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GOP pickups: GA NV
Trump's Super PAC Will Spend $100 Million Attacking Harris Next Week
Next week is the Democratic National Convention. What could be a better time for a pro-Trump super PAC to spend $100 Million trying to tear Kamala Harris to shreds? Of that money, $77 Million came from billionaire Timothy Mellon. There will be plenty left over after the $100 million ad buy, however, since the group has raised $120 million since the Republican convention. MAGA, Inc. plans to advertise in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
All the ads will be bitter attack ads. They will target Harris on immigration and crime. They will call her an out-of-the mainstream liberal. The ads will be real nasty.
One thing we noticed is that none of the ads are going to talk about all the great things Trump would do as president. Nothing about walls Mexico will pay for, or bringing jobs back from overseas, or putting another 100,000 cops on the beat. Just unbridled negativity. What Trump wants, Trump gets. But the contrast between all the divisive, bitter Republican ads and the upbeat, happy, joyous Democratic National Convention (assuming the pro-Palestinian demonstrators don't ruin everything) will be striking. Nobody will remember the details, but by Labor Day, the takeaway for many people will be: "Democrats are happy and want to help the people, Republicans are angry and bitter and have no actual plans for helping anyone. All they want to do is tear Harris to bits." We are also curious about how sexist and racist the ads will be. The ad makers know enough to stay away from that stuff, but Trump may force them to wallow in it.
The Harris campaign has plenty of money, too, and is going to fight back next week. She plans to spend $90 million in August advertising in the same battleground states as Trump. The $310 million take in the first week of her campaign made this possible. Her ads are not going to be dark, like Trump's. They will highlight her personal history, her career as a prosecutor, her willingness to stand up to powerful interests, and, finally, Trump's dangerous agenda. They are not expected to attack Trump personally, just his plans (e.g., Project 2025). (V)
New Poll: Harris Leads in Five Swing States, Is Tied in One, and Behind in One
When Kamala Harris took the baton from Joe Biden and began running with it, Donald Trump was ahead by an average of 3-5 points across the swing states. Now a new poll conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group, and sponsored by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, can be used to show what has happened since then. This is useful because both the May poll and the new one were done by the same folks using the same methodology and same model of the electorate. It is a true apples to apples comparison, and not apples to pineapples. Here are the results:
| State | Harris | Trump | Undecided | May | August |
| Overall | 48% | 47% | 5% | Trump +3 | Harris +1 |
| Arizona | 48% | 46% | 6% | Trump +1 | Harris +2 |
| Georgia | 48% | 48% | 4% | Trump +3 | TIED |
| Michigan | 49% | 46% | 5% | Trump +2 | Harris +3 |
| Nevada | 45% | 48% | 6% | Trump +9 | Trump +3 |
| North Carolina | 48% | 47% | 6% | Trump +7 | Harris +1 |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 48% | 3% | Trump +3 | Harris +1 |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 46% | 5% | TIED | Harris +3 |
What are some takeaways? First, Harris has picked up ground in every swing state and now has small leads in five of them, trails in one, and is tied in one. Biden was behind in six and tied in one. Harris clearly has momentum. The states where she has gained the least are the Southern states of Arizona and Georgia, where she has picked up only 3 points. Her biggest gain is also in the South, North Carolina, where she has picked up 8 points and gone from not competitive to a statistical tie. She also picked up 6 points in Nevada, although she is still behind there. Those are pretty good numbers so far.
Second, the southern route is as competitive as the northern route. For Biden, it was the northern route or bust. If Harris loses Wisconsin (10 EVs) she can make it up and more by winning Arizona (11 EVs). This gives her more ways to get to 270 than Biden had. She doesn't have to put all her eggs in one basket this way. Also, North Carolina is now in play. With Biden running, it was a Lost Cause. It is probably not a coincidence that the only Democrat to carry it in this century was Barack Obama (in 2008). This was due to two things. First, the state has a large Black population. Second, the Research Triangle Area has many highly educated workers in the tech and financial sectors. These groups are highly Democratic. If Trump loses its 16 EVs, he is going to have to win Georgia (also 16 EVs), otherwise he is probably finished. If Harris wins the blue wall states and any of Arizona, North Carolina, or Georgia, all of which are definitely in play, Trump will be hard pressed to get to 270.
