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DNC, Day Three: A Tear and a Smile

You might not know this, but the Democratic National Convention is underway right now. Yesterday was the third day; you can watch it here, if you wish:



And here are our thoughts on the 10 most notable storylines of the day:

  1. Roll Call Music: We promised yesterday to run down the songs played during the Democrats' roll call on Tuesday, and now we deliver:

    State Song Artist Reason Chosen
    Alabama Sweet Home Alabama Lynyrd Skynyrd Lynyrd Skynyrd is from Alabama; the song is about Alabama.
    Alaska Feel It Still Portugal. The Man The band is from Wasilla, AK, dontcha know.
    American Samoa Edge of Glory Lady Gaga American Samoa is the southernmost location (a.k.a. the southern edge) of the U.S.
    Arizona Edge of Seventeen Stevie Nicks Nicks is from Phoenix.
    Arkansas Don't Stop Fleetwood Mac This was the campaign theme song of Arkansan Bill Clinton.
    California The Next Episode Dr. Dre ft. Snoop Dogg Dre and Snoop are from Compton, CA, and Long Beach, CA, respectively.
    California California Love 2Pac and Dr. Dre Dre is from Compton; the song is about California.
    California Alright Kendrick Lamar Lamar is from Compton.
    California Not Like Us Kendrick Lamar Ibid.
    Colorado September Earth, Wind & Fire Several members of the band are from Denver.
    Connecticut Signed, Sealed, Delivered Stevie Wonder Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; it was one of Barack Obama's campaign theme songs.
    Democrats Abroad Love Train The O'Jays Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    Washington D.C. Let me Clear my Throat DJ Kool Kool was born in D.C.
    Delaware Higher Love Whitney Houston and Kygo Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    Florida Won't Back Down Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers Petty was born in Gainesville; it was one of Hillary Clinton's campaign theme songs.
    Georgia Turn Down for What DJ Snake and Lil Jon Jon was born in Atlanta.
    Guam Espresso Sabrina Carpenter Unclear, though it was a hit song, and Guam does produce a lot of coffee.
    Hawaii 24K Magic Bruno Mars Mars was born in Honolulu.
    Idaho Private Idaho The B-52s The song is about Idaho (the B-52s are from Atlanta).
    Illinois Sirius Alan Parsons Project This was the longtime walk-on music for the Chicago Bulls, who play in the arena where the DNC is being held.
    Indiana Don't Stop til You Get Enough Michael Jackson Jackson was born in Gary, IN.
    Iowa Celebration Kool & the Gang Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; the most famous band from Iowa, Slipknot, was presumably not a great fit.
    Kansas Carry on Wayward Son Kansas Kansas is, of course, from Kansas (specifically, Topeka).
    Kentucky First Class Jack Harlow Harlow was born in Louisville.
    Louisiana All I Do Is Win DJ Khaled Khaled was born in New Orleans.
    Maine Shut Up and Dance WALK THE MOON Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.
    Maryland Respect Aretha Franklin Thematically appropriate to the task at hand. Really, they should probably have gone with a song from Marylander Billie Holiday.
    Massachusetts I'm Shipping Up to Boston Dropkick Murphys Dropkick Murphys are the most Boston band ever, even more so than Boston.
    Michigan Lose Yourself Eminem Eminem was born in Detroit. So was Kid Rock, by the way, but there was no chance he was going to be picked.
    Minnesota Kiss and 1999 Prince Prince was born in Minneapolis. This means they took a pass on Bob Dylan, though.
    Mississippi Twistin' the Night Away Sam Cooke Cook was born in Clarksdale, MS.
    Missouri Good Luck, Babe Chappell Roan Roan was born in Willard, MO.
    Montana American Woman Lenny Kravitz Thematically appropriate to the task at hand; the most famous musician from Montana, Hoyt Axton, is probably a bit too old.
    Nebraska Firework Katy Perry Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.
    Nevada Mr. Brightside The Killers The band is from Las Vegas.
    New Hampshire Don't Stop Believin' Journey Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    New Jersey Born in the U.S.A. Bruce Springsteen Springsteen, born in Long Branch, NJ, is the most New Jersey musician ever, even more so than Frank Sinatra.
    New Mexico Confident Demi Lovato Lovato is from Albuquerque.
    New York Empire State of Mind Jay-Z and Alicia Keys Both artists were born in New York City.
    North Carolina Raise Up Petey Pablo Pablo was born in Greenville, NC.
    North Dakota Girl on Fire Alicia Keys Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    Northern Mariana Islands Ain't No Mountain High Enough Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    Ohio Green Light John Legend ft. André 3000 Legend was born in Springfield, OH.
    Oklahoma Ain't Goin Down (Til The Sun Comes Up) Garth Brooks Brooks was born in Tulsa.
    Oregon Float On Modest Mouse Though formed in Washington, the band is now based in Portland.
    Pennsylvania Motownphilly Boyz II Men The band is from Philadelphia.
    Pennsylvania Black & Yellow Wiz Khalifa Khalifa was born in Pittsburgh and is a well-known Steelers fan.
    Puerto Rico Despacito Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee Both artists were born in San Juan, PR.
    Rhode Island Shake it Off Taylor Swift Swift lives in Rhode Island, among other places, and is very popular, as you might have heard.
    South Carolina Get On Up James Brown Brown was born in Barnswell, SC.
    South Dakota What I Like About You The Romantics Thematically appropriate to the task at hand.
    Tennessee 9 to 5 Dolly Parton Parton was born in Pittman Center, TN.
    Texas TEXAS HOLD 'EM Beyoncé The song is about Texas, sort of.
    Utah Animal Neon Trees The band was formed in Provo, UT.
    Vermont Stick Season Noah Kahan Kahan is from Strafford, VT.
    U.S. Virgin Islands VI to the Bone Mic Love Love was born in the Virgin Islands; the song is about the Virgin Islands.
    Virginia The Way I Are Timbaland ft. Keri Hilson and D.O.E. Timbaland was born in Norfolk, VA.
    Washington Can't Hold Us Macklemore and Ryan Lewis The artists were born in Kent, WA, and Spokane, WA, respectively.
    West Virginia Take Me Home (Country Roads) John Denver It's the official state song of West Virginia.
    Wisconsin Jump Around House of Pain The song is played at University of Wisconsin football games.
    Wyoming I Gotta Feeling Black Eyed Peas Thematically appropriate to the task at hand... we guess.

