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This Is What They Call an "Unknown Unknown"

How many times have we written that a week, in politics, is a lifetime? It's gotta be hundreds, at least. Yesterday, that line came within a hair's breadth of becoming literally true, as Donald Trump was targeted in what was, according to the FBI, an assassination attempt.

With the caveat that many details are still sketchy, and the initial reporting of these things often turns out to be a little—or more than a little—inaccurate, here is what apparently happened. Trump was speaking during a late-afternoon/early-evening rally in Butler, PA, when multiple shots rang out. If you wish to see the footage, here it is:



It is not terribly violent, especially as compared to primetime American television, but if you don't like the sight of blood, don't watch. For those who did not see the footage, and do not wish to see the footage, Trump was in the midst of a harangue about Joe Biden and undocumented immigrants when he sensed something was wrong, and grabbed for his right ear. He quickly ducked behind his podium and then was covered bodily by a group of Secret Service agents. It's not visible in the footage, but one rallygoer was killed and another two were badly injured.

The Secret Service took some amount of time—10 seconds or so, which is an eternity in this particular circumstance—to identify the location from which the shots were issued, and to return fire, killing the would-be assassin. Here's a diagram of the scene; the shooter (#1) was on the roof of a building, viewing Trump from the side. Trump (#2) was standing near the front of the stage erected for purposes of the rally:

The roof with the shooter was part of a sizable complex of buildings; the Trump stage was in a fairly open area

The gap between the shooter and Trump has been variously reported as being as little as 120 yards and as much as 300 yards. There's a very good BBC video that painstakingly shows that the distance was 132.85 meters. Unfortunately, there is no known way to translate that into yards, which is the measure that God intended for people to use. So, the BBC's estimate will unfortunately be meaningless to all of our American readers.

In a development that should be a surprise to absolutely nobody, it took hours (if not less) for the first conspiracy theories to start circulating. The primary one, at least at the moment, is that this was a false flag operation staged by the Trump campaign in order to whip up support for the candidate heading into the Republican National Convention. This is an extremely dubious claim, particularly since the shooter lost his life. It's true that G. Gordon Liddy offered to stand on a street corner and be assassinated, so Richard Nixon could pin the entire Watergate mess on his (ostensibly deceased) underling. However, few others would enter into a conspiracy that ends with their death.

That said, there is one element of the currently emerging narrative that we think should be put in the "wait and see" category. Trump claims that one of the bullets that was fired grazed his head, and that is how he was injured and is why he began to bleed. There's even a video capture, one which passed muster with several major media outlets, that purports to show the bullet that did the job:

A thin whitish line shows, to the right of Trump's head

Perhaps that seals the deal. On the other hand, it would be quite a low percentage occurrence to fire a shot from the side of a person, and only hit the top of their ear. Further, digital video does sometimes have random artifacts and is sometimes digitally manipulated. Add it up, and it's at least possible that what actually struck Trump (and, maybe, what is actually seen in the video footage) is not one of the bullets, but instead shrapnel from a bullet strike to something else, like the podium.

In any case, late in the day yesterday, the FBI identified the shooter. He was 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, and he lived in Bethel Park, PA, which is about 45 miles south of where the rally took place. The good news is that he was not an ethnic or religious minority, and he was a registered Republican (though he did once donate $15 to a progressive-aligned group). The reason these things are good news, as sad as it is to say, is that there will be considerably less impetus for vigilante "revenge" while things shake out over the next few days. At the moment, it is not known what Crooks' motivation for the shooting was; the FBI is busy talking to relatives and acquaintances and has also asked anyone who might have information to call the Bureau's tip line (1-800-CALL-FBI).

We were all prepared to do a full slate of reader letters and questions today, but this is yet another one of those stories that pushes everything else aside. Not only is time an issue, both in terms of how much time we have to prepare each day's posting and also how much time we can ask readers to invest on any given day, but it also just does not work, tonally, to mesh BIG news with other things. We really hope normal order can resume next weekend. And, with that said:

Republicans' Response

As we have written numerous times, Trump does not actually have all that much in common with his fellow Republican president, Ronald Reagan. However, one thing they do share is a powerful instinct for showmanship. Despite being injured, and despite being dragged offstage by a phalanx of Secret Service officers, the former president had the presence of mind to do this:

Trump raises a fist, in the style of Malcolm X

That's a powerful image, no doubt about it (and Trump was very fortunate there was a photographer there to catch the shot from below, which makes it much more visually impressive). If that image is not already available on t-shirts, it will be by the time the weekend is out.

After being treated at a hospital, he continued to play his cards just right, as he (or, more probably, an underling) posted this to his social media platform:

I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured. It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country. Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead. I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!

The emphasis is ours. Most of this is your standard, boilerplate, post-incident stuff. It's entirely appropriate, but could have been written by any PR pro in their sleep. But the bit about "our Country" connects this incident to Trump's narrative that the U.S. has become a hellhole under the leadership of Joe Biden, one that only Trump can fix. Clearly, the assassination attempt is about to become a core part of his stump speech.