Third, next week is the Democratic National Convention. Harris is still much less well known than Trump. He didn't get a bump at all from his convention. With a week of positive, maybe even joyous, publicity, she is probably going to continue her momentum into September. Then the debate will happen on Sept. 10. Harris is a much better debater than Biden. Prosecutors have to make a case before a jury all the time. She knows how to do that. If Harris' momentum continues until the debate, Trump is probably going to ignore the advice of his team and just lash out against her. He could get racist and sexist, either intentionally or accidentally. That won't help with swing voters. We hope Cook hires the same pollsters again in September so we have a comparison with May and August.
Another poll is also interesting. It is a Monmouth University poll asking about "double haters"—those voters who hate both candidates. When the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 17% of the voters hated both candidates. Now that has dropped to 8%. What does that suggest about the 9% who are no longer double haters? We know they hate Trump and we know they hate Biden. But when given a choice between Harris and Trump, they no longer hate both of them. It does kind of suggest that they don't hate Harris. They may not love her, but at least they don't hate her. That is something.
Still another interesting poll is of Latinos in the seven swing states. Harris leads Trump 56% to 37% among Latinos now, a 19-point lead. In May, Biden had a 5-point lead with Latinos in those states. That is another huge gain. (V)
Democratic Registration Is Up in Pennsylvania and North Carolina
Having a slight plurality of the voters for you is fine and dandy (see above), but it doesn't help if they aren't registered and don't vote. For almost all of this year, in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, net new weekly Republican registrations were outpacing Democratic ones. When Biden dropped out and Harris took over, suddenly it switched, with new Democratic registrations outpacing Republican ones, as shown in this bar graph:
As you can see, the Republican National Convention gave the GOP a big spike in registrations. The Democrats are almost certainly going to get one next week. What will be interesting is whether it matches the Republican one.
What the chart doesn't show is that the new Democratic registrations are primarily women and young voters. These are groups that lean left and which Kamala Harris will be targeting hard. Of course, a net few hundred registrations per week does not a victory make, but it is a sign of enthusiasm. (V)
Trump's Approach to Abortion Is very Unpopular
Donald Trump is trying to finesse the abortion issue by saying it should be up to the states. The idea here is to pretend that it shouldn't be a federal issue, but to do so with a wink and a nod, to let anti-abortion activists understand that if there is a Republican trifecta and Congress passes a bill to ban abortion in the whole country, he would sign it. He just doesn't want to say this out loud because it is so unpopular.
But how do voters feel about leaving it to the states? A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows that 74% of women oppose leaving decisions about abortion up to the states. In other words, 74% oppose Trump's stated policy on the subject (not to mention his actual, much harsher policy). Here is the breakdown by party:
The poll asked many questions relating to abortion, and few of the results are favorable to the Republicans. Among all women 18 to 49, 75% think abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Among Democratic women 18 to 49, it is 92%; among independents it is 75% and among Republicans it is 47%. Among women 18 to 49, 53% are worried that they could not get an abortion if they needed one. Again in that group, 64% are worried about the safety of a future pregnancy and 63% oppose a national abortion ban at 15 weeks. A quarter of women wouldn't know where to get information about an abortion if they needed one. It goes on and on like that.
Trump's trying to finesse the issue probably won't work. Republican parties in some states are putting abortion bans into their state platforms. Others are defining abortion as homicide. If Kamala Harris pushes hard on this issue, she could ride it to the White House. (V)
For Some Conservative Christians, IVF Is the Next Battleground
While the abortion wars rage, some influential Christians want to expand the battleground to IVF as well. R. Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, is busy mobilizing evangelicals against IVF.
