g., about Biden's mental capacity), while the Republicans hammered him for not bringing charges against the President. We suspect that Hur's odds of future government employment are not good, regardless of what party controls the White House.

The far more important story, we think, is that The Washington Post laid hands on the transcript of Hur's conversation with Biden, and it turns out that both men were guilty of mischaracterizing what happened. Hur, readers will remember, claimed that the President could not remember when his son died. In truth, Biden remembered the exact month and day, and then, before he had a chance to add the year, a couple of other people in the room volunteered it. Thereafter, the President launched into an extended narrative of what happened after Beau Biden passed, and how that influenced his decision not to mount a campaign for president. This simply is not a description of someone whose mind is failing him.

Meanwhile, as Biden defended himself following the release of the report, he and his surrogates insinuated that Hur was kind of an aggressive jerk during portions of the questioning. This does not appear to be an accurate characterization, either. A transcript cannot capture tone of voice or body language, of course, but during the questioning about Beau Biden, for example, Hur said: "Just allow me to say for a moment, I am so terribly, terribly sorry for your loss." That simply is not a description of someone who is behaving like a jerk.

When the Hur report was first released, we wrote:

Hur did not make available his recordings of the interviews he alludes to, which means that not only is the voting public unable to judge his assessments for themselves, but also that there is zero context. For example, were the misstatements Hur alludes to cherry-picked, or are they examples of something that happened dozens of times? Did they appear to be actual misstatements, or were they potentially a byproduct of Biden's lifelong stuttering issues? Was Biden well-rested, or was he fatigued? Was he preoccupied with the previous day's attack in Israel?

We got a number of e-mails proposing that we were carrying the water for Biden, and/or acting like his PR staff. That item was written by a historian, and any historian that trusted someone else's description of the evidence in these circumstances, given that we are talking about a partisan actor, would be tossed out of the profession on their ear. This case illustrates why such caution is warranted.

In the end, we think this is about the end of the line for this story. Between the truths revealed in the transcript and Biden's performance at the State of the Union, the "feeble old man" bit has been put to bed for now. It may yet rise again, but if it does, it won't be because of Robert Hur. (Z)

Wait... Vice President WHO?

When it comes to getting attention for his third-party/independent presidential bid, the biggest arrow Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has left in his quiver is the announcement of a running mate. And it would seem that he's going to squeeze that for all it's worth, as yesterday he announced the names of two people said to be on his "short list": Former wrestler and Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura, and NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Since we don't know what Kennedy is trying to accomplish, it's hard to evaluate these choices. Well, it's hard to evaluate Ventura, at least. That is to say, Ventura obviously has a real political résumé, one that far outshines RFK Jr.'s (since RFK Jr. has never held office). And Ventura is basically a Libertarian, so if that party's nomination is what Kennedy fils is after, then The Body would be an asset. That said, the former governor is going to be 73 at the time of the election, which is not great when a main plank is "the other guys are too old." Also, Ventura has a long history of impolitic statements, scandals, stolen valor and other liabilities, and the last couple of years he was in office were a train wreck. So, he's a mixed bag, to say the least.

As to Rodgers, that is much easier to evaluate. The executive summary: "You can't be serious." The only thing Rodgers brings to the ticket, other than attracting the type of people who vote for Steve Garvey because he once won an MVP award, is that he and Kennedy are basically simpatico on conspiracy theories in general, and anti-vaxx conspiracies in particular. Well that, and Rodgers also hosted Jeopardy! for a couple of weeks. In addition to the fact that the former Green Bay Packer and current New York Jet is wholly unqualified for the vice presidency, he also has a day job that will require his attention at the height of the campaign cycle. The Jets will play their first game of the NFL season on September 8, though maybe Rodgers can get permission to skip out once the team is no longer in contention. In that case, he'll be available on September 9.

Kennedy also said he's considering Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) or former representative Tulsi Gabbard. Both of them are Libertarians in all but name, so that again suggests RFK Jr. is eyeing the Libertarian nomination. Certainly that is an easier way of getting on the ballot in most or all states, as opposed to doing it one-by-one. In any event, looking at this potential VP list, we've never seen such a dearth of "worthiness to serve as president," except when Sarah Palin dined alone. (Z)

The Buck Stops Here

Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has always been unpredictable, and yesterday, he unveiled what figures to be the final surprise of his career in Congress, issuing a statement saying that he is quitting, as of next week. He was already set to retire, but yesterday's announcement moved his departure date up by close to 10 months.

By all indications, Buck's colleagues had no idea this was coming. Even Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he was caught by surprise. According to Buck, he's jumping ship because the job has become miserable. He described the last year as the worst of his 9-year House career. Say what you will about Buck's politics, he's among the straightest of straight shooters, so he's probably telling the truth.