    There you have it. We assume there was some amount of central planning to make sure that things kept rockin' for the entire hour (or so), and that many different sorts of music and musicians were represented. In any event, it was very effective, and is another thing we expect will be repeated at future conventions.

  2. Trump on the Obamas: Donald Trump has now seen the Obamas' speeches from Day Two; he shared his response with the crowd at his first outdoor rally since the assassination attempt. "Did you see Barack Hussein Obama last night taking little shots? He was taking shots at your president and so was Michelle," Trump said. He also wondered if this gives him license to also "get personal." Ok, then.

  3. Stirring the Pot, v2.0: The Trump campaign and the right-wing media continue to search for ways to try to generate some negativity about the Democrats. To explain our thoughts on the first of the two big lines of attack that emerged yesterday, let us tell a brief story. When (Z)'s father died, he was intestate. (Z) was placed in charge of his estate by a judge, that made (Z) the administrator of the estate. This is the exact same thing as an executor, except that an executor is named in a will, and an administrator is named by a judge.

    Naturally, (Z) had to deal with a lot of banks and other such entities, usually working with departments with names like "Decedent Beneficiaries Team." And you wouldn't believe it, but most of them had no idea what an administrator is. Surely, (Z)'s father can't be the first person in human history to die intestate, right? And yet, the people whose job it is to deal with these sorts of things EVERY DAY acted as if (Z) was speaking Martian when he said he was administrator of the estate, and said they could only deal with the executor. So, (Z) got in the habit of identifying himself as the executor, which wasn't actually correct, but was close enough, and saved time.

    And now, the latest Tim Walz "scandal," which J.D. Vance is trying to squeeze for all it's worth. Everyone knows that Walz' kids were born via IVF. Except, as it turns out, they weren't. They were born via intrauterine insemination (IUI). This is a less invasive form of treatment that is generally a stepping stone to IVF. That is to say, if IUI works, great. If not, then IVF is up next.

    We don't mean to be apologists for anyone, but this feels a lot like the executor/administrator thing. Everyone knows what IVF is, and everyone knows what an executor is. Meanwhile, many fewer people know what IUI us, and many fewer people know what an estate administrator is. If Walz used the exact correct terminology, then he would have to give mini-lecture after mini-lecture about IUI, and how it differs from IVF.

    Now, there is a way in which the two treatments are substantively different. IVF generally results in extra embryos, while IUI does not. So, the objections that the anti-IVF people have may not apply to IUI. On the other hand, there's an important way they are not substantively different. IVF and IUI are done by the same medical professionals, and if one goes the way of the dodo, the other probably will as well. So, is Walz really guilty here of a serious falsehood? We don't think so, but readers can reach their own conclusions.

    Meanwhile, the other line of attack launched yesterday was against... Doug Emhoff's daughter (and thus, Kamala Harris' stepdaughter). The complaint is kind of... well, weird, and a bit hard to parse. However, this tweet is representative:

    It shows Ella Emhoff in a short-sleeved shirt, which means you can see her tattoos. And it says: 'Ella Emhoff being a part of the first family has the potential to radicalize American parents. I'm for women living the lives they want, but this is pretty much the nightmare scenario for most people with a daughter.'

    Note a couple of things. First, Ella Emhoff is gainfully employed (as a model and fashion designer), is in a stable romantic relationship (and with a man, so it's not that), and is a college graduate. Second, you can go find other tweets from right wingers, and they do not make any clearer what the issue is.

    As far as we can tell, the "nightmare" is that she wore a sleeveless shirt to the DNC, with the result that you can see her tattoos. Whatever it is, right-wing social media types were going nuts about it. Our guess is that 99.99% of parents, even if they don't like tattoos, would be delighted if their child, at age 25, was independent, educated, and in a line of work that makes them happy. Very odd.