The argument is that to have much of a chance of success with IVF, multiple eggs have to be fertilized on each cycle. If the pregnancy takes, the unused ones are no longer needed. The choice is then to keep them around forever, which is very expensive, or destroy them. Mohler doesn't quite get the difference between a fertilized egg and a person, so he sees destroying a fertilized egg as murder. Maybe someone should show him photos of both, to scale. He probably also sees burning unneeded blueprints for a building as arson.
Politically, the anti-IVF folks couldn't have picked a worse time to do it. That is because Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) and his wife had their two children by IVF. In effect, Mohler is saying that the existence of the Walz children is immoral and a crime against nature. We don't think that will go over well with Walz or the general public, especially if Walz shows up on stage with the kids once in a while. Also, polls show that an overwhelming percentage of Americans approve of IVF and see it as pro-family. For example, a recent Pew poll puts the approval of IVF at 70% and the disapproval at 8%, with 22% having no opinion or not knowing what it is. Supporting the 8% group is not going to be a political winner. (V)
Project 2025 Could Be a Millstone around Trump's Neck
At first, nobody outside a tiny group of right-wing activists had ever heard of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation's 900-page plan to radically change the country in dozens of major ways. But Democrats have been talking it up a lot and now it is much better known. And the more people know about it, the less popular it gets. Here is how its favorability has changed from June to July in Navigator Research polls:
With Democrats, independents, and non-MAGA Republicans, the more they hear about it, the less they like it. Even among MAGA Republicans the more they hear, the less than like it even though it is basically a hostile takeover of the entire country by them.
As the plan becomes better known, specific aspects of it are getting their own favorable/unfavorable ratings. For example, replacing 50,000 civil service employees with Trump's lackeys is at -56 net support. Reducing federal protection for LGBTQ+ people is at -19 net. Banning mifepristone is at -26. Some items are more popular, though. Using federal troops to police the border (which is currently illegal) is at +11. Banning pornography is even.
Although Trump claims ignorance of Project 2025, many of his closest associates, such as Stephen Miller, helped write it. So, Trump's claim is nonsense. He knows exactly what is in it and supports most of it. Kamala Harris is going to make sure everyone knows this as well. (V)
Inflation Is Down
One of Donald Trump's best arguments is about eggs. They cost more than they used to and people don't like it. Of course, wages are up too, but he doesn't talk about that. In any event, the rate of increase of prices, which is what inflation really is, is way down. A new Consumer Price Index report out yesterday confirms this. CPI rose 2.9% for the last 12 months, the first time it was under 3% since July 2021. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 3.2%, the smallest increase in 3 years. For the past 3 months, core CPI is up only 1.6% on an annualized basis. This is very low.
The problem for Kamala Harris is that only people with at least a masters degree in economics understand any of this. To most people, since eggs cost more than they used to, there is still inflation. People don't understand that if the price of something is stable for several years but is still more than it was 5 years ago, that means there is no inflation. Inflation is the year-to-year change in prices, not this year's price vs. some historical price years ago. It will be a tough sell for her.
What she can try to do is cherry pick a few items and talk about them. Grocery prices are up only 1% compared to last year. People are very sensitive to that since they typically go shopping every week. One area where prices have gone up a lot is housing. That is not something most people notice, though. People don't buy a new house every week. And even for renters, it is less noticeable because many people have a 12-month lease and would see rent increases only when it is up.