As to other Republicans, the predominant theme in their response was joy. Many of them are convinced that this incident will increase Trump's support, and thus will secure victory for him in the election. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI)—who, keep in mind, has a history of fetishizing violence—said that "President Trump survives this attack—he just won the election." Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) concurred: "This will energize the base more than anything. And he, you know—with his fist in the air and he didn't want to leave. And he's yelling, fight, fight, fight. That'll be the slogan."

Other Republicans engaged in some opportunism, with a clear eye toward currying favor with the Dear Leader. Examples:

None of these responses bathe their respective sources in glory. However, the most vulgar response we saw yesterday was actually from everyone's favorite conservative-academic-pretending-to-still-be-a-liberal, Jonathan Turley. He whipped up an op-ed that begins thus:

The assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump left a nation stunned. But the most shocking aspect was that it was not nearly as surprising as it should have been. For months, politicians, the press and pundits have escalated reckless rhetoric in this campaign on both sides. That includes claims that Trump was set to kill democracy, unleash "death squads" and make homosexuals and reporters "disappear."

President Biden has stoked this rage rhetoric. In 2022, Biden held his controversial speech before Independence Hall where he denounced Trump supporters as enemies of the people. Biden recently referenced the speech and has embraced the claims that this could be our last democratic election.

I discuss this rage rhetoric in my new book, "The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage."

That's right. It took Turley just three paragraphs to not only blame Joe Biden, but also to use the incident to try to hawk copies of his latest book, available at finer bookstores everywhere. What an a** he is.

As long as we are on the subject, though, we agree with Turley (and others) that yesterday's shooting is not much of a surprise. After all, it's a country with lots of guns, with lots of heated rhetoric, and with intense polarization. It is also, incidentally, a country with a lot of mentally ill people who have no real way to get the help they need. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) was shot, Paul Pelosi was attacked (by someone looking for his wife Nancy), and now it's happened again. And this won't be the last time. It might not even be the last time this cycle.

That said, we reject entirely the argument made by Vance, Turley, et al. that the attack on Trump is due to the Democrats and/or Biden's presidential campaign. Highlighting your opponent's negative qualities is a product of the American electoral system, and always has been. There is zero problem in making dire predictions about what your opponent will do if they gain power, especially when those predictions are rooted in evidence, as they are in the case of Trump. Oh, and if villainizing your opponent IS wrong, well, Trump's hands are far from clean here. In fact, there may be no presidential candidate in history whose hands are dirtier when it comes to that particular issue.

The problem comes when a candidate (or their campaign) moves beyond mere villainization of their opponents, and starts talking about the use of violence as a legitimate means for countering their opponents. And we are not willing to entertain a "both sides do it" argument here; this is almost 100% coming from Trump, his acolytes, and his enablers in the media. Hundreds of times, Trump has called for violence against Mexican immigrants, up to and including an armed incursion into Mexico. When was the last time a Democrat called for violence against evangelicals, or for an armed incursion into Alabama? Trump called for Hillary Clinton to be locked up, without benefit of charge or trial, and then said Joe Biden should receive the same treatment. While Democrats certainly approve of Trump being held accountable for actual crimes he's been indicted for, none of them have called for Trump to be a victim of the sort of summary, drumhead-trial "justice" he regularly advocates. And just last week, the president of the Heritage Foundation threatened that if anyone opposed Trump during a second presidential term, there would be bloodshed. We don't recall, say, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) ever warning that people can either chose the Green New Deal or they will be put up against the wall.

No, there is no "both sides" here. It is one faction that has normalized violence as a political tool, and the J.D. Vances and Jonathan Turleys of the world should not be taken seriously when they make spurious arguments to the contrary.

Everyone Else's Response

In contrast to the Trump acolytes, Democrats responded to yesterday's shooting like grown-ups. Joe Biden had some strong, anti-violence words at a press conference. Thereafter, the President spoke to Trump on the phone to extend well-wishes, and issued the following statement:

I'm grateful to hear that he's safe and doing well. I'm praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information. Jill and I are grateful to the Secret Service for getting him to safety. There's no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.

The Biden campaign is also pausing all messaging, and is working to suspend its TV commercials as rapidly as is possible.

Kamala Harris said nearly the same thing in her statement:

Doug and I are relieved that he is not seriously injured. We are praying for him, his family, and all those who have been injured and impacted by this senseless shooting.

We are grateful to the United States Secret Service, first responders, and local authorities for their immediate action.

There were also messages along these lines from Bill and Hillary Clinton, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and a host of others.

International leaders also responded to the news. Here are a few examples:

We can find no indication that Russian president Vladimir Putin has, thus far, offered public comment.

Historical Parallels

We have not seen any "history of presidential assassinations" pieces, as yet, but surely they are coming. So, preemptively, we will say this: There is no historical parallel for what happened yesterday. The past has little or nothing to tell us about what will happen next. Here are the half-dozen closest analogues, such as they are:

In short, there are already a bunch of pieces out there talking about how this incident is going to boost Trump's support, and give his campaign a shot in the arm. Maybe so, but those are guesses, since there's no meaningful precedent to look to for guidance.