  4. The FCIC: Those readers who don't like sports analogies will have to forgive us, because we're going to be making use of two baseball analogies in this item. Here comes the first one. When baseball players retire, they must wait for 5 years, and then they have up to 10 years to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. If a player fails to get 5% of the vote in any of those 19 years, or if they reach the end of the 10 years and have never received enough votes to be elected (75%), then they can't be inducted through this mechanism.

    However, there is still a bit of hope. To make sure nobody slips through the cracks, the Hall of Fame convenes "veterans'" committees of various sorts (the specific names of the committees are constantly changing). The committees meet and consider the Hall of Fame cases of, usually, a dozen players who have been retired for at least 15 years. These committees don't go to the trouble of meeting only to do nothing. So, they almost always elect at least one player, even if that player is not really worthy. If you look for a list of the least worthy players in the Hall of Fame (there are thousands of such lists on the Internet), pretty much all of them were chosen by one of the veterans' committees.

    What does this have to do with the Convention? Well, yesterday we saw an item about something we had already been thinking; the headline is "The fact-checking industrial complex." As with the RNC, the various outlets that do fact-checking (CNN, The Washington Post, Politifact, etc.) have deployed an army of fact-checkers to report on the DNC.

    There is no doubt that the people who appear on stage during a political convention should be held to account, and kept honest. However, it is also the case that some people (and some political parties) are far more dishonest than others. Further, no fact-checker is going to file, as their story, "Sorry, it all seemed pretty good to me." Nor are they going to stop at one or two items. No, like those Hall of fame veterans' committees, they are going to find 2,000 words' worth of fact-checking to justify their time and effort, even if they have to pick some real nits.

    The net result, and this is the point made by the linked article, is that we end up with a backdoor form of bothsidesism, where the whopping lies of the Republicans and the little white lies of the Democrats are effectively presented as equivalent. This lets the various outlets perform "fairness," but it also misrepresents the facts on the ground. There is no way that "Venezuela is sending all of its violent criminals to the U.S." is in the same ballpark as "My wife and I used IVF."

    We are not sure what the fix is here. Maybe all outlets should adopt a rating system, like the one The Washington Post has, where falsehoods are given relative ratings. "The Democrats told six 'one Pinocchio' lies and one 'three Pinocchios' lie, while the Republicans told three 'three Pinocchios' lies and four 'five Pinocchios' lies" would at least create SOME distinction between the two.

  5. Diversity, v3.0: The emphasis on diversity continued, of course, on Day Three. The great majority of the speakers and performers were non-white. There were a bunch more Republicans (again, diversity of thought) talking about why they just can't support Donald Trump anymore. The invocation was handled by a Hindu (Sri Rakesh Bhatt) and a bishop from The House of the Lord Churches (Leah D. Daughtry), the benediction was done by a Christian pastor (William Emmanuel Hall) and a fellow who follows elements of both Hinduism and Sikhism (Tahil Sharma). If the Democrats don't invite a priest of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster to appear tonight, they are missing out on a real opportunity. We would also accept a Jedi knight.

    There are a couple of distinctive things to note about Day Three on the diversity front. First, we expected that at least one day would have a heavy dose of LGBTQ equality, and Day Three was it. There were a number of LGBTQ speakers, and several videos that touched on the subject, including a brief interview with two lesbians who were the first gay people to become legally married in California. Also, Michigan AG Dana Nessel (D), who is a lesbian, delivered an address in which she held up her left hand and advised Republicans that they can "pry this wedding band from my cold, dead, gay hand."

    Second, we've had some e-mails asking why the DNC's diversity seems to include so few Asians. There are two answers to that question. The less harsh one is that there are fewer prominent Asian politicians to choose from, as compared to Latinos and, especially, Black officeholders. There are only two Asian-American senators, and one of those (Tammy Duckworth, D-IL) did speak. There are only 17 Asian-American members of Congress. There are no sitting Asian-American governors.

    The more harsh answer is that, in the end, Asian-American voters aren't as important to the Democrats' hopes as Latino and Black voters are. People of Asian descent make up about 6% of the population, as compared to 19% for Latinos and 12% for Black Americans. Further, that 6% tends to be concentrated in states like Hawaii, California, New York and Washington, which are all in the bag for the Democrats.

    That said, it appears that the folks running the DNC are sensitive to this concern, and tried to do something about it on Day Three. Non-politician Asian-Americans who were on the bill last night included Bhatt and Sharma, activist Mini Timmaraju and actress Mindy Kaling. Politician Asian-Americans included Cincinnati mayor Aftab Pureval (D), Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) and Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ).

  6. Tears: Yesterday, we wondered why the Democrats seem to have the lion's share of high-quality speakers. We will share some ideas from readers tomorrow; for now, let us remind everyone that one of our theories is that the Democrats (in contrast to many Republicans) really believe what they are saying, and it shows. There was abundant evidence of the first part of that last night, as there were a number of occasions where a major participant in the convention was brought to tears. We'll point out the three most notable.