There is a lot of speculation about what the Fed will do at its next meeting. If it lowers interest rates in response to the lower inflation, that helps some people and hurts others. It helps people with outstanding loans of any kind that are tied to variable interest rates. It helps businesses that want to borrow money to expand. On the other hand, it hurts people, especially seniors, who have money in the bank and live off the interest. That all said, if the Fed lowers interest rates in September, there will be a lot of news stories about "Inflation is finished" and even if people don't understand what inflation is actually, it will help the Harris campaign to be able to quote the Fed chairman and various economists about inflation finally being beaten and will help neuter Trump's attacks that it is her fault that eggs cost more than they used to. (V)
Biden Is Angry
Joe Biden is angry. At the leaders of his own party. Barack Obama didn't have the guts to tell him to his face that the show was over and he had to leave. Instead, he worked behind the scenes to get rid of Biden. Biden is angry with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for ruthlessly trying to get rid of him and essentially blackmailing him. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wasn't any better. The reality is that nobody dares to walk up to any sitting president and say: "Sir, you are old and feeble and your presence on the ticket will be a disaster for our party and the country."
Biden told one of his close associates: "Pelosi cares about the party, not feelings." Surprise. You don't get to be one of the most powerful speakers since maybe Joe Cannon if you don't put the party (and country) above anybody's feelings. In the early phase of The Great Removal, if Biden had taken the hint and gone gentle into that good night, there wouldn't have had to be a later phase. But he kept deluding himself, refusing to see what everybody else saw plainly: With him in the race, Trump would win in a landslide. In fairness, no one knew that Kamala Harris would be a spectacularly good candidate, and that Democrats would quickly coalesce behind her, but everyone knew Biden was a spectacularly bad one. Under those conditions, the upside of a swap clearly outweighed the downside, but Biden simply refused to see it. What every president needs is a court jester. In the olde days, kings had a court jester to amuse them and tell jokes. Tradition was that the jester, alone, was allowed to make jokes about the king. Anyone else who said what the jester said would be beheaded within the hour, but the jester could tell the truth, disguised as a joke, and it was tolerated.
Biden is so angry that he hasn't spoken to Pelosi since he ended his reelection bid. She probably doesn't care, as she is no doubt spending all her time trying to do what she can for the Democrats to capture the House. No time for soothing his feelings. And the more Harris soars, the more obvious it becomes that Pelosi was absolutely right and Biden was wrong. That can't feel good for the President. In particular, recall when Pelosi appeared on Morning Joe after the debate and clearly implied that he had to go, but without saying the quiet part out loud. Nobody attuned to politics could have missed the message. Watch at 5:33:
Biden is especially pained that Obama publicly supported him after the horrendous debate but privately told everyone Biden had to go. Their relationship went south at the end of Obama's second term. That's when Obama did his best to make sure Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2016 and not the sitting vice president (Biden). Normally, the president supports the vice president he chose himself. Obama clearly had his doubts about Biden even in 2016. That has to hurt.
On Monday, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Biden respects Pelosi and has no hard feelings. The latter part of that is simply a lie. She did what was needed for the Democratic Party and the country, his feelings be damned. She is doing a book tour this week and is suggesting that Biden be put on Mt. Rushmore. She doesn't mean it for a second, but she is trying to act like she wants to make amends. When you stay past your "best by" date in politics, this is what you get. Biden should have known that. (V)
Today's Presidential Polls
Mostly good news for Kamala Harris today. The Cook polls are great for her, even if she is still behind in Nevada. QU also has her ahead in the Keystone State and Florida might even be competitive. (V)
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 48% | 46% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| California | 59% | 34% | Jul 31 | Aug 11 | U. of Cal. Berkeley |
| Florida | 47% | 50% | Aug 10 | Aug 11 | Florida Atlantic U. |
| Georgia | 48% | 48% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| Michigan | 49% | 46% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| North Carolina | 48% | 47% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| Nevada | 45% | 48% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 43% | Jul 31 | Aug 11 | Franklin + Marshall Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 48% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
| Pennsylvania | 50% | 47% | Aug 08 | Aug 12 | Quinnipiac U. |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 46% | Jul 26 | Aug 02 | BSG + GS for Cook |
Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.
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