There is one historical fact that may be germane, though. After Lincoln was assassinated, both Northerners and Southerners made clear that his untimely death was a great tragedy. Except, as it turns out, many of the Southerners were lying through their teeth. Anything other than lamenting the death of Lincoln, in the immediate aftermath of his assassination, was unseemly at best, and risked significant consequences, at worst.

The point here is that social pressure/custom dictates a particular response to these kinds of events, especially in the days immediately following, but that response may not be genuine. So, if there are a bunch of polls in the next week or two that show Trump picking up a few points, take them with a few grains of salt, especially since these polls will also incorporate the traditional post-convention dead cat bounce. Wait until August, at very least, before reaching any conclusions about whether the trajectory of the race has actually changed.

Impact

Despite the fact that there is simply no way to know what comes next, that has not stopped pundits from making bold statements about the significance of yesterday's assassination attempt. Perhaps the most over-the-top piece we saw was this one from Politico's Jonathan Martin, which carries the headline: "Trump's Raised Fist Will Make History—And Define His Candidacy."

We wish we could tell you what the impact of this incident will be, but we just don't know. All we can give you is some theoretical possibilities:

  1. Trump the Martyr: As we note above, Trump is already setting things up so as to cast himself in the role of near-martyr, one who almost died because he dared to speak truth about how very far the U.S. has fallen. His devoted base will eat it up, but will anyone else?

  2. Trump the Weakling: This is a major plot point of a now-pretty-old Clint Eastwood movie called In the Line of Fire. In short, presidents and presidential candidates fear the scenario where they have to be rescued by the Secret Service because it makes them look weak before the voting public. We don't know how true that is, but we can say that while Trump looked pretty strong when he did the raised fist bit, he looked far less strong when he was diving underneath his podium. Much of his appeal lies in how macho he ostensibly is, and this incident could eat away at that.

  3. Trump the Scared Little Boy: Perhaps we should not say this, at this time, but our experience is that readers prefer that we not hold back. So, we will repeat something we've said many times before: Trump, like most bullies, is a coward. And when someone with that much fear has a near-death experience, well, there is no knowing how they will react. It would not surprise us in the least if the assassination attempt produces some sort of PTSD response for him. Of course, were that to come to pass, he would never, ever seek treatment. And Trump + PTSD = ???????

  4. Biden Saved: Joe Biden, in the midst of a political crisis, is about to have a week where stories about his mental infirmity will be competing for space with stories about the Republican National Convention and stories with the latest revelations about the assassination attempt. By this time next week, "Biden must go" stories could be very old news. And if Biden makes it through to that point, his candidacy is likely safe.

  5. Democratic Talking Points, Scenario A: For now, the Democrats will have to forego criticism of Trump, at risk of being accused of encouraging further violence. Maybe they will never be able to return to that theme, depriving Joe Biden of his main (or most effective) campaign theme, and cementing his defeat.

  6. Democratic Talking Points, Scenario B: For now, the Democrats will have to forego criticism of Trump, at risk of being accused of encouraging further violence. Maybe they will never be able to return to that theme, depriving Joe Biden of his main (or most effective) campaign theme, and forcing a pivot to something more uplifting/hopeful. And then, maybe it turns out... that's what voters have been waiting to hear, and Biden surges in the polls.

  7. Gun Control: For every single president or former president who has been killed or wounded in an assassination attempt, the weapon used was a gun. Maybe this will be the incident that re-starts a national, bipartisan dialogue on gun control, just as the Reagan assassination attempt did. Or is this not the time to discuss gun control, with thoughts and prayers being the only appropriate response? We always get confused on what the rules are when a Republican politician gets shot versus what the rules are when a bunch of schoolchildren get shot.

  8. No Effect: Every time something has happened during this campaign that is CERTAIN to change the trajectory of the race, that thing... doesn't actually change the trajectory. We have no doubt there will be some amount of sympathy for Trump... this week. But his injuries were mild, and there's going to be a lot of stuff that happens between now and Election Day. This too, may pass.

In case it is of interest, Trump's odds of winning the race improved dramatically after the assassination attempt, according to the betting markets. For our part, if we were laying a wager, we would bet on possibility #8.

Reader Responses

We had to put aside the letters we'd chosen for today, but we aren't completely suspending the mailbag. We already got a bunch of messages about the shooting, and thought we'd share a few of those:

The Bottom Line

We managed to write a great deal about this story, and yet the crystal ball is very murky. It does not help that the details are still in flux, and that the shooter's motives are currently unknown (and may well remain so). Depending on what is learned about him, if anything ever is, it could change the narrative entirely.

There are only two things that we are certain of. First, the security perimeter around the RNC this week (and probably around the DNC next month) is going to be enormous, and aggressively enforced. Protesters aren't going to be able to get within a country mile of the actual convention halls.

Second, there are going to be some very tough questions for the Secret Service. Trump's security detail was actually beefed up earlier this week, and yet a hostile gunman managed to get within a few hundred feet of him. That's a massive failure.

Beyond that, while there are few outcomes here that would surprise us, we are currently pretty solid behind "this won't move the needle, long-term, in the presidential race." (Z)


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