    First, Day Three Chair Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) took the stage at the start of the proceedings, and was very emotional as he told the conventioneers that his longtime colleague, Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) passed away yesterday morning. Pascarell had been ill for months; his death brought an end to a long and successful career. Second, one of two or three speeches in the running for "speech of the night" (along with Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg) was the barnburner delivered by Oprah Winfrey. The TV mogul got misty-eyed when she talked about Civil Rights activist Tessie Prevost Williams, and then again when she noted that Kamala Harris, the daughter of two immigrants, could be elected president. Third, during Tim Walz' speech, he paused to recognize his family, and his two kids, especially his son, burst into tears. Pictures of Gus Walz are already all over social media, courtesy of folks who found that moment touching.

  7. Our Celebrities Are Better than Your Celebrities, v2.0: The star power that the Democrats are able to command remains very impressive. We already mentioned Oprah Winfrey and Mindy Kaling. Others who made an appearance last night include Maren Morris, Stevie Wonder (who was in fine form for a man in his mid-seventies), Kenan Thompson and John Legend and Shiela E. Morris, who is well known for her pro-LGBTQ activism, performed a song. Wonder gave a speech and also performed a song. Thompson brought out the giant Project 2025 book that many DNC speakers are using as a prop (starting with State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, D-MI, on Monday) and did a sketch where he talked with people who would be affected by the implementation of Project 2025. Legend and E did a cover of Prince's "Let's Go Crazy."

    We don't know if people's votes are being directly influenced by the presence of these famous people (although with Oprah, maybe...). However, we do know that the chance to see these folks (or just to be surprised) is going to get some people to tune in (or to watch on social media). And once you have the eyeballs, then you can share some thoughts about the Democratic Party, its ideas and its candidates. The Day Two ratings are in, incidentally; 20.8 million people tuned in. That's 2 days in a row where the blue team outdrew the equivalent day for the red team by about 2 million people.

  8. The 800-Pound Gorilla(s): The Democrats know what issues are, according to polls, liabilities for them. And they've decided not to run away from them. So, last night, Jon Polin and Rachel Goldberg, whose son Hersh is among the hostages being held by Hamas, took the stage. They insisted that the Biden administration is "working tirelessly" to try to bring peace to Gaza, but that it's an incredibly difficult and complicated situation, and that what is happening is tragic for everyone involved. Goldberg was another who burst into tears, incidentally; in her case, while the crowd chanted "Bring them home! Bring them home!"

    Later in the proceedings, there was an extended segment on border security that included a video as well as remarks on the subject from Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sheriff Javier Salazar of Bexar County, TX and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA). They all made the point once, or twice, or maybe 20 times that the Senate had hammered a bipartisan border security bill out (recall, Murphy was the lead negotiator for the Democrats) but that Donald Trump torpedoed it. Their conclusion was that Trump doesn't really care about border security, he's just using the issue to get elected.

    We don't know if anyone will find these segments to be persuasive. In particular, the pro-Gaza protestors are not terribly likely to be satisfied by what Polin and Goldberg had to say. That said, in good news for the Democrats, the number of protesters outside the United Center has been far smaller than expected, and there has only been one act of (minor) violence (a fence was torn down). Looks like it won't be a repeat of Chicago 1968.

  9. He's Still Got It: Time for baseball analogy #2. In the 1970s, Nolan Ryan brought the heat like no other pitcher in the major leagues. He could top 100 mph with his pitches at a time when that was essentially unheard of. In fact, for decades, he was the Guinness Book of World Records record-holder for "fastest pitch ever thrown," for a pitch thrown on August 22, 1974.

    Ryan pitched until he was 46, retiring in 1993. Was the Nolan Ryan of the 1990s capable of doing what the Nolan Ryan of the 1970s could do? No, he was not. But it turns out that even a diminished Nolan Ryan was still better than 98% of the pitchers in the league.

    We say that as entreé to our comments on the speech from Bill Clinton. At 78 years of age, he no longer has his fastest fastball. In particular, his voice is much weaker than it once was. But even at 95% or 90% capacity, he's still got a whole bunch of that Clinton magic. As with Barack Obama on Tuesday, Clinton started by complimenting his wife's speech. There may just be some subtext running through the DNC about which party is truly the party of family values.

    After the niceties, Clinton rolled up his sleeves (metaphorically, not literally) and got to work. He had a fair bit of substantive material to get to; the most notable bit of substance was when he talked about job creation under Democratic and Republican presidents since the end of the Cold War. He told the crowd that he could not believe this statistic was true, but that he'd triple-checked it. And then he dropped it on the crowd: Since the U.S.S.R. fell, the U.S. has created 51 million new jobs. And the "scoreboard," as he put it, is... Democrats 50 million, Republicans 1 million. This revelation brought the crowd to their feet.

    It is very hard to believe that stat is correct, but it's also the case that Clinton would never have set it up that way if it was inaccurate, since he knew he'd be fact-checked six ways to Sunday. And indeed, in an illustration of what we talked about above, the fact-checkers had to grudgingly concede that Clinton had the right of it. CNN, for example, wrote that the "claim is true" BUT that it depends on exactly when you consider each president's term to have started, and that depending on the dates you use, it might actually be Democrats 50 million, Republicans 2 million. Well, that certainly undermines his point, right? CNN also observed that the claim depends on context, and that you have to remember that during the terms of the various Democratic presidents, the economy was doing really well. Again, certainly undermines his point, right?