On a related point, as long as we're at it, the House Republican Conference is scheduled to have its annual "retreat" today and tomorrow, in West Virginia. However, less than half of the members will actually attend. Part of the reason, as many readers will know, is that "retreat" is really just code for "long, boring meeting(s)." However, the attendance for this year's House GOP retreat is particularly bad, for two reasons: (1) The members really don't want to go to West Virginia, and (2) The members largely don't like spending time with each other. This political party is badly broken, Exhibit #392.

Back to Buck, his departure will leave the House at 218R, 213D, which means that Johnson can only afford two defections on votes, assuming Democrats unanimously vote "no." Here's how things will unfold over the next several months:

The April 30 election of a replacement for Brian Higgins (D-NY) will likely make it 218R, 214D, dropping the margin of error to one vote.
The May 21 election of a replacement for Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will likely make it 219R, 214D, setting the margin of error back to two votes.
The June 11 election of a replacement for Bill Johnson (R-OH) will likely make it 220R, 214D, keeping the margin of error at two votes.
The June 25 election of a replacement for Buck will likely make it 221R, 214D, raising the margin of error to three votes.

Colorado allows local party organs to pick the candidates for special elections, so there will be no primary for Buck's replacement.

In practical terms, the various +1's and -1's probably don't matter that much. Johnson is largely unable to herd the Freedom Caucus cats, and so most of the legislation that has been passed by the House recently has been handled by suspending normal order. That means a two-thirds vote is needed for approval, which in turn means there has to be broad Democratic and Republican support, rendering the FC largely irrelevant. And that is precisely what they deserve. (Z)

Looking Forward to 2024, Part V: Reader Predictions, Elections Edition

Time did not allow for us to run more reader predictions last week, but now they are back. We have six more sets, so we shall try to get three in this week, and three more next week. Here's a list of the predictions that have run so far:

And now, 10 reader predictions about this year's elections:

E.B. in Seattle, WA: Bob Ferguson (D) will win Washington's gubernatorial election over Dave Reichert (R) by a minimum of 10 points. Ferguson is a popular state AG who won statewide election at least twice, the last time 56-43. Reichert is an empty suit whose only real claim to fame is that he was sheriff when Washington's most notorious serial killer was caught. He takes no real stand on any issue, making him no more than a Generic Republican. Any stances he is forced to take on the 2020 election, abortion, Trump's eligibility for office, etc. are either going to kill him with the Republican base or with the state's few moderate voters. (Potential Bonus Points: 24)
S.B. in Hadley, MA: Joe Biden will win the election, but it will take 10 days or more for the results to be finalized. (Potential Bonus Points: 57)
M.E. in Roanoke, VA: Relative to 2020, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada will flip. Texas will stay red, but be unexpectedly close and arguably enter swing-state territory (comparable relative margin to Michigan or Minnesota). (Potential Bonus Points: 75)
S.H. in Broken Arrow, OK: Biden will land a victory in the Electoral College with only a plurality of popular votes due to third-party candidates (Potential Bonus Points: 69)
R.P. in Brooklyn, NY: In a fit of narcissistic rage, Donald Trump will refer to Taylor Swift as "no-talent" and "not that pretty." Swifties will turn out to vote against Donald Trump in droves, and his poor decision to take on America's most popular entertainer will be cited as the final nail in Trump's coffin after an embarrassing electoral defeat in November. (Potential Bonus Points: 53)
D.C. in Delray Beach, FL: All states will be in the same columns as 2020 with the exception of North Carolina. (Potential Bonus Points: 54)
J.A. in Redwood City, CA: Having lost his bid for re-election, Joe Biden will spend the final weeks of 2024 filling as many vacancies in the federal judiciary as he can. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will declare California as a sanctuary state for all political refugees, both foreign and domestic; he will also announce his intention to run for president in 2028. Meanwhile, the largest ever wave of immigrants will cross into the U.S., knowing that entering the country after Trump is inaugurated will be much more difficult. (Potential Bonus Points: 84)
D.R. in Charlotte, NC: There will be a physical altercation on the floor of the Republican National Convention. (Potential Bonus Points: 48)
T.B. in Leon County, FL: Donald Trump will not be on the general election ballot in at least one state. (Potential Bonus Points: 77)
C.O. in East Lansing, MI: Massive protests by Republicans (angry at a Trump conviction) will attempt to disrupt the Democratic convention. A large police presence will be sent to prevent riots, but the convention will be made virtual again at the last minute. Republicans will present the police presence as "militarizing the government against its citizens," while simultaneously mocking the Democrats for canceling their convention. (Potential Bonus Points: 87)

If the readers go 10-for-10 here, then they'll earn 1,000 points for 10 correct predictions, along with 628 bonus points for degree of difficulty. That said, there's no way that 10-for-10 will happen, since some of the predictions contradict others.

The next set of predictions will be about Congress. (Z)

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