    Clinton also came prepared with some zingers. He took a few shots at Donald Trump, of course; the best of those was: "Two days ago, I turned 78. The oldest man in my family who is still living. And the only personal vanity I want to assert is that I'm still younger than Donald Trump." Fortunately for Clinton, that will always be true. Other bits of humor were directed inward, like when the former president, referring to Harris' college-years job at McDonald's, said: "I will be so happy when [Kamala Harris] actually enters the White House as president because she will break my record as the president who spent the most time at McDonald's." It brought to mind one of the great SNL sketches of the 1990s.

    Clinton reportedly re-wrote his speech after watching the first day of the convention. And yes, the person running the teleprompter loaded the correct version of the speech. Nonetheless, Clinton clearly went off-script several times, and started freestyling. Again, he's still got it.

    Among other politicians who spoke, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-VA) isn't a great public speaker, but her address was very capable. And the rising superstar of the night was Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. It's no secret he knows his way around a microphone, but if anyone forgot, he reminded them last night that he is a heck of a stage presence. His problem is finding rungs on the ladder that he can climb to in anticipation of a presidential bid in 2028 or 2032 or 2036.

  10. Walz and Bridges: Tim Walz has the same job as his Republican counterpart, and that is to connect with the everyman and everywoman voters. And it is abundantly clear to us that Walz is far better at this than J.D. Vance is. First, Walz never sold out his people the way Vance did. Second, Walz has not spent the last 10-15 years living a life of wealth and privilege (he doesn't even have a 401k). Third, Walz comes off as more genuine than Vance does. Fourth, Walz is just more likable.

    All of these things were on display before and during Walz' speech. There was a video about his background and his career; it heavily featured a bunch of his former students, who clearly love him dearly. They also brought out several of Walz' former football players to serve as his escort, of sorts, as he walked on stage. And after all the stagecraft, it was time for the Governor to do his thing. It just cannot be easy to go up there, following all of these people—Oprah, the Clintons, the Obamas, Joe Biden, etc.—who have crushed it over the last several nights. But he delivered. His speech, like so many of the others, was substantive, charming, funny, touching, etc. There are some politicians that are just inherently likable. Ronald Reagan was one, Bill Clinton is another, Colin Powell was a third. Walz is in that group, and that's a very good thing for a politician.

    We will admit that we sometimes have trouble parsing Walz' Midwestern accent. At one point, he decreed: "There'll be time to sleep when you're dead." We initially heard it as "There'll be time to sleep with your dad," and were shocked that he would make such an off-color remark at the expense of Ivanka Trump. But it's OK, because he didn't actually say that. We backed the video up and checked.

That's three days of conventioneering, and they've all been successful. Can the blue team go 4-for-4? Given that the star attraction takes her turn tonight, you have to like their chances. (Z)

DNC Diary: Day Three

It's not easy to spend all day being a delegate and THEN to sit down and type up some thoughts. Still, for the fourth day in a row, reader A.S. in Fairfax, VA answered the bell:

To open Day Three, our neighboring senators and governor from Maryland paid us a visit and we got a preview of Governor Wes Moore's (D-MD) convention speech. Many of us in northern Virginia were affected in some way by the collapse of the Key Bridge back in March, so Governor Moore's speech definitely hit home with many in our delegation.

We had another afternoon event sponsored by Louise Lucas, our beloved President pro tem of the Virginia Senate. I really appreciate how these events allow us to get to know other delegates and elected officials from other parts of the state and build on our current relationships with other party members.

There was an effort among delegates to coordinate everyone wearing pink for night three, but I'm not sure whether it came across on the broadcast since only about a quarter of the delegates appeared to have pink on.

Night three felt like a hump day for delegates. Many of us have not slept more than 4-5 hours per night since the party started on Sunday, the arena only has the traditional concessions, so dinner options are limited, and we still have two big nights to go. So, some debated grabbing a nap and leaving for the United Center late or even allowing an alternate delegate to be seated for the night. Those that stuck with it experienced an emotional roller coaster ranging from tears of grief and sympathy for Hersh Goldberg-Polin and his courageous parents, laughter with Kenan Thompson's presentation of Project 2025, complete shock at Oprah's appearance, and tears of JOY seeing Governor Walz and his beautiful family sharing their love and emotion with all of us.

While watching Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA), a few of us started talking about the future of the party and how crazy it is that we might have seen the next 30 years of Democratic presidential nominees, vice presidential nominees, and cabinet secretaries in just three nights. We all left the arena buzzing tonight, knowing that our current nominee is just a wake-up away.

Our hotel bar was buzzing all night and it was a great opportunity to unwind and get to know our fellow delegates and other guests and party members better, though many of us will pay for it tomorrow when we wake up in just 4 hours. We'll sleep when we're dead.

Thanks, yet again, A.S.! (Z)

The Crosstabs Explain Why Harris is Surging

A deep dive into the crosstabs of the final polls of Joe Biden vs. Trump, as compared to the current Harris vs. Trump polls, explains much of Kamala Harris' surge. Here it is in one chart: Crosstabs of why Harris is surging, she's up with every demo examined, to be described in the next sentence

As you can see, Harris' has gained with all eight demographics show in the chart. Her biggest gains are with young voters (+17), Black voters (+12), and independent voters (+9). She gained with both college and noncollege voters. She is still under water with noncollege voters, but by less than Biden was.

What is perhaps not obvious, because it is so unexpected, is that Harris has both fired up her base and also won over independents. Democrats can normally choose which to go after, but policy issues that the base likes turn off independents and vice-versa. She has apparently managed to pull this off. It is really quite impressive. Some of the magic may simply be due to her age. Voters who liked the Democrats' policies but thought Biden was too old and feeble were suddenly pacified when they got the same policies but in a 22-year younger package. That could be it. It is also worth noting that the most important plank in Harris' platform has broad appeal across the spectrum. That, of course, would be "I'm not Donald Trump." (V)

Money Talks, but How Loud?

Campaigns raise vast amounts of money. This year, both major-party candidates will probably pass $1 billion each by the end. But does all that spending buy a lot of votes? Probably not. The overwhelming majority of voters just look at the little (D) or (R) and make a decision based on that. Seeing some TV ad 50 times doesn't make much difference. But there are a small number of voters who are either genuinely on the fence, or simply not paying any attention to politics, and all that money is really aimed at them.

Does money bring victory? It is hard to say, really. One study of congressional races done in 2018 by FiveThirtyEight shows that the candidate who spend the most usually won:

Over time, the higher-spending House candidate has won between 90% and 95% of the time; for the Senate it is between 70% and 85% of the time

So it is clear, right? Actually, no. Don't fall into the trap of confusing correlation with causation. Incumbents generally attract more money because they are better known than their challengers. And they generally win because they are incumbents. That they also raised more money is actually peripheral. In all races, leading in the polls tends to pull in more money because people like to bet on a winner, and then more money only helps the leader stay ahead. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy, in a way. A district or state's PVI matters a lot. Democratic donors don't tend to dump money in Wyoming and Republican donors don't shower candidates in Hawaii with money. They know it is pointless. As a result, Republicans in Wyoming have more money than Democrats in Wyoming and they win, but it is not due to the money. Ditto Democrats having more money than Republicans in Hawaii.

Does advertising make a difference? A little. There was one actual controlled experiment done. It was in 2006, during Rick Perry's reelection campaign for governor of Texas. Researchers convinced Perry to advertise heavily in randomly selected markets. Before the ads started, they polled the markets. After the ads ran, they polled again. A week after the ads stopped, they polled again. What they learned is that the day the ads stopped, there was a noticeable bump for Perry, but a week later, it was gone and it was as if no ads had run at all. Also, it is believed that while ads may matter for a House or Senate candidate who is totally unknown, for presidential candidates ads matter less because the voters already know who they are and aren't swayed easily by ads. Only for that tiny sliver of the population that is undecided or not paying attention might the ads matter.

This doesn't mean that money is totally unimportant, just that ads are probably overrated. Campaigns don't spend all their money on ads. They open offices to hand out yard signs and bumper stickers and sell merch. They do phone banking. They pay people to go door to door to hand out campaign literature. They pay people to register voters. The get-out-the-vote campaigns costs money. These things do have an impact. So even in a presidential race, money does matter.

That said, let's get to the actual news here. Kamala Harris has now raised $500 million in the month since her campaign began on July 21. She expects that to grow to $600 million by the end of August, since the money keeps pouring in. This includes both the campaign and its allied PACs, and the reporting doesn't indicate whether this amount is simply from small donors or includes the $150 million large donors pledged to her. It definitely does not include the $90 million she inherited from the Biden campaign.

Still, it is certainly the case that a big chunk of the $500 million consists of donations to the campaign. In the past, campaign money was more valuable than super PAC money because candidates got lower television advertising rates than others. That is not so important for Harris, though, because the bulk of her money is not going to television ads. A bunch of her spending is going to digital ads. Google and Facebook aren't required by law to give candidates the best deal. Also, some of her spending will be on get-out-the-vote drives, and people hired to run them don't really care where the money to pay them came from. Still, $500 million or $600 million or $750 million or $840 million or whatever it is, is a lot of money. You could buy 1/80th of a failing social media platform with that kind of coin.

The other side is not standing still. Reclusive Republican MAGAdonor Timothy Mellon, heir to the Mellon banking fortune, keeps tossing money into Donald Trump's begging bowl. It is now being reported that in July, he tossed in another $50 million, bringing his total for this cycle to $115 million. He must like Trump a whole bunch. Or maybe he is hoping for a big tax cut. He probably knows that the one Trump signed in 2017 will be expiring during the term of the next president and Mellon might just prefer Trump to be sitting at the Resolute Desk when the next tax bill lands there. In any event, he is by far the biggest Republican donor of this cycle, putting Miriam Adelson to shame. Sheldon is probably rolling over in his grave.

Now onto a key Senate race. The Ohio Republican Senate candidate, Mercedes-Benz car dealer Bernie Moreno, has donated $25 million to... Bernie Moreno. He is going to spend it on television, radio, and other ads in his race to unseat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). He will need some help because the most recent half dozen polls have shown Brown ahead 3-5 points. Up until now, Moreno has barely been on the air. Maybe it is a good strategy to save your pennies until September, when most voters start to pay attention. On the other hand, if you are a complete unknown, like Moreno, running against a popular and very well known three-term senator going for a fourth term, letting him define you rather than you defining you, might not be the best strategy. In any event, Moreno is starting to pour his own money into the race. (V)

"When They Go Low, We Go with the Flow"

In 2016, Michelle Obama famously said: "When they go low, we go high." Boy, is that ever so 2016. As far as Democrats are concerned, that's dead as the dodo. They are now trying to bury Donald Trump and especially Sen. J.D. Vance under a mountain of jokes, snark, and memes. They never did this before. It's weird.

Speaking of "weird," that seems to pop up all the time now, along with its big brother, "creepy." Couches seem to be everywhere, but no sofas or davenports. Maybe loveseats could make it big, though. Harris' campaign has become less Oval Office and more online provocateur. Trump does not know how to handle this, since it is so different from Joe Biden's campaign. It clearly is getting under his skin, which tends to make him say things that might cause Chris LaCivita to tear his hair out—if he had any.

Before Trump's recent news conference in New Jersey, the Harris campaign issued an "advisory" warning: "Donald Trump To Ramble Incoherently and Spread Dangerous Lies in Public, but at Different Home." Saying this would have been beneath Joe Biden. Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said: "We went from 'when they go low, we go high,' to 'when they go low, we go with the flow.'" James Carville said: "After eight years of Trump, there's no discussion among anybody about going high."

At a fundraiser last week, Tim Walz said: "I feel like one of my roles in this now is to be the anti-Tommy Tuberville, to show that football coaches are not the dumbest people." At another event, he referred to Trump and Vance as "creepy and weird as hell." When Trump spoke with Elon Musk, the Harris campaign sent out an e-mail saying: "The two worst people you know are live this evening." Harris' team believes that being snarky helps them with people who feel disconnected from the political ecosystem.

Another whole field where Harris is on offense is Trump's age. When Biden was on the ticket, he couldn't very well call Trump a doddering old fool. Harris has no inhibitions about directing that attack at Trump. She calls him a "relic of the past" among other things. However, she has to be careful not to alienate older voters. On the other hand, when he gives an incoherent, meandering, 90-minute speech, she has plenty of his own material to work with.

But Harris is not only negative. Another major theme is whether the country will go forward or go backward. While many of Trump's older supporters want to go back to a time when women were in the kitchen, Black people were out in the cotton fields, and LGBTQ people were in the closet. Harris supporters tend not to yearn for those days. (V)

Abortion Initiative Will Be on the Montana Ballot

Montana is now the ninth state with an abortion initiative on the November ballot. It is official, now that Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen (R) has certified that more than the required 60,300 signatures needed have been gathered. Organizers submitted 117,000 signatures, just to be sure. Still, we are almost surprised Jacobsen certified it because she is as partisan as they come and has done her level best to make voting difficult in Montana (e.g. making sure student ID cards aren't valid ID for voting and not allowing anyone to collect absentee ballots from tribal members who might be 50 miles from the nearest mailbox and mailing them all at once). The initiative would become part of the Montana Constitution and bars the state government from interfering with an abortion before the point of fetal viability.

Montana is important because there is a key Senate race there between Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and aerial firefighter Tim Sheehy. The initiative is likely to draw young people and women to the polls who might not otherwise vote because they know Montana will go for Trump. But now they have a reason to vote and that is very likely to help Tester.

The other eight states are Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, South Dakota, Missouri, Florida, Maryland and New York. In some of those, like Colorado and New York, abortion is already legal, so the initiative won't change things very much (the initiatives are meant as insurance against a future Republican administration). But in some states (in addition to Montana) it could matter a lot. Topping the list is Arizona. It is rapidly becoming a purple state. The governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats. Both senators were elected as Democrats.

In polling, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is running almost 10 points ahead of Kari Lake (R) and his coattails may pull in the state for Kamala Harris. Now with an abortion initiative in the ballot, it is possible that not only will Harris get the 11 electoral votes, but the Democrats could flip both chambers of the state legislature and get the trifecta. At that point, State Democrats could start passing all kinds of laws that would make Barry Goldwater roll over in his grave (although it should be noted that, being a libertarian at heart, he was pro-choice). With abortion on the ballot, our intuitive feeling is that Arizona is now the most likely of the seven swing states to go blue. Of course, Harris should not get cocky and ignore it, but because Nevada still swings very much, any trip to Nevada should also include one or more stops in Arizona as well. A drive from Las Vegas through Henderson, NV, Flagstaff, AZ, Sedona, AZ, Prescott, AZ, and then on to Phoenix takes about 6 hours, plus time for short rallies at each stop. It's doable in one long day.

Three other states where to abortion initiative are important are Nevada, Maryland, and Florida. Like Arizona,k Nevada is a swing state with a key U.S. Senate election, and the initiative could help the Democrats carry the state. In Maryland, there is a Senate race between Angela Alsobrooks (D) and former governor Larry Hogan (R). Democratic turnout there could go up and ensure that Alsobrooks beats the popular Hogan. In Florida, the initiative could help Harris win the state and also help Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) unseat Sen. Rick Scott (R). So abortion could play an important role in at least five states. When Donald Trump adopted the policy of "leave abortion to the states," he didn't realize it could cost him the presidency, which could result in his going to prison.

And on Monday, he made a bad situation even worse. He told CBS News that if elected, he would not use the 150-year-old Comstock Act to ban mailing mifepristone. Anti-abortionists went nuts on this. They saw that as their backstop if a nationwide ban on abortion couldn't get through Congress. Prominent conservatives called his remark "cowardly," "nonsensical," and "not pro-life." Will this cause some single-issue anti-abortion voters to stay home on Election Day? Maybe a few. And it could certainly cut down on donations and volunteers. (V)

Kennedy May Drop Out to Help Trump

Nicole Shanahan, running mate of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said that Kennedy is considering ending his pointless campaign and then go on to help Donald Trump directly, instead of indirectly, which was the original plan. Shanahan noted that current polling shows Kennedy drawing more votes from Trump than from Kamala Harris. That wasn't the game plan at all. It was supposed to be the other way. Damn right-wing voters are too stupid to realize why Kennedy was in there. The money is running out and donations are drying up, so a decision is needed soon.

Kennedy took a big hit last week when a judge said his petition to get on the ballot in New York was invalid because he lied about his address on it. He actually lives in Los Angeles, but used a fake address in Westchester County. This could cause him to be kicked from the ballot in other states as well. If that happens, his campaign is finished.

If Kennedy were to drop out, it might help Trump a little bit because the antivaxxers who preferred Kennedy to Trump would have no where else to go except back to Trump. Maybe. At this point, Junior is polling at 3%-5%, and it's not clear his remaining supporters have coherent policy goals that could be embraced by Trump in order to win over their support. Kennedy already tried to make a deal with Trump (a cabinet slot in trade for his support) but Trump wasn't interested. If Kennedy drops out, Trump will have gotten rid of a rival without having to give up anything in return. That's a deal he could accept.

Kennedy has said he will make an important announcement in Arizona tomorrow. It is possible that he will drop out and endorse Trump. Since he is currently hurting Trump, it is possible that his withdrawal will boost Trump by a point or two. But again, maybe not. It will also make Kennedy look like an incredible hypocrite for attacking Trump all year and then endorsing him. It will validate the opinion of all the people who said all along that he was merely a stalking horse for Trump from the beginning. Kennedy's family will disown him and call him a disgrace to the Kennedy name and legacy. His wife is reported to be furious at the prospect of Junior endorsing Trump, so it could go either way. If he does anyway, Hollywood divorce lawyers will be beating down her door Saturday.

Incidentally, as long as we are on this general subject, Cornel West was booted off the Michigan ballot yesterday, due to problems with his paperwork. He is only polling at around 0.5% in that state, but most of those votes are probably coming out of Kamala Harris' hide. There is one time in the last 6 cycles where the state was close enough that 0.5% of the vote would have mattered, and that was 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost by 0.23%. So, it's not impossible that the bad news for West becomes meaningful in November. (V)

Scavenger Hunt, Part XI: Pithy Quotes, Re-Redux

Here, once again, are the prompts for our first "annual" scavenger hunt:

  1. The single photograph or image that best encapsulates the Trump presidency. (Click here and here)
  2. Something that would make a terrible Christmas gift for Joe Biden. (Click here)
  3. A book that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would never, ever read. (Click here)
  4. A t-shirt that would be very apropos for Chief Justice John Roberts to wear. (Click here and here)
  5. The wisest, most insightful, or most pithy quote ever to be uttered by a politician or political figure (need not be limited to Americans). (Click here and here)
  6. The worst bumper sticker, button, yard sign or other campaign-related ephemera in U.S. history. (Click here; there's also still time to submit here)
  7. A portrayal of a key figure in U.S. history—image, song, verse, book, etc.—that is even more ridiculous than Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. (Still time to submit here)
  8. This isn't exactly a scavenger hunt type question, but we're going with it anyhow. Finish this joke: "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Hillary Clinton walk into a bar..." (Still time to submit here)

We're running late in getting this posted (again), and it takes less time to put together words than pictures. So another round of pithy quotes today:

Tomorrow, it will definitely be some ridiculous portrayals. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Looks like Kamala Harris and Tim Walz won't need to spend too much time in New England, unless they really, really want to pursue that one EV in ME-02. In the UNH poll, Harris was beating Trump in ME-02 52% to 47%, so she may not need to campaign much there. (Z)

State Kamala Harris Donald Trump Start End Pollster
Maine 55% 38% Aug 15 Aug 19 U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire 52% 47% Aug 15 Aug 19 U. of New Hampshire
Vermont 70% 29% Aug 15 Aug 19 U. of New Hampshire

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